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Bob Chill

December 2017 Long Range Disco

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Just now, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

True... I just want something locked in from 10 days out... sorta like 2009-2010

Dude we pretty much have the pattern locked in. It is pretty darn-near impossible to have a discrete event locked in at day 10.

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Dude we pretty much have the pattern locked in. It is pretty darn-near impossible to have a discrete event locked in at day 10.

Jan 16 and the first Feb storm in 10 locked in about 8 days out. Dec 09 was iffy all the way to 48 hours. I'd say Jan 16 was the greatest model accomplishment I've ever seen. So it can happen every once in a while. Transition months like Dec are notoriously tricky to get right from far away. 

 

ETA: I'd be surprised if we didn't at least see some flakes fly in the next 2 weeks. About as ripe as you can ask for in these parts for early season stuff. 

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This needs to be marked NSFW. Looks like a very significant snowstorm.

You can almost make out the anticyclonic flow just East of the Gulf Stream.....almost looks like a quasi Bermuda high blocking the baroclinic zone from going any farther East which in turn is backing the flow along the coast throwing precip back across the region. Thats a really nice setup verbatim.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Jan 16 and the first Feb storm in 10 locked in about 8 days out. Dec 09 was iffy all the way to 48 hours. I'd say Jan 16 was the greatest model accomplishment I've ever seen. So it can happen every once in a while. Transition months like Dec are notoriously tricky to get right from far away. 

Yeah as it turned out Jan 16 was remarkably locked in at long lead. That is pretty rare though. It is more likely though when we get clear cut, uncomplicated, epic patterns. That was a strong Nino with a perfectly placed absolute monster west-based block, and a favorable Pacific. That pattern would have been hard pressed to fail lol.

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12 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

True... I just want something locked in from 10 days out... sorta like 2009-2010

Let us know how that works out for ya......

I hope your pain tolerance is of the frigging charts....cause your headed for a world of hurt.

 

 

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah as it turned out Jan 16 was remarkably locked in at long lead. That is pretty rare though. It is more likely though when we get clear cut, uncomplicated, epic patterns. That was a strong Nino with a perfectly placed absolute monster west-based block, and a favorable Pacific. That pattern would have been hard pressed to fail lol.

I remember reading a lot about the remarkable verification from '96.

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I've been trying to find something to hate on with this upcoming switch and I honestly can't find a reason to 'meh' this.  So far, this is a decent looking setup for some kind of cold and wintry period.  

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Been away for a while and it looks like my early Christmas wish is coming through with the pattern change being advertised.  Loving how the major tellies are lining up for us.  While the talk of digital snow is already starting, I'm thankful to see a fun December in the offing.  

Looking forward to getting caught up and trackin some snow.

PS...been a while since I've seen a ridge bride like that on the 500's.  (I peeked last night from my phone)  WOWZERS!!  Even if it doesnt happen, all the other indicies look great to me.

 

Nut

 

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1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I remember reading a lot about the remarkable verification from '96.

If you're talking about the post-Christmas storm, I was visiting my folks in coastal CT at the time. I'd been tracking, as much as one could at that point. Went to NYC for the day and left in the morning to a forecast of light snow "with maybe the possibility of a little more." Came home that night to a blizzard warning and the Emergency Broadcast System activated. So at least that one '96 storm wasn't exactly a lock.

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3 minutes ago, somecallmetim said:

If you're talking about the post-Christmas storm, I was visiting my folks in coastal CT at the time. I'd been tracking, as much as one could at that point. Went to NYC for the day and left in the morning to a forecast of light snow "with maybe the possibility of a little more." Came home that night to a blizzard warning and the Emergency Broadcast System activated. So at least that one '96 storm wasn't exactly a lock.

4 days of lead time 20+ years ago https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/bz-mrg.pdf

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10 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Cool read, thanks. It was an incredible storm, especially literally on the CT coast, where there were 50+ gusts. Note this one excerpt though--this is what I remember, in S CT it was more like an 18 hour lead:

"As the weekend progressed and the storm began to track further north and west, the numerical and HPC guidance began to shift the forecast of the outer edge of the snow shield further north and west. This placed additional areas under the threat of heavy snow, including...southern New York, and more of southern and central New England. Forecasters in these areas had to play "catch up" by issuing Winter Storm Warnings with shorter lead times and forecasts with increased snowfall amounts."

Didn't have Amwx in those days, or would have known better. Just had NOAA weather radio, toggling between local stations, the Weather Channel and 56k dial up where you could get the NWS discussions.

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It’s an op run in uber LR  but 18z sucked.  Trough in the West at 500mb.  Rain and SE ridge popping. Lakes cutter Will wait for GEFS but that wasn’t what I wanted to see at all.  On to 0z.  GEFS doesn’t look like that. 

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

GEFS comes in drier, but the 12z was juiced up, so it's no surprise that the 18z didn't top it

It also comes in warmer.  Not gonna put all my eggs in this.  

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15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It’s an op run in uber LR  but 18z sucked.  Trough in the West at 500mb.  Rain and SE ridge popping. Lakes cutter Will wait for GEFS but that wasn’t what I wanted to see at all.  On to 0z.  GEFS doesn’t look like that. 

 

3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

GEFS comes in drier, but the 12z was juiced up, so it's no surprise that the 18z didn't top it

 

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

It also comes in warmer.  Not gonna put all my eggs in this.  

Really wouldn't worry to much about the 18z or the 06z op or ensemble runs. Not saying they are wrong but they do have a habit of going off the rails on occasion. I myself stick to the 00z and 12z for the most part. When I start seeing them going south is when I start to worry.

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

 

 

Really wouldn't worry to much about the 18z or the 06z op or ensemble runs. Not saying they are wrong but they do have a habit of going off the rails on occasion. I myself stick to the 00z and 12z for the most part. When I start seeing them going south is when I start to worry.

You also can't worry about only 1 run of 1 particular model. Chances are its just the GFS being the GFS with its occasional fluke run being tossed into the mix every now and then.

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

 

 

Really wouldn't worry to much about the 18z or the 06z op or ensemble runs. Not saying they are wrong but they do have a habit of going off the rails on occasion. I myself stick to the 00z and 12z for the most part. When I start seeing them going south is when I start to worry.

But why my friend.  We dismissed the off hour runs be less important or reliable as myth.  I’m not saying this 18z run is correct or not but it’s theoretically more recent in its data ingest than 12z. Unless I am mistaken which is almost always true.  

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18z GEFS retros things a bit- western ridge moves further west late in the run, and weakens some, and the mean trough shifts west with it. Pops a bit of a SE ridge. There were hints of this at 12z. Not panic time, lol. These features dont stay stationary indefinitely. And no signs of this on the EPS, yet.

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Just now, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

Where is the ledge.  Come on people... we have not even gotten to December yet!!!

No ledge.  But we do analyze every run both op and ensemble.   So this is part of the process.    

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A few comments:

1. The medium range should be cooler than models, maybe where light rain threats could be mixed with snow. 

2. A cross-flow, anti-wavetrain pattern rarely holds for more than a few days at a time. Models have this for more than a week straight. I think the cold air will either move in sooner, or have trouble moving in at all (SE ridge). 

3. Lots of moisture on models Dec 7-10. Probably 1 or 2 events, the colder it is, more digging and pressure, more precip will likely associate. 

4. I've seen this Northern Hemisphere progression maybe 20 times on models in many years. It always underperforms cold wise, and ends up being a big +EPO like +20-35 days from now. (On ensemble mean next few day warmth in United States is greater than cross-polar arctic cutoff cold anomaly, weird.)

5. Maybe a big snowstorm Dec 7-10, but that's about it in this pattern I think., mid-late December should warm up nicely. 

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