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December 2017 Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Still not a legit threat, but it's nice to see these popping up  under D10.  Signaling is there

The only "concrete" thing I can take away from the gfs op is active energy flow behind the big front. That could easily morph into sunny and chilly but for now ops seems to think there will be some activity dropping down the back of the western ridge after we cool down. About as much as you can hope for at these types of lead times. 

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2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

first flakes

 

 

Model algorithms like to show snow on the back edge of events like that but it’s just fools gold. It’s the past six hours precip combined with the instantaneous 850mb temps. In reality, it will just be breezy and chilly at that time.

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I will say this much. Once that front goes through, the atmosphere is spinning all around us. So at least we'll have a few shots it seems.

Yup. There’s going to be clippers, but those are short lead time events. Hopefully we can score one or two.

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