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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem


Typhoon Tip

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Yeah can't ask for much more than a deep trough where its progged.  We'll see what happens.  Better than if we were looking at the 7-14 day and seeing a +2SD ridge over the east and everyone panicking because you know anything fun is still weeks away (pretty much what skiers out west are doing right now).



We have been there before too, But I have also been here over the years and know what the results can be, I like it this way much better. Lol
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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I've been wondering if we see any southern stream cutting under that stout western ridge.... I'm sure La Nina climo would argue against it, but I can't imagine if we could just get some southern stream action entering the base of the trough.  Imagine that upper level pattern with an active southern jet.

The GFS guidance breaks that ridge down out west and PAC jet action. Not sure I buy it, but it's possible to an extent. That would introduce something like that.

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I almost wonder if the ginormous Siberian snow pack/areal surface coverage (particularly on top of the max backward diurnal tilt) is partial in the helping to raise 500 mb heights over that region of the arctic circle.  Those heights that keep bridging that region up there seem to persist in the absence of a terminating planetary wave event(s) ...which leaves DVM over a cold lower troposphere as a plausible in assisting/maintaining 500mb tendencies for at least modest positive anomalies. .. just an idea...

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So far I haven't seen anything to dissuade my thinking that anything that happens between ~ day 5 and D .. 9 or 10 is probably going to be quick hitting; that is 'probably,' not a certainty.

Again, there's way to overcome that... The two main ones I can think of is first,

...maybe similar to what Scott and Will brought up about the trough getting exotic enough to scoop some sort of S to NNE trajectory event ...which can move fast, but be so spatially large in the flow that you make up for it in translation-duration. 

The other is more a multiple stream phased scenario. That's probably the best way to get a "bomb" out of an otherwise saturated gradient flow where the balance wind is roaring too strongly for individual wave mechanics. 

We've actually seen both above modeled in GFS runs at one time or the other, over the past four days... But they never seem to last from one run to the next.  Although, the last three GFS cycles (reasonably agreed upon by the other model types) seem to have settled on some sort of a fast moving weak Miller B toward Friday...than perhaps another 2.5 or so days later.

So not a total loss... We're just being dealt a bit too much of a good thing...  I personally think as the flow relaxes post this uber meridional thing we may be left with enough vestige of western heights that an active Pac jet will be diverted S past 110 W in those extended means, and that would probably be running up underneath better confluence tendencies... I don't believe necessary we have to wait until the Solstice for that... but... Maybe past day 10.     

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8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/upa/gen-ctrmap-a.cgi?re=us&le=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=ln&yy=1960&mm=12&dd=11&hh=12&sc=1.0&ge=640x480&pg=web

 

 

would you have predicted one of the megopolis great blizzards in the next 12 hours from this look?

That's actually a pretty delicious look. Slower flow than our progged pattern. I prob wouldn't have predicted it to come as far north as it did but overall that's pretty good. 

 

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's actually a pretty delicious look. Slower flow than our progged pattern. I prob wouldn't have predicted it to come as far north as it did but overall that's pretty good. 

 

That’s the thing-kind of surprising NYC north did so well.

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