Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,505
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Dano62
    Newest Member
    Dano62
    Joined

Late autumn, early winter model mayhem


Typhoon Tip

Recommended Posts

The 18z GFS is fun to watch, but how realistic is it?  A triple phase superbomb the GFS is producing, could be a true sign that the potential is really great in the next two to four weeks.  If the EURO is showing a bomb in the day 9-10 range, and the GFS has a superbomb out 14 days, I think it is the models way of thinking that we can at least have the potential of a super phased bomb this month.  Plus the 18z GFS produces a 150 knot mid level jet streak over the ocean south of New England, that is explosive

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 3.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
6 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The 18z GFS is fun to watch, but how realistic is it?  A triple phase superbomb the GFS is producing, could be a true sign that the potential is really great in the next two to four weeks.  If the EURO is showing a bomb in the day 9-10 range, and the GFS has a superbomb out 14 days, I think it is the models way of thinking that we can at least have the potential of a super phased bomb this month.  Plus the 18z GFS produces a 150 knot mid level jet streak over the ocean south of New England, that is explosive

James don’t read into it too much...it’s fantasy fodder for sure.

doesnt mean there isn’t potential, but that’s weather sci-fi BS at its best.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm, it still matters.

Miller A's will suffer in a high velocity pattern...  too.  although, we could benefit from PWAT flux ... I think 1978 ...or may very late 1977 ...there's an example of a modestly intense Miller A that was exceptionally prolific in the buckets.

But, speaking to this run ..those aren't deep south lows.  They look like Miller B's with even worse pressure pattern signatures in the deep S.  More over, they look remarkable weak comparative to what is going on in the mid levels - it's all suspect.

 

To public perception, heh obviously it doesn't matter. 

Miller A/hybrid...whatever. I just mean these lows forming near the GOM to AR and move NE. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Miller A/hybrid...whatever. I just mean these lows forming near the GOM to AR and move NE. 

The best kinds for more west regions. Miller Bs worry me how late they can develop. Get a hybrid in there and tuck it under LI like feb 13 and me so horny. Although I think that was a pure miller B. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

You can have instances where two areas are hit with bombs in two weeks or less. See Albany area in 2003 and SE MA in 2015. Those occur more frequently compared to 100" in 4 weeks. 

Plus 1.  If Central MD can pull off 60 plus inches from 2 storms in one week (in Feb 2010), so can climatological fovored places further north like here.  It took 50 days to hit 90” in a anamolous pattern (with two near misses mixed in) so 100” in 28 days would take near perfection.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The best kinds for more west regions. Miller Bs worry me how late they can develop. Get a hybrid in there and tuck it under LI like feb 13 and me so horny. Although I think that was a pure miller B. 

My preference is over ACK to avoid some occluded..........POS

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Since the GFS shows two bombs in succession, I think one will at least be a mega bomb.  Also the EURO shows a closed 500mb low south of Marthas Vineyard., MA at day 9

i'm shocked that you think we will have a mega bomb. truly shocked

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There will be chances for all types of systems the next 2 weeks. The only thing that looks unlikely is a slow mover due to fast flow. We have northern stream dominance and a very tight gradient with no megablocks to try and offset so most systems will move right along. The trough digs deep enough at times that we could def see a gulf system but we will have plenty of chances for clippers and redevelopers and Miller Bs with the northern stream being dominant. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...