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December 2017 Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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Just got a chance to look over the ensembles. 

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Snow mean looks really nice.

Just finishing up looking over the EPS and I like the improvements on what I see for Friday through the weekend. 

Thought the GEFS was a wash for the most part though. Some positives, some negatives, all minor though. 

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1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

That 12z eps look implies phasing possibilities are not entirely off the table.  That wouldn't be the most likely scenario right now, but watch the clipper action closely.

I thought about that.  But then I thought that a phase if it happened would help areas to our north...unless the clipper could realy dig.  To TN valley perhaps.

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12 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

That 12z eps look implies phasing possibilities are not entirely off the table.  That wouldn't be the most likely scenario right now, but watch the clipper action closely.

When I now see the models showing low pressure anomalies extending from the lakes LP to coastal LP it suggests to me that they may see the possibility and/or are maybe moving towards it.

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1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_7.png

I see it but can also see why it doesn’t slow down much...GL looks less than perfect in the NAO region I believe...not sure if that matter but I remember someone saying the -NAO helps slow things down and NE doesn’t need it as bad as we do.  

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6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I see it but can also see why it doesn’t slow down much...GL looks less than perfect in the NAO region I believe...not sure if that matter but I remember someone saying the -NAO helps slow things down and NE doesn’t need it as bad as we do.  

Seeing Greenland like that with such a threat is almost never good.  Being in the 5-day window is great seeing the waves though!  What I will be watching for is the differences in trends in the speeds of the two systems.

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46 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I see it but can also see why it doesn’t slow down much...GL looks less than perfect in the NAO region I believe...not sure if that matter but I remember someone saying the -NAO helps slow things down and NE doesn’t need it as bad as we do.  

There are pretty decent +H5 anomalies over GL at that time. In general, a fairly strong west based -NAO is beneficial for our region, as it tends to keep the storm track to our south. We cant always expect to see that look though, so "less than perfect" is often what we get. If you look at h5 rather then the surface, the biggest issue with that hr 144 panel are the +heights in the 50-50 region, which are stronger than in the NAO domain. We really want the opposite there- lower heights. If you look at the EPS h5 panels at days 11-12, you will see a much better look, with a solid ridge over GL, and lower heights underneath. This is more typical of the h5 look we want- one that can help to keep the storm track further south, and slow things a bit.

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