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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem


Typhoon Tip

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah that storm sucked in every possible way

I'm amazed Corey survived to play the squeezebox another day after that one. Just brutal. Do you remember when the other bust I posted was? I want to say it was Easterish a few years ago. Weird unexpected heavy snow band pounded I91 area from New Haven to Hartford out of nowhere. 

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6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I'm amazed Corey survived to play the squeezebox another day after that one. Just brutal. Do you remember when the other bust I posted was? I want to say it was Easterish a few years ago. Weird unexpected heavy snow band pounded I91 area from New Haven to Hartford out of nowhere. 

I do. I did a mini case study on it, because it was not far  from destroying JFK and LGA.

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28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Any strong E or NE flow just kills the valley. Dec 92 was another one 

March 13 wasn't all about that though. There was standing waves involved because the RI hole would not typically be there if it was mostly terrain related. Yeah the ENE flow doesn't help but it wasn't the primary factor in mar 2013. Also the BL was a little more NE so not nearly as bad as dec 92 for the valley. There were definitely standing waves involved...one of the more bizarre storms from that standpoint. I had never seen it before on that scale. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

March 13 wasn't all about that though. There was standing waves involved because the RI hole would not typically be there if it was mostly terrain related. Yeah the ENE flow doesn't help but it wasn't the primary factor in mar 2013. Also the BL was a little more NE so not nearly as bad as dec 92 for the valley. There were definitely standing waves involved...one of the more bizarre storms from that standpoint. I had never seen it before on that scale. 

The radar loops were incredible

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3 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

18z GFS brings 5-7" of snow to CHH with the Friday/Saturday morning storm.  It looks like a small or moderate storm, but if things went right could turn out to be much more, I mean that shortwave energy in the Pacific Jet, going under the ridge out west could spark a low over Brownsville, TX that could go through the GOM and up to Cape Hatteras, NC and then strengthen as it reaches the benchmark tapping into the arctic jet clipper and energy transfers to the coastal low, if this happens more so than modeled it will become a colder and snowier solution in future runs.  That central Great Lakes trough goes negative and boom goes the dynamite.

I don't follow the comings and goings of weather board characters much anymore but are you Blizz 24 ? 

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3 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

18z GFS brings 5-7" of snow to CHH with the Friday/Saturday morning storm.  It looks like a small or moderate storm, but if things went right could turn out to be much more, I mean that shortwave energy in the Pacific Jet, going under the ridge out west could spark a low over Brownsville, TX that could go through the GOM and up to Cape Hatteras, NC and then strengthen as it reaches the benchmark tapping into the arctic jet clipper and energy transfers to the coastal low, if this happens more so than modeled it will become a colder and snowier solution in future runs.  That central Great Lakes trough goes negative and boom goes the dynamite.

BL problems.  Especially for you.  

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I can’t even remember when we were this locked in per the progs this early.

2005 is prob the last time I can remember. Though cracks started appearing that year for the period around Xmas and beyond by the time we got to Dec 12-14. Right now, it doesn't look that way...but that could always change.

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2 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

The fact GFS also kept teasing central North Carolina for some snow this early is also noteworthy. Incredible and deep trough pattern coming up for this early. 

Yeah I don't typically pay close attention to down there, but that's some huge bending against climo there that early if they get any snow at all.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

March 13 wasn't all about that though. There was standing waves involved because the RI hole would not typically be there if it was mostly terrain related. Yeah the ENE flow doesn't help but it wasn't the primary factor in mar 2013. Also the BL was a little more NE so not nearly as bad as dec 92 for the valley. There were definitely standing waves involved...one of the more bizarre storms from that standpoint. I had never seen it before on that scale. 

Because even further to the SW in Westchester, I had 8-9". So it wasn't just a terrain thing..there were some weird subsidence zones that require a lot of explanation.

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30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2005 is prob the last time I can remember. Though cracks started appearing that year for the period around Xmas and beyond by the time we got to Dec 12-14. Right now, it doesn't look that way...but that could always change.

This look is much better for December and beyond than 2005, I think.

Dec 2005 only really had one event for the NYC area, and I don't remember the cold being as intense and long-duration as what is currently being modeled.

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37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2005 is prob the last time I can remember. Though cracks started appearing that year for the period around Xmas and beyond by the time we got to Dec 12-14. Right now, it doesn't look that way...but that could always change.

My main analog is a colder version of that year.

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