Late autumn, early winter model mayhem

[OSUmetstud]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Twitter sucks. Nobody knows how to interpret or communicate which leads to terrible interpretations and assertions.

I should make some vague posts about the northeast us winter pattern there just to see if snowman19 and leo will grab them and run with it.  I'd hoped the character limit expansion would lead to better posts.  

[LoveSN+]

Really looks like the second, reinforcing trough, could bring some major cold. More so in the midwest, but something to be noted nonetheless.

[WxBlue]

I'm not seeing a reason to panic. Especially since we're only one day into meteorological winter.

Still plenty of opportunities in long range and it's not that difficult we'll score on something eventually.

[ariof]

10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

The anomalies across the ma se and the Midwest are pretty impressive. The war keeps sne in check to more modest cold anomalies through the next 10 days. 

12Z GFS has a week with lows below 0 at MSP, and highs barely above. Maybe some pretty epic LES off the lakes which are still plenty warm. Gets moderated some as it shifts east, although the core of the cold seems to shift east towards the week before xmas.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

I should make some vague posts about the northeast us winter pattern there just to see if snowman19 and leo will grab them and run with it.  I'd hoped the character limit expansion would lead to better posts.  

  So we know the cold will go into Midwest/Plains first. We know it will infiltrate eastward with succession. We know the origins are in NW Canada. I assume each succession will be led with some sort of low pressure giving snow, rain, or both. This won't be all snow for all. 

  The origins are cold. That's a fact. It's also early to mid December. Take into the time of year. Avg highs in the 40s...-10-15 departures would be very cold given climo. The cold will plunge into the Plains first where it will be most impressive and also build up with time. I am seeing over -20F departures...that is cold. Given any shallow arctic high building in...the anomalies may even be greater with sow cover.

  Ensembles will not tell the story. Given the stochastic nature of ensembles, a mean could be cancelled out by multiple members having low pressure track well east, well west, or overhead all at the same time. You need to look at the trough position...is it conducive for cold or cold shots? The answer is yes. The op runs generally agree wit the ensembles. With that in mind, one can assume that the op runs could be telling the truth with 510-516 thicknesses overhead at any given time..esp in the 11-15 day.

  Here is how I see this. This is not continuous bone chilling highs in the 10s or 20s for all, around here. This will be a pattern where although we sacrifice bone chilling temps...we probably will be rather active..or at least have the potential to be active. Expect a mix of events to offer a variety of ptypes over the next 2-3 weeks...hopefully more white. To me, this is a pattern that is ripe for those situations where you may get an intense cold shot after any storm departure..with the potential for less negative anomalies with approaching low pressure. So, with any of those post low pressure cold shots...it may very well get rather cold for a day or two. That's a classic look for this IMO. I feel the twitter mets are using ensembles verbatim...and are not being honest with it. You have to know how to interpret it. 

[LurkerBoy]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

  So we know the cold will go into Midwest/Plains first. We know it will infiltrate eastward with succession. We know the origins are in NW Canada. I assume each succession will be led with some sort of low pressure giving snow, rain, or both. This won't be all snow for all. 

  The origins are cold. That's a fact. It's also early to mid December. Take into the time of year. Avg highs in the 40s...-10-15 departures would be very cold given climo. The cold will plunge into the Plains first where it will be most impressive and also build up with time. I am seeing over -20F departures...that is cold. Given any shallow arctic high building in...the anomalies may even be greater with sow cover.

  Ensembles will not tell the story. Given the stochastic nature of ensembles, a mean could be cancelled out by multiple members having low pressure track well east, well west, or overhead all at the same time. You need to look at the trough position...is it conducive for cold or cold shots? The answer is yes. The op runs generally agree wit the ensembles. With that in mind, one can assume that the op runs could be telling the truth with 510-516 thicknesses overhead at any given time..esp in the 11-15 day.

  Here is how I see this. This is not continuous bone chilling highs in the 10s or 20s for all, around here. This will be a pattern where although we sacrifice bone chilling temps...we probably will be rather active..or at least have the potential to be active. Expect a mix of events to offer a variety of ptypes over the next 2-3 weeks...hopefully more white. To me, this is a pattern that is ripe for those situations where you may get an intense cold shot after any storm departure..with the potential for less negative anomalies with approaching low pressure. So, with any of those post low pressure cold shots...it may very well get rather cold for a day or two. That's a classic look for this IMO. I feel the twitter mets are using ensembles verbatim...and are not being honest with it. You have to know how to interpret it. 

I’ve alsp noticed Fisher has a bit of a warm bias.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

  So we know the cold will go into Midwest/Plains first. We know it will infiltrate eastward with succession. We know the origins are in NW Canada. I assume each succession will be led with some sort of low pressure giving snow, rain, or both. This won't be all snow for all. 

  The origins are cold. That's a fact. It's also early to mid December. Take into the time of year. Avg highs in the 40s...-10-15 departures would be very cold given climo. The cold will plunge into the Plains first where it will be most impressive and also build up with time. I am seeing over -20F departures...that is cold. Given any shallow arctic high building in...the anomalies may even be greater with sow cover.

  Ensembles will not tell the story. Given the stochastic nature of ensembles, a mean could be cancelled out by multiple members having low pressure track well east, well west, or overhead all at the same time. You need to look at the trough position...is it conducive for cold or cold shots? The answer is yes. The op runs generally agree wit the ensembles. With that in mind, one can assume that the op runs could be telling the truth with 510-516 thicknesses overhead at any given time..esp in the 11-15 day.

  Here is how I see this. This is not continuous bone chilling highs in the 10s or 20s for all, around here. This will be a pattern where although we sacrifice bone chilling temps...we probably will be rather active..or at least have the potential to be active. Expect a mix of events to offer a variety of ptypes over the next 2-3 weeks...hopefully more white. To me, this is a pattern that is ripe for those situations where you may get an intense cold shot after any storm departure..with the potential for less negative anomalies with approaching low pressure. So, with any of those post low pressure cold shots...it may very well get rather cold for a day or two. That's a classic look for this IMO. I feel the twitter mets are using ensembles verbatim...and are not being honest with it. You have to know how to interpret it. 

You sound like you are describing a 1980s pattern....cold-mix/rain/cold.

[powderfreak]

I love the look of this pattern for lake effect and adjacent orographic snows in New England mountains...big cold to our west, oscillating flow but seems to be some good periods of cold west/southwest flow which can be really nice in parts of NNE for getting lake moisture into the mountains.

Throw in northern stream energy and vorts to enhance the meso-scale processes... a very good pattern look overall with the trough to the west a bit.  Doesn't allow us to go to dry NW flow for long periods of time...actually sets up the more rare cold SW flow for lake effect.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You sound like you are describing a 1980s pattern....cold-mix/rain/cold.

Yeah.... that wasn’t a promising take.

Slop and rain followed by cold shots. That would blow

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You sound like you are describing a 1980s pattern....cold-mix/rain/cold.

No no..not at all. But to insinuate that it's not a cold pattern from looking at an ensemble muted mean...isn't really being honest. Sure the anomalies may be less here in the long term...but I feel like many are saying 30s-40s is what to expect. You could get quite the cold shot behind any low...whether it's close by or offshore. Also, get a sneaky scooter high with an approaching low, and lock those temps in the 20s too.  JMHO.

But, hopefully people are honest and realistic. I would not guarantee all snow.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah.... that wasn’t a promising take.

Slop and rain followed by cold shots. That would blow

Jesus I was happy about my post..lol. Please tell me where I said slop and rain followed by cold.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

No no..not at all. But to insinuate that it's not a cold pattern from looking at an ensemble muted mean...isn't really being honest. Sure the anomalies may be less here in the long term...but I feel like many are saying 30s-40s is what to expect. You could get quite the cold shot behind any low...whether it's close by or offshore. Also, get a sneaky scooter high with an approaching low, and lock those temps in the 20s too.  JMHO.

But, hopefully people are honest and realistic. I would not guarantee all snow.

Yea, I certainly would  not rule out precip type issues.

[dryslot]

So now its a fake cold pattern upcoming..Got it.

[dendrite]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Jesus I was happy about my post..lol. Please tell me where I said slop and rain followed by cold.

Where are people getting this crap? Gah. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Jesus I was happy about my post..lol. Please tell me where I said slop and rain followed by cold.

The last paragraph sounded a bit like that. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Where are people getting this crap? Gah. 

I dunno...lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Where are people getting this crap? Gah. 

My reading comp. is pretty good...and there was a bit of an undertone there...but I figured he didn't mean that. Probably guarding against expecting Feb 2015.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I dunno...lol.

I read your post as good Scott....I don't know either

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The last paragraph sounded a bit like that. 

I did not mean for that. I do think we may have lows come close by and get some nervous because of trough position (never bought into cold and dry)..but I did not mean 80s style. I was trying to build upon how the ensemble mean may not be picking up the day to day changes...in that the mean may be muted by a variety of members having all sorts of solutions. Pretty sure we had that in 2015 too.  I also think the cold gets more entrenched after the 10-12th or so.

[MJO812]

Euro is close with the coastal for next weekend.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Jesus I was happy about my post..lol. Please tell me where I said slop and rain followed by cold.

I don’t know.... maybe my reading comprehension is garbage, but it seemed like you were saying mixed precipitation events followed by cold.

It is what it is... it’s still really early down this way. I don’t start really expecting snow until after the holiday. We still need a lot of things to go right here

 

[CoastalWx]

In general, -(EricFisherforecast) is usually a good outcome.  I remember when he questioned the big windstorm a month ago.

[Ginx snewx]

54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully you can wrap your mind around the concept of frequency of occurrence.

 

Hopefully you can wrap your hand around this lol oh and 12 Z Euro yum

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I did not mean for that. I do think we may have lows come close by and get some nervous because of trough position (never bought into cold and dry)..but I did not mean 80s style. I was trying to build upon how the ensemble mean may not be picking up the day to day changes...in that the mean may be muted by a variety of members having all sorts of solutions. Pretty sure we had that in 2015 too.  I also think the cold gets more entrenched after the 10-12th or so.

Oh....you mean WAA from systems approaching in general..even if snow.

Ok.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro is close with the coastal for next weekend.

We snow

[dendrite]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My reading comp. is pretty good...and there was a bit of an undertone there...but I figured he didn't mean that. Probably guarding against expecting Feb 2015.

Is there ever a LR pattern for us that guarantees all snow? Feb 15 isn’t walking through that door. It seems some here were actually expecting a month like that and are disappointed to hear how Scoot sees it playing out. Nothing has really changed...it’s a great pattern look. No one should ever expect to pull -10F departures with 60” of snow. Everything went right that month...basically 162-0 and a WS title.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh....you mean WAA from systems approaching in general..even if snow.

Ok.

Yeah just the nature of ensemble members. I still would not expect every storm white..esp coast. With such sharp plunges of cold into Midwest...you risk the chance of lows coming too close for comfort. The good news is that the NAO isn't raging +.   We pretty much have higher than avg H5 anomalies in Greenland the whole time.

[mahk_webstah]

 Well the total irony of this last two pages of discussion, at least among some people, is that a situation where the cold comes in slowly and uses in is much better for people who like snow. We don't want to huge cold snap that overwhelms everything right away. By the way can we guard against having this thread become like The New York thread a year or two ago? It's starting to seem like that

[weathafella]

Well it’s fantasy land but next weekends euro is plenty wintry with snow.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Is there ever a LR pattern for us that guarantees all snow? Feb 15 isn’t walking through that door. It seems some here were actually expecting a month like that and are disappointed to hear how Scoot sees it playing out. Nothing has really changed...it’s a great pattern look. No one should ever expect to pull -10F departures with 60” of snow. Everything went right that month...basically 162-0 and a WS title.

Right, by no means am I trying be a Debbie. I mean...holy crap...when is the last time we had a look like this? Dec 2010??