HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What happened in here this morning? I wasn't expecting semi-melts this early...I was thinking it would be more like 3-4 days from now when the D9 system disappears from model guidance Just wait until we are entrenched in weeks of BN cold only to see cutter-> whiff -> whiff. You'll have to raise suicide watch flags. Lol. I don't think that will happen but I like to keep myself mentally prepared to puff the cirrus pipe. & Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Happy Birthday!! Thanks man! Winters coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: You would take 60/61 over Feb 2015? That's impressive. February 2015 was unbelievable-but 1960-61 was a 2 month siege up and down the northeast and mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Happy Birthday Jerry!!! And many more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Happy Birthday Jerry!!! And many more! Thanks Jeff! A few days after my surgery last month there was concern but I guess i dodged a bullet. EPS looks fabulous as the signal goes on and on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Thanks Jeff! A few days after my surgery last month there was concern but I guess i dodged a bullet. EPS looks fabulous as the signal goes on and on.. Glad it worked out for you, Looks to be a great times incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 I didn’t see the bday on FB Jer. Wishing you the happiest , the happiest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 not an altogether unsatisfactory Euro evolution out there in time, though ...the usual uncertainty reasons lurk. folks need to remember ... these high fallootin undulatory movements in the atmosphere are spatial-temporal nightmares in the models ... intensity too... so, it's a decent solution for the idea that whatever passes through does so very quickly with lighter amounts. I saw a snow graphic with 2-6" with the 6 in a stripe over eastern zones. but push comes to shove... who knows if that wave will even exist in those positions in space and time on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I didn’t see the bday on FB Jer. Wishing you the happiest , the happiest Thanks Kevin! I think I have to change my privacy settings....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Euro has the analfront snows. Drops 1-2, lolli 3” in places that would be favored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro has the analfront snows. Drops 1-2, lolli 3” in places that would be favored The Euro showed 6"+ in the anafrontal snows in parts of New England.... nice to see that come back. Drops at least 1"+ on everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Happy birthday Jerry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 I feel like this is the time of year those anafrontal deals can work out... you have decent low level air masses that aren't well mixed like you have other times of the year. So it's not like you have to wait 8 hours for the low levels to cool after 850mb goes below freezing. The front goes through and the whole column drops quickly to get snow to reach the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 44 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: You would take 60/61 over Feb 2015? That's impressive. It's about location. I'd take 60-61 once over 10 2014-15s, because I was in NNJ back then, where the snows were more anomalous than they were in SNE - 3 storms 18-24" with a 12" paste bomb on 3/23 as the exclamation point. And because 14-15 was a good but could've been The Greatesttm if 3-4 big storms had not mega-busted for western Maine. Happy Birthday Jerry!!! And many more! He's now as old as I am! (For a few months) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The Euro showed 6"+ in the anafrontal snows in parts of New England.... nice to see that come back. Drops at least 1"+ on everyone. Yup. May end up advisory type deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup. May end up advisory type deal The take away is that it drops accumulating snow from SYR to BOS and everywhere between following the front. That's a much better outcome for everyone than trying to get one specific wave to form on the boundary and time it right. Today's run just had a traversing band of precip that changed to snow for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The take away is that it drops accumulating snow from SYR to BOS and everywhere between following the front. That's a much better outcome for everyone than trying to get one specific wave to form on the boundary and time it right. Today's run just had a traversing band of precip that changed to snow for all. I mentioned Feb 5th 16 earlier, a nice wave on a slowed front would be good or just a follow up 2 days later as depicted on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My reading comp. is pretty good...and there was a bit of an undertone there...but I figured he didn't mean that. Probably guarding against expecting Feb 2015. I believe they calculated the probability of another 90+" 30 day period at 0.000037%. People shouldn't expect that unless they plan on living another few dozen millennia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Don't post a whole lot on here but have to for old man Jerry. Jerry we have never met but I've read you since the old ne.weather newsgroups. Thank you for all the entertainment over the years and may the squirrels in front of your yard weigh 400 lbs right now Many more Happy Birthdays for you ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Jesus I was happy about my post..lol. Please tell me where I said slop and rain followed by cold. I thought your post was great and I got it instantly. When reading this thread over the past week it is just amazing how spoiled we have all been, especially folks in eastern and southeastern zones. Sounds like the possibilities are endless. My goodness it is just the beginning of the month and we are a million miles away from the furnace of October past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 26 minutes ago, tamarack said: It's about location. I'd take 60-61 once over 10 2014-15s, because I was in NNJ back then, where the snows were more anomalous than they were in SNE - 3 storms 18-24" with a 12" paste bomb on 3/23 as the exclamation point. And because 14-15 was a good but could've been The Greatesttm if 3-4 big storms had not mega-busted for western Maine. Happy Birthday Jerry!!! And many more! He's now as old as I am! (For a few months) Thank you tamarack! I should know your first name as I’m among the few here that would not need to say mr...lol. You stated the 60-61 argument perfectly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Happy birthday Jerry. I'll be joining you in 20 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Analfront has some EPS support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, TheBudMan said: Don't post a whole lot on here but have to for old man Jerry. Jerry we have never met but I've read you since the old ne.weather newsgroups. Thank you for all the entertainment over the years and may the squirrels in front of your yard weigh 400 lbs right now Many more Happy Birthdays for you ! Thank you!!! Funny thing is squirrels are fairly tubby this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Just now, wkd said: Happy birthday Jerry. I'll be joining you in 20 days. Thank you! And a preamble happy birthday to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Here's the funny thing about Feb 15, and anything extraordinary like that, and that is, that extraordinary outcome couldn't have been predicted either. Nobody knew/or thought that was coming in the door when the pattern was being depicted. I'm sure we were all hoping, but nobody knew that would have happened...especially for Eastern areas. Just like now....that incoming pattern in Feb 15 looked exceptional and had a lot of potential...but nobody would have guessed that outcome would have taken place..nobody. It could have flopped just like other great patterns did. But it delivered, and Hugely so. This looks exceptional too...especially for December. We really don't know whats going to walk through this door either?? It could be something very special(no one knows), or just mediocre at best, or anything in between? Point is, the upcoming pattern is looking about as good as it can look for what we all love, and that's all that can be said right now. Details to be determined obviously...just like any other potential great pattern. Huge outcomes can't be predicted in advance by looking at an upcoming great pattern...that's the whole mystery(good and not so good) behind the potential. Time will tell. No one should be expecting monster outcomes...but it sure looks promising...exciting anticipation ahead at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Happy Birthday Jerry hope you are having an awesome one!!!. Keep up the great posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah just the nature of ensemble members. I still would not expect every storm white..esp coast. With such sharp plunges of cold into Midwest...you risk the chance of lows coming too close for comfort. The good news is that the NAO isn't raging +. We pretty much have higher than avg H5 anomalies in Greenland the whole time. I agree...some mix def. expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: Thank you! And a preamble happy birthday to you! Happy 39th, old man winter!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Happy Birthday Jerry hope you are having an awesome one!!!. Keep up the great posts. Thanks Leo! A fun December (it would seem) for a change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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