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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem


Typhoon Tip

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Nope, No blockbuster but should get most on the board and go from there.

I didn't even mean a blockbuster....I was thinking high-end would be like a 6-10 deal....more like 4-8".

With a cold pattern and given the season, I would be more than satisfied with that....but could easily screw the coast.

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20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

EPS continues the party as far as it goes.  The nice thing about the past few runs is the consistency of reasonably snowy runs.

Love how you’re still lurking at 3am....as I post from the Bay Area where it’s 12:00am....lolz....be back tomorrow....need some December love in West Hartford please

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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

EPS continues the party as far as it goes.  The nice thing about the past few runs is the consistency of reasonably snowy runs.

It perked up the ridge out west again. Recent runs showed some PAC energy cutting into it and reducing it. This in turn caused a few solutions to come close by or west on some of the members. Now that the ridge rebuilt on this run...they were all redevelopers. Something to watch going forward. Some PAC energy might be a good thing is we want a good low to come by.

 

6z GFS is rather wintry. Major snow inland, snow and mix on coast.

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BOX is playing conservative (wisely) at this point

 
Friday onward...

Potential coastal storm Friday into Saturday. Seemingly quick moving
as an open wave, skirting S/E New England especially, rain/snow mix
possible, dependence on timing passage, daytime or nocturnal. Model
forecast guidance continues to waffle, including the preferred EC /
UKmet, a low confidence forecast. Additional coastal storms are
possible, however specifics are highly uncertain given perturbations
in the flow that are poorly forecast so far out in time. Little to
now confidence from Saturday onward
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