AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 This is what it looks like at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 What’s the specific cause of the AAM being so negative? Looking back at most years the AAM doesn’t get this low even during stronger Nina’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 1 hour ago, HKY1894 said: What’s the specific cause of the AAM being so negative? Looking back at most years the AAM doesn’t get this low even during stronger Nina’s There is a known negative bias with that GEFS AAM chart. AAM is set to drop, but the charts at the links below show maybe a more realistic forecast with AAM dropping into the range of -1.5 to -2.0 on the Euro Ens. https://twitter.com/Met_khinz/status/931219907961937922 https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/931864343641194496 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Was searching to see where you found the plots and came across them on the University of Albany site. I also came across this data file. Does anyone know what columns 4-6 are a measure of? http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/research/gwo/ncep_ncar_2_amm.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Was searching to see where you found the plots and came across them on the University of Albany site. I also came across this data file. Does anyone know what columns 4-6 are a measure of? http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/research/gwo/ncep_ncar_2_amm.txt Click on this link (alt link from same site) and you can see the column headings - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/research/gwo/AAM.ERA.1990.2009.txt Columns 4-5 on your link are likely AAM and AAM Tendency...hard to tell on column 6. For an alternate, and longer, historical AAM record back to 1958, see - https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/gwo.data.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 14 hours ago, griteater said: Click on this link (alt link from same site) and you can see the column headings - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/research/gwo/AAM.ERA.1990.2009.txt Columns 4-5 on your link are likely AAM and AAM Tendency...hard to tell on column 6. For an alternate, and longer, historical AAM record back to 1958, see - https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/gwo.data.txt Thank you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 On 11/18/2017 at 11:44 PM, griteater said: There is a known negative bias with that GEFS AAM chart. AAM is set to drop, but the charts at the links below show maybe a more realistic forecast with AAM dropping into the range of -1.5 to -2.0 on the Euro Ens. https://twitter.com/Met_khinz/status/931219907961937922 https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/931864343641194496 GEFS forecasts from a week ago were indicating an AAM drop to something close to -4. Here's the latest forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 Super -NAO -EPO +PNA setting up in a few days. I wonder if there is a lag correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.