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Bob Chill

December 2017 Long Range Disco

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

One thing about the dry commentary...models won’t pick up on sw’s that can rotate through and produce light snow at any appreciable range.  So yeah, the pattern can be overall dry, but if it’s cold you may get a chance or two at a light event.

Totally agree. If we’re playing with a cold pattern we don’t necessarily need a big juicy low to produce. I’m sure plenty of folks here would be perfectly pleased with a moisture starved clipper that dropped an inch or two of cold powder on .1 qpf lol.

Anything we get in early December in the cities is gravy imo. Weird getting gravy before the meal but whatever it’s nourishment.

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Friday looks pretty good so far on the GFS...not sure about all levels but surface just above freezing

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Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

How far out?

117 on instant weather....still scoots east and the heaviest precip stays east of the bay...similar to 18z in that regard

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who broke the CMC model? it used to show us a blizzard every run no matter what the pattern was...till this year. 

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8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

New NCEP product?

gfs_namer_123_snodpth_chng.gif

        No, it's been on that MAG site for a while now.     It's a better way of looking at snow totals instead of just slapping a 10:1 ratio on model snow water equivalent.   It has been added to Tropical Tidbits too.

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700hvv.us_ma.png

That is an insane closed H7 clipper that tracks over the SE part of the area Saturday night. Doubt it verifies but that would be awesome rates.

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Think the GFS suite was close to the best, if not the best, of the season so far. The op splits the Fri-Sun period into 2 storms. The first is the late Friday into Sat coastal that looks to have little to no interaction with the northern stream and favors the bay eastward for the heavier precip. The second is a surface low and associated strong upper level energy that digs deep into Tenn/Kentucky then rotates through the southern portions of our region. This then looks to begin intensification as it pulls OTS. Snowfall totals for the first part show 1-2 inches the cities and west with 2 inches increasing to 10 or so inches towards the shore. Total snowfall for the whole period (Fri-Sun) is very roughly 2-4 cities and west and 4 inches quickly increasing to 6+ and close to a foot around the shore. The totals through the whole 16 day period are very nice with 6-12 showing just to the N and west of the cities. Had to laugh though. The DC snow hole holds on strong. :) 

This evolution is probably the one I favor the most with the current setup for our snow chances in our region. A coastal left to intensify on its own with a secondary potent level upper energy/ surface low follow up from the SW/W a day and a half later. Otherwise with interaction and/or phasing with the coastal and the northern stream we are probably left out in the cold as those to the north cash in through this period and we are left with pity flakes.

Think that with the coastal as depicted now and knowing the tendencies of the GFS on how it handles this setup I would not be surprised to see a slight intensification and adjustment westward with this feature. As far as the secondary, as depicted now it wouldn't take much for that to be a decent event for our region. A little more dig and a little tweaking to the trough and who knows....

As far as the ensembles, not going to dive deep into them but looking over the means and how the trough reacts I think they actually favor a solution similar to what the op shows. But i will leave that to others to verify. The overall run of the ensembles can't be beat. I see several very decent opportunities showing up on them. Overall snowfall through the cities has increased from both the 12z and 18z as well. We are now seeing 3 1/2 - 4 inches there and the overall the snowfall profile looks better as well in regards to seeing snow in the cities.

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Euro is coming in much slower as well as closer with the coastal and much more consolidated vs the strung out feature that the 12Z showed. We are now seeing decent precip reaching a good portion of the eastern shore. Euro weakens the surface low/upper level energy diving into the Midwest driving it far to the south where it looks to initiate development of a low on the trough of low pressure left in the wake of the first storm. This storm looks to be off of OBX but quite a ways OTS. Pretty much an uninspiring run on results as our region sees trace amounts while others to our west and south do much better, eastern shore does cash in though. Not going to get upset about it because I do see some possibilities on the run.  

As far as the EPS we do see some changes with the trough's look and evolution through the Fri-Sat period. Not necessarily bad, nor good, just different. Think we may possibly be seeing the ensembles keying on different energy or having timing issues for that time period. Not going to over think it at this point though. PNA holds strong through the period as well as the higher heights up top. We see a move to raise heights to our south through the gulf states at the end of the run. Overall decent run where we have decent opportunities until the end of the run where the east coast trough pulls northward somewhat. Even then we would possibly have opportunities but of the lower odds variety.

Really didn't know what to expect on the snowfall maps for the Fri-Sun period. But was pleasantly surprised to see a strong coastal signature through that period. The means are showing the heaviest band of snow through SE VA up through the central portion of the eastern shore (3.5-4) inches. The 2 inch line runs roughly 15 miles or so west of the cities with the cities riding the 2.5 inch line. Control is a nice hit for the eastern shore with 6-12 for the whole of the eastern shore with the cities clocking in with 4-5 inches. Not going to count them but over half of the members now have a coastal signature with snowfall. They mostly favor the heaviest band of snow anywhere from just east of the cities to the eastern shore. Many/most show the Balt/DC corridor in the roughly 4-6 range with several that show totals of roughly 10 inches or so. Overall this was a huge jump from prior runs. Snowfall totals for the whole 15 day period overall have shown little change from the 12z but now the profile is more in line with a coastal thrown into the mix.

 

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7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

0z EPS snow mean through the upcoming weekend. Pretty solid support for a light to moderate event among the individual members.

5a2522afa64ab_snowmean1.thumb.png.c76d529132dc63fd55a95c8eace02b34.png

Thanks.  From what I can tell off the ensemble maps, it looks like the ensembles like something around days 8-9. Looks like something goes through VA then bombs off the coast. My guess is that the mean jumps after that. Am I correct?  Thanks again. 

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I guess that's that...

Usually does snow til around December 20 around here anyway... so this would have just been a bonus.

 

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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Thanks.  From what I can tell off the ensemble maps, it looks like the ensembles like something around days 8-9. Looks like something goes through VA then bombs off the coast. My guess is that the mean jumps after that. Am I correct?  Thanks again. 

Not Cape but we see a jump roughly day 10 through 12. Not much there for 8-9.

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

Not Cape but we see a jump roughly day 10 through 12. Not much there for 8-9.

Yeah there isn't a ton of consensus as far as timing and track of possible storm(s), but days 9-12 looks like it could be pretty active. The mean does tick up over that period. Jumps up more beyond that, but way  too far out to bother with any analysis.

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