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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem


Typhoon Tip

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25 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Just waking up now (being 22 FTW) and got to say that 6z run of GFS is incredible to me. 

Even 12z GFS is off to a decent start to get plenty of snowless folks on the board. Despite being weaker and further east (so far), still a nice trend toward more snowy pattern comparing to couple days ago.

Me too-71 and I can sleep with the best of them still.  Also after being up for the eps last night....lol

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10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol yep, 3 AM bladder call now included quick Euro EPS run through and a restful sleep when seeing runs like last night. Up at 630 after 1 am bedtime. I will sleep in the spring.

Those 5 hour nights kill me now-can’t do it.  But weekends I have leeway.

 

nice GFS run!

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Same thing year after year, those saying big storms can't happen then they do, those saying no qpf then they get 1 plus, those saying rain then they get smoked , those claiming every threat is a blizzard then they smoke cirrus. Best is those who claim x,y,z and then post well I have not looked at anything. Fact is any scenario is possible in ANY 5 to 10 day pattern. But hey let's do this 

 

I didn't see anyone claim a big one cannot happen in the next 10 days. It def can. I just wouldn't favor it. I'd favor faster moving events. When I personally say "Big", I mean widespread over a foot. 6-10" might considered big by some...it's def a solid warning event. So I think sometimes people should specify what their subjective opinion of big is.

Not being favored and saying it absolutely cannot happen are two different things. I don't think anyone claimed the latter....maybe Kevin in one of his many musngs about the pattern, but that's just Kevin being Kevin...."nickels and dimes 2015 winter".

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I didn't see anyone claim a big one cannot happen in the next 10 days. It def can. I just wouldn't favor it. I'd favor faster moving events. When I personally say "Big", I mean widespread over a foot. 6-10" might considered big by some...it's def a solid warning event. So I think sometimes people should specify what their subjective opinion of big is.

Not being favored and saying it absolutely cannot happen are two different things. I don't think anyone claimed the latter....maybe Kevin in one of his many musngs about the pattern, but that's just Kevin being Kevin...."nickels and dimes 2015 winter".

Things never change

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

I'm cheering you on this year. It's gotta be wild growing up in the SE and then getting thrown into New England. May the coastal front be ever in your favor.

Thanks! It's bizarre seeing people writing 4-8" off as NBD. Like that's Raleigh's annual snowfall average haha.

 

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Wait until he gets his first taste of +SN 10 miles to his NW while he is +RN and 33°F.....................:lol:

Oh, you mean the classic experience I get almost every winter while living in eastern NC?

I don't think I've been any angrier than I was when 12" fell 20 miles to my NW while I got an inch of sleet during a storm in January of 2017 :lol:

 

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea I would like to see a true blizzard for him, a 50 mph super Windex super squall, Arctic wolves night with high winds and burst of squalls then a 20+ below night to get a great experience.  Welcome Blue may your balls not be .lol

Sounds like a good time! Count me in!

 

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

Me too-71 and I can sleep with the best of them still.  Also after being up for the eps last night....lol

Very impressive! I caved after watching Euro Op. 

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Just now, WxBlue said:

Thanks! It's bizarre seeing people writing 4-8" off as NBD. Like that's Raleigh's annual snowfall average haha.

 

Oh, you mean the classic experience I get almost every winter while living in eastern NC?

I don't think I've been any angrier than I was when 12" fell 20 miles to my NW while I got an inch of sleet during a storm in January of 2017 :lol:

 

Sounds like a good time! Count me in!

 

Very impressive! I caved after watching Euro Op. 

 You will have many more good times then not though now your up here.

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