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December 2017 Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'll complain about it being very dry post d8. One of the worst runs recently with mean precip after the cold settles in. 

Yeah I know it's not ideal. But whatever we are lucky enough to get might be frozen.  If we go the whole month without seeing flakes then I am headed to the Panic Room...for an extended stay.  And damn proud to do so.  Or if ORF gets measurable before we do.  Another catalyst  for panic and despair.

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33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'll complain about it being very dry post d8. One of the worst runs recently with mean precip after the cold settles in. 

Maybe the snow oppurtunities increase mid to late month as indications are the MJO may be in a better position. Anything is better than last year at this point, but I still want a lot of snow. 

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22 minutes ago, frd said:

Maybe the snow oppurtunities increase mid to late month as indications are the MJO may be in a better position. Anything is better than last year at this point, but I still want a lot of snow. 

I'm not greedy and I'm patient.  Looking forward to getting on the board as soon as possible. Just going for a walk with dog while snow is falling and not sticking would satisfy me to an extent. Don't think we cruise through the next 2 weeks without seeing snow at least fall. Gotta get beyond Wed before we have a chance as seeing flakes fly. Hopefully we're tracking first flakes in the med range shortly. Fri has a chance to morph into something. We're still a few days away from having a clear picture as to how things evolve with that feature. Could break our way. 

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     Gfs continues to show recurving typhoons.  HM posted on Twitter last week that recurving typhoons will likely cause bitter arctic outbreak(s). 

     Personally,  I just want a few inches this month while bitter air is around. I think things will start getting much more interesting after Christmas and into next month. Mainly because we do better in January with Ninas. 

     That said, I'm sticking with my 12/17-12/21 period for first substantial snowfall, but will gladly bust and give the honors to C.A.P.E. 

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If the the Friday thing continues to look slightly better over the next 48 hrs and then by tue runs we are looking at a decent event.....I will be convinced this is '13/14 all over again.  The end of the GEFS run reminds me a bit of the 13/14 look at H5 in LR...The modeled cold gets colder and storms cant miss! 

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I'm not a meteorologist, and far from it, but EVERY year the discussion about off-runs comes up and EVERY year a meteorologist chimes in to let everyone know that there is NO difference in the data input for 6/18z runs. They are just as important as 00/12z runs. In fact in some cases there is more data inputted into the off-runs. 

 

Anyway, there are a lot of shortwaves embedded in the fast flow, but I really like how deep the vort is digging so while my confidence is low I am liking the chances with this one for at least a minor event. 

And just for kicks, the 12-14th time frame is starting to catch my eye. 

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52 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I'm not a meteorologist, and far from it, but EVERY year the discussion about off-runs comes up and EVERY year a meteorologist chimes in to let everyone know that there is NO difference in the data input for 6/18z runs. They are just as important as 00/12z runs. In fact in some cases there is more data inputted into the off-runs. 

 

Anyway, there are a lot of shortwaves embedded in the fast flow, but I really like how deep the vort is digging so while my confidence is low I am liking the chances with this one for at least a minor event. 

And just for kicks, the 12-14th time frame is starting to catch my eye. 

I'm interested in hearing Dtkwxusaf's take!

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7 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I'm interested in hearing wxusaf's take!

Dtk is the resident NWP expert. He (and of others) have stated numerous times that the gfs verification scores don't vary much across the 4 runs. I've seen the off hour runs be the first to pick up an accurate trend and I've also seen them do crazy things. But the 0z and 12z also do crazy things. 

The thing about the off hour runs that makes it hard to have a lot of confidence in is that the other globals don't run so there's  nothing to compare it to. If the euro and cmc ran at 6 and 18z it would be pretty awesome. You could binge watch weather models 24 hours a day. Sleep and food would be optional. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Dtk is the resident NWP expert. He (and of others) have stated numerous times that the gfs verification scores don't vary much across the 4 runs. I've seen the off hour runs be the first to pick up an accurate trend and I've also seen them do crazy things. But the 0z and 12z also do crazy things. 

The thing about the off hour runs that makes it hard to have a lot of confidence in is that the other globals don't run so there's  nothing to compare it to. If the euro and cmc ran at 6 and 18z it would be pretty awesome. You could binge watch weather models 24 hours a day. Sleep and food would be optional. 

That's who I was thinking!  I always think of the 0z/12z runs having the most recent rawinsonde ingestion, but nowadays satellites practically tell all in that department.

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