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December 2017 Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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29 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

wth have we failed at YET? the future? 

this is going to be a long winter

We’ve never had great patterns fall apart or FAIL to produce?? Historically we do better in that happening, so caution is all I’m implying until we get closer to game time.  I’m not chuck so don’t put me there. 

Yeah i hope it is a l o n g winter. 

Smh. 

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24 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Yup, and 13/20 show at least 3".

 

Which would be a good start to the December.

Not that it matters but this is a much more realistic snow map for the gefs......if you're looking at weatherbell and actually taking any snow product seriously you will be pretty let down.......

get_orig_img.gif

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32 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

That happens all the time though, since it's stretched out to 15 days. It's still very promising. 17/20 of the ensembles show at least 0.5" of snow. That's not too shabby

That's not what he's saying. If you look at the actual member solutions, many aren't snow but wxbell's algorithm is uber liberal and deeply flawed. 

I posted earlier that many members we're rainy before the snow maps came out. 

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS has a lot of precip in D10-15 and keeps temps cold. Long wave pattern is rock stable.

Operational Euro looked like it was trying to breakdown the North Pacific pattern toward the end of the run, which is in contrast to the GFS/GEFS/EPS. 

Has a lot more troughing over Alaska and a much weaker west coast ridge than the other models.

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