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December 2017 Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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We could see some snow at the end of the passage of that cold front on the 7th if that cold air rushes in. After looking at the latest 0z and the 12z run of yesterday, I have a feeling we are going to have multiple chances within a period of 7 to 14 days to have some real wintry weather. I think this is going to be the "December to remember".

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2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

We could see some snow at the end of the passage of that cold front on the 7th if that cold air rushes in. After looking at the latest 0z and the 12z run of yesterday, I have a feeling we are going to have multiple chances within a period of 7 to 14 days to have some real wintry weather. I think this is going to be the "December to remember".

Always so hard to score snow waiting for the cold to bleed in. We have scored on rare occasion but normally modeled snow is exactly that, modeled snow. 

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And the 00Z GEFS calms the masses down. No doomsday massive trough into the southwest. Nor no SE ridge popping its head into the southeast.

Generally the overnight GEFS falls in line with previous runs which are not the 18z. Some minor changes with the major player's positioning and strength but that is to be expected. Major takeaway from the run is that it looks to be a touch less aggressive driving the pv southward and has a generally less suppressive look over all through the period and this can be seen with the snowfall means maps as they pull the general snowfall profile northward. But this less suppressive look could also mean we are riding the line on systems coming through our region. I did see several very good looks through the period for possible storms. 

Of note for day 16 and beyond is that we are seeing weaker ridging and heights over the polar regions. But that is a concern for another day and most likely we will see changes on that over the coming days anyway.

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06Z shows a way we could possibly score. Hangs up the cold front to our south allowing enough time for the decent cold to bleed in before it develops a low and runs it along the front around day 7/8. Cooperative temps on the surface would probably be dependent on whether it was night or daytime event with the setup as shown.

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06z GEFS looks sweet to me just maybe not quite as sweet as 0z but the same general theme I believe.  At 500mb, its almost as if the entire Eastern half of NA is becoming one giant spinning PV because I don't see the -NAO block but lobes look to be rotating through like a parade which is evident in the 850 negative anomalies.  You can see at 384 another batch of chilly is working SE.  And the PAC remains solid looking to my untrained eye although not solid as 0z.  This is completely my view and you guys can slam my weak analysis.  But I like it.  Its evident the importance of the PAC to our weather.  

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Yea . Saw this. ...A hung up front and a ripple of low pressure could form and amplify just enough to swipe us with a light to possible  moderate event ...dependant on temps of course as you mentioned.  

6z  192 below...some strong vorticity coming thru Tennessee as that low strengthens a little Too late verbatim but worth watching 

500hv.na.png&key=758878eb64daef07108e43f408bff7ffe918702b27da48e627a54c116cce32c6

I would gladly accept the 6z gfs day 7ish.....possible light accumulation setting the stage for the polar airmass en route. Nothing like a little white on the ground with our arctic blast :-)
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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

06z GEFS looks sweet to me just maybe not quite as sweet as 0z but the same general theme I believe.  At 500mb, its almost as if the entire Eastern half of NA is becoming one giant spinning PV because I don't see the -NAO block but lobes look to be rotating through like a parade which is evident in the 850 negative anomalies.  You can see at 384 another batch of chilly is working SE.  And the PAC remains solid looking to my untrained eye although not solid as 0z.  This is completely my view and you guys can slam my weak analysis.  But I like it.  Its evident the importance of the PAC to our weather.  

Pretty good analysis! Sort of reading through the ens smoothing, looks like there is some impressive ridging over GL at times, but nothing really persistent.(can use the op runs to better see this) We can work with that if that's how it plays out, and as we well know, the NA blocking is almost always over-forecasted. The PV is going to be a major player, and again on the ens runs its a bit difficult to gauge strength and timing of the lobes rotating down because of member averaging/smoothing. The ops show it more clearly, but not something I would rely on too much until inside of 7 days.  What I am noticing on the ensembles in general lately is weaker NA blocking, or it is displaced too far east. The WAR needs to be watched as well- at this point it doesn't appear it would be too much of a hindrance.

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18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I looked a little more at December 2000 just now. There was a big Miller B that gave philly 9” near the end of the month. Take a look at the PSU ewall for the 27th-30th. Damn if that happened again we’d all be up on the Bay bridge...

It was worse than there just being a sharp cutoff. We were forecast to be on the other side of the cutoff and as far south as the DC metro area was under a Winter Storm Warning. We woke up to nothing. 

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Pretty good analysis! Sort of reading through the ens smoothing, looks like there is some impressive ridging over GL at times, but nothing really persistent.(can use the op runs to better see this) We can work with that if that's how it plays out, and as we well know, the NA blocking is almost always over-forecasted. The PV is going to be a major player, and again on the ens runs its a bit difficult to gauge strength and timing of the lobes rotating down because of member averaging/smoothing. The ops show it more clearly, but not something I would rely on too much until inside of 7 days.  What I am noticing on the ensembles in general lately is weaker NA blocking, or it is displaced too far east. The WAR needs to be watched as well- at this point it doesn't appear it would be too much of a hindrance.

This. Love seeing that and not just one big blob sitting there. Get them rotating like that and you always have the opportunity to score when one of them is pulling away.

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32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I looked a little more at December 2000 just now. There was a big Miller B that gave philly 9” near the end of the month. Take a look at the PSU ewall for the 27th-30th. Damn if that happened again we’d all be up on the Bay bridge...

I remember that (non)storm. There was supposed to be snow in Baltimore for the Ravens-Broncos playoff game. It ended up sunny and 35. I had a few flurries here, but places over in DE along the coast got a few inches.

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36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I looked a little more at December 2000 just now. There was a big Miller B that gave philly 9” near the end of the month. Take a look at the PSU ewall for the 27th-30th. Damn if that happened again we’d all be up on the Bay bridge...

That one was tougher to take for me than boxing day 2010. Ranks second for me right being march 2001. Other than the very cold in  December the only event of note occurred on the 19th or 20th. Area wide 1-4 from an anafront type deal.

Call was for 6-10 in the metro even when anyone with a little knowledge could see we had no chance. I believe ravens won their first playoff game against Denver the following day on the run to the super bowl championship. 

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1 hour ago, HighStakes said:

That one was tougher to take for me than boxing day 2010. Ranks second for me right being march 2001. Other than the very cold in  December the only event of note occurred on the 19th or 20th. Area wide 1-4 from an anafront type deal.

Call was for 6-10 in the metro even when anyone with a little knowledge could see we had no chance. I believe ravens won their first playoff game against Denver the following day on the run to the super bowl championship. 

I wasn't around this area for Dec '00 - March '01, but any parallels down this way to that winter, from what I know from you all that lived here then,  are not happy parallels for the most part. Between that late December miss and the March '01 fiasco, I wouldn't want a repeat of that this time around.

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6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I wasn't around this area for Dec '00 - March '01, but any parallels down this way to that winter, from what I know from you all that lived here then,  are not happy parallels for the most part. Between that late December miss and the March '01 fiasco, I wouldn't want a repeat of that this time around.

The only period of note was from Jan. 19th to around Feb. 2nd 2000. That was a really nice 2 week run. Other than that the years 97-2002 were tough to say the least.

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