Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

December 2017 Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

Recommended Posts

I guess 8-9 days from now would technically be November but the other thread is kind of dead so I'll briefly discuss this here.

Bit of a hint of some kind of low off the EC on last nights EPS and this mornings GEFS around day 8. Figured it was worth mentioning so that if something turns out popping up then I can get the credit, lol. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

OP run definitely caught my attention towards the end of the run as well with all the blocking, some semblance of split flow out west, and cold dumping into the central/eastern US. Even if it is jumping on the pattern progression too quickly I don’t think many here would complain if it holds off until made to late December. Just in time for the holidays.

Overall the modeled pattern looks pretty good after a brief relaxation. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS really showing a beautiful pattern by the last few days of the run with a joined +PNA/-EPO ridge combo in addition to the negative NAO and AOs.  Probably is evolving the pattern too quickly, but love the blocking signal that keeps showing up.  

GEFS has been putting out some really nice looks for early December lately, but man today's 12z run is a thing of beauty at the end. And you're right, it is probably getting there too fast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think that the hints of an early start, are hints to us of an early start to tracking the cold outbreak, or the blocking episode, or the amazing modeled snowstorm, that is always ten days out, lol.

If we had half of the modeled blocks and snows actually come to fruition, we'd have a good start to the next Ice Age here in the Mid Atlantic.

And, I'd be out on yet another epic jebwalk.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Too bad it wont lose that western US trough, lol.

GEPS has a split flow shown late in the run as well.  At least trends are showing +PNA to get established.  Just need AO/NAO to help.  Tired of seeing 500 looking decent, but surface cutting through midwest....

Nut

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

GEPS has it going on as well with the -EPO & -AO/NAO look. EPS still with more of a western trough/SE ridge at day 15, but with all guidance showing big time HL blocking, one would think that any trough out west/SE ridge would get beat down going forward.

EPS looks like it's evolving to the same sort of pattern the GEFS is at the end, just taking slower, which is probably more realistic.  You can see the -NAO start to flex and beat down the SE ridge on the EPS in the last few panels.  Really basically the same look as the GEFS minus the PNA ridge.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS looks like it's evolving to the same sort of pattern the GEFS is at the end, just taking slower, which is probably more realistic.  You can see the -NAO start to flex and beat down the SE ridge on the EPS in the last few panels.  Really basically the same look as the GEFS minus the PNA ridge.  

Yup. Agreed. The big takeaway looking at the 3 global ensemble runs is the impressive HL h5 +height anomalies. The pattern progression/timing is subject to the usual model bias. It would be nice if a +PNA materializes at least for a time, but otherwise I think we can manage just fine, as long as there isn't a persistent deep trough out west somewhere.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That EPO ridge, wow. The NA ridge placement is even slightly better than 12z. Close to a bridge. Too bad its 15 days away..

Pretty symmetrical NH pattern....I'm guessing, like others have said, that this look stays at day 14-16 for several more days before we see it move forward in time.  A very strong signal tho for HLB..Wait and see but I'm getting popcorn ready!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, poolz1 said:

Pretty symmetrical NH pattern....I'm guessing, like others have said, that this look stays at day 14-16 for several more days before we see it move forward in time.  A very strong signal tho for HLB..Wait and see but I'm getting popcorn ready!

It probably is a bit rushed on the GEFS. Lets book that panel for around the 20th.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

GFS ensembles- this is the best Day 7-16 pattern I've ever seen

I still don’t see a major winter storm out of that pattern.  Certainly good looking 500mb but I am jaded when it comes to good patterns.  You can’t shovel potential.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Well if the JMA has a torch, it must be true. Seriously, has the JMA ever been right on anything, much less a forecast a month from now?

No it has not.  One thing I am thankful for is as it appears right now this December will not be like last year.   That was a lesson in pain.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF locked and unpinned this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...