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December 2017 Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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Just now, mitchnick said:

This would be huge if it was real too

With this 500mb map

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2017112912&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0

And this 6 hour precip map, there would be plenty more snow to fall as the 500mb Low pulls the precip north/northeastward

 

EURO.DAY 10.PRECIP.png

Shame it'll be gone in 12 hours.  I guess the point is not to look at specifics, because that'll change of course, but the general idea of cold is looking almost like a lock.  

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The signal on the GEFS is really picking up for a storm centered roughly day 7/8 as the cold pushes in. Precip amounts have once again increased with roughly half showing totals of .75+ with quite few an inch or more. Also seeing a little more enthusiasm for some potential snow as the mean now sees the 1/2 inch line through the cities with 3 members now showing decent snow of 2-3 inches through the metro corridor.

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7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The signal on the GEFS is really picking up for a storm centered roughly day 7/8 as the cold pushes in. Precip amounts have once again increased with roughly half showing totals of .75+ with quite few an inch or more. Also seeing a little more enthusiasm for some potential snow as the mean now sees the 1/2 inch line through the cities with 3 members now showing decent snow of 2-3 inches through the metro corridor.

If we look past our past failures and pessimism,  it’s really a solid pattern as depticted for winter weather of some kind.  I know we have failed much closer in time but that 500mb look is hard to dismiss.  

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