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Bob Chill

December 2017 Long Range Disco

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Looks like past day 11 a high wave number pattern emerges as Ventrice states, tables being set for a big event down the road possibly.

 

 

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1 minute ago, frd said:

 

 

Colder and Colder on the CIPS Analogs

 

 

 

 

Good.  Glad to see this slowly creeping into the 150 - 200 hr range.  Hopefully the Lake Effect jackpots...always love seeing those streamers go on for hours on end.

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This COULD be one of those extreme weather patterns that we compare all others to when all is said and done.  #cautiouslyexcited

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5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

This COULD be one of those extreme weather patterns that we compare all others to when all is said and done.  #cautiouslyexcited

I agree...The combo of the -AO/EPO on the 06z gefs is really something.  Someone, somewhere and most likely a large geographical area of the midwest and east is going to see some memorable weather for mid dec.  I know we all, including myself, care more about the details and what occurs regionally but Im getting excited to watch this play out!

gefs_epo_06.png.bfef0958950a31aa8b2fde1d5abf9202.png

gefs_ao_06.png.ebbeadd5fa80b57e2296a9a1cefb0390.png

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23 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I agree...The combo of the -AO/EPO on the 06z gefs is really something.  Someone, somewhere and most likely a large geographical area of the midwest and east is going to see some memorable weather for mid dec.  I know we all, including myself, care more about the details and what occurs regionally but Im getting excited to watch this play out!

gefs_epo_06.png.bfef0958950a31aa8b2fde1d5abf9202.png

gefs_ao_06.png.ebbeadd5fa80b57e2296a9a1cefb0390.png

 

Of even more interest,  and this is speculation,  but there are various factors that could have a third drop in AO as we near mid to late December. The atmosphere on many occasions, not all, but many, will set things into motion to balnace things out. So, it will be really cool to see how this plays out.

Hard to explain the joy of seeing these indicies modeled after years of disguist. And it would appear things are trending better and longer  :-)  

 

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As Bob had mentioned, the potential for snow in these parts might come more from clippers and southern slidders. Any big event might come towards the end as Sam 

spoke about here in his tweet. 

 

 

 

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Personally, I loved the gfs op run. Constantly walking the line and active flow. I'd much prefer to score once out of 4 chances instead of failing at our only chance. 

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

It's like a perminate floodgate into the conus  for cold air thru the entire run and at the end it unloading big time again . I loved the run :snowing:

Me too man. That's what I'm talking about. Not a PV hammer that dusts the orange groves. lol

We won't have a single clue about a discreet event until it's inside of 5 days or so. Might be tracking first flakes and/or event within a week or so. 

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Me too man. That's what I'm talking about. Not a PV hammer that dusts the orange groves. lol

We won't have a single clue about a discreet event until it's inside of 5 days or so. Might be tracking first flakes and/or event within a week or so. 

Echo all these thoughts. Op runs are getting increasingly active in the post-pattern change time. I like it. Preliminary flizzard watches for the end of next week and following weekend.

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Maybe I am wrong... and it is the 12z CMC... but it does appear to be cooking up a lil something at Day 10 down by the GOM, yes?

Plus its plenty cold at the 2M level... highs in the mid 30s day 9 and day 10

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Maybe I am wrong... and it is the 12z CMC... but it does appear to be cooking up a lil something at Day 10 down by the GOM, yes?

Plus its plenty cold at the 2M level... highs in the mid 30s day 9 and day 10

Yes it is..extrapolating beyond would have snow breaking out by nightfall...fun to look at

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think everyone here is going to really like the GEFS. Looks sweet.

I loved it. I actually liked the atl ridge on the means. Much better look for precip. D7-13 precip anomaly is sweeeet...

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_7.png

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4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yes it is..extrapolating beyond would have snow breaking out by nightfall...fun to look at

That's what I thought as well... and I wanted to make sure that somebody else saw the same thing lol... it would appear to be a good setup for a potential storm Day 11

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I loved it. I actually liked the atl ridge on the means. Much better look for precip. D7-13 precip anomaly is sweeeet...

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_7.png

LOL you beat me too it. Was just about to post this.

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somebody should post "its happening" as well...since it just might be...that was an impressive op run...I kept hitting the advance button just for 500mb anomoly and it was non stop blue over the east like it was on a merry go round and it didn't look like it was about to end...that is aces in my book..

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Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

North trend ftmfw!

We want it just like it is. Riding the northern edge of everything. The precip bullseye stripe is going to be rain most likely. 

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