December 2017 Long Range Disco

[Ralph Wiggum]

Yeah...we should have expected a relentless press of Arctic cold all season long with no relaxation.

Exactly....seems like a very brief relaxation as high latitude ridging shifts around and the 3-wave strat event bears down on the N Hemi.

[Bob Chill]

Pac firehose lol

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Pac firehose lol

 

C'mon Bob.  Ease up.  The view from the basement is sometimes cloudy.

[Vice-Regent]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Yeah...we should have expected a relentless press of Arctic cold all season long with no relaxation.

The problem is that once it goes away it doesn't come back in this climate until March when it doesn't matter anymore.

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

C'mon Bob.  Ease up.  The view from the basement is sometimes cloudy.

A bag of cheetos, a 60 watt lightbulb, and a folding table and chair is totally fine with me. It's the internet connection that screws it all up. 

[pasnownut]

9 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

The problem is that once it goes away it doesn't come back in this climate until March when it doesn't matter anymore.

??  ok.  Hope your just playing, or maybe you havent been following along.  Noteably different players on the field this year (at least for now).

Step back a few pages and get caught up.  Not saying tis gonna snow, but it will at least feel much more seasonal than past few years, and looking further out, AO/NAO look like they are trending favorably for us.  

Nut

[showmethesnow]

36 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

??  ok.  Hope your just playing, or maybe you havent been following along.  Noteably different players on the field this year (at least for now).

Step back a few pages and get caught up.  Not saying tis gonna snow, but it will at least feel much more seasonal than past few years, and looking further out, AO/NAO look like they are trending favorably for us.  

Nut

Put a global warming spin on everything he posts and you will get a better idea what is driving his comments. 

[BristowWx]

silly question but I'll ask.  I noticed CMC tends to run colder than GFS 2M temps in the short term like under 48 hours.  I assume GFS is better.  I also see NAM runs colder.  Like for Thanksgiving 2M temps at 18Z are about 5-6 degrees colder...NAM about 3-4. 

[dallen7908]

Exciting time to be a Moosonee weather weenie; at least 6 chances for snow during the next 10 days (12 UT GFS).   Hopefully, in 10-20 days will be tracking lows 1200 km south of Moosonee. 

[Bob Chill]

If the general pattern that the ensembles are showing for early Dec are correct then we'll prob start getting teased by the ops with fantasy digital snow. Still early but towards the end of the week I expect some weenie runs incoming. Some of the looks might be more typical of how we can get snow and not whacked out crazy solutions.

[frd]

Surprising to me 

 

 

[BristowWx]

26 minutes ago, frd said:

Surprising to me 

 

 

Better warm now than end of month.  I guess.  

[CAPE]

32 minutes ago, frd said:

Surprising to me 

 

 

 

Not to me. EPS has been warmish for several runs now, from mid next week into the first week of December. There has been a more pronounced SW trough showing up on the EPS for a time, which would favor ridging in the east. Rolling the advertised pattern forward, improvement in sensible weather would occur after the first week of December for our region. It will take some time to get anomalous cold back into nearby Canada, where it can be delivered to the central/eastern US. As long as we keep seeing the advertised HL blocking, including a -EPO look, I am not worried. Plus the weeklies that came out yesterday, based off yesterdays 0z run, looked quite good.

[WxUSAF]

16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

 

Not to me. EPS has been warmish for several runs now, from mid next week into the first week of December. There has been a more pronounced SW trough showing up on the EPS for a time, which would favor ridging in the east. Rolling the advertised pattern forward, improvement in sensible weather would occur after the first week of December for our region. It will take some time to get anomalous cold back into nearby Canada, where it can be delivered to the central/eastern US. As long as we keep seeing the advertised HL blocking, including a -EPO look, I am not worried. Plus the weeklies that came out yesterday, based off yesterdays 0z run, looked quite good.

Yeah, this is my feeling as well.  Keep showing that beautiful blocking in all the right places and I'll let the pattern evolve.  Even as shown, I would bet that period ends up pretty close to climo temps at the surface.  The precise location of a trough on our side of the planet in the D10+ time period has been moving around on the ensembles, but the blocking has been quite consistent.  I'm plenty good with that for the first week of December.  

[BristowWx]

CPC shows warm coast to coast 8-14...I’m always worried..but I put stock in very little long range guidance..I have learned our weather comes down to luck quite often.  And we always seem to trend warmer than advertised.  If it’s not just right it’s all wrong.  No wiggle room for us.  

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, this is my feeling as well.  Keep showing that beautiful blocking in all the right places and I'll let the pattern evolve.  Even as shown, I would bet that period ends up pretty close to climo temps at the surface.  The precise location of a trough on our side of the planet in the D10+ time period has been moving around on the ensembles, but the blocking has been quite consistent.  I'm plenty good with that for the first week of December.  

I agree. Not even close to a torch look. Probably would end up close to average during the advertised "warm" stretch.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, this is my feeling as well.  Keep showing that beautiful blocking in all the right places and I'll let the pattern evolve.  Even as shown, I would bet that period ends up pretty close to climo temps at the surface.  The precise location of a trough on our side of the planet in the D10+ time period has been moving around on the ensembles, but the blocking has been quite consistent.  I'm plenty good with that for the first week of December.  

Perfectly said. Bitter cold and a good snow pattern are often 2 different things. We're going into Dec with the best look since 2010. Boxing day redux! 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Hmmm... maybe Earth is just really warm right now. October was the 2nd warmest on record. Otherwise, pattern is pretty classic for cold. 

[SnowLover22]

Perfectly said. Bitter cold and a good snow pattern are often 2 different things. We're going into Dec with the best look since 2010. Boxing day redux! 

Wait why would you be hoping for a Boxing Day redux. Wasn’t that bad for us and good for New England.


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[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Models really saturating the idea of -NAO. In this ENSO I think it's the start of a longer pattern

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.

[Cobalt]

3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Models really saturating the idea of -NAO. In this ENSO I think it's the start of a longer pattern

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.

Link gives me a 404 error

[Kmlwx]

2 hours ago, Cobalt said:

Link gives me a 404 error

It's because of the period at the end. 

[smokeybandit]

5 hours ago, Cobalt said:

Link gives me a 404 error

404: WInter Not Found?

[CAPE]

I was just comparing the EPS and GEFS over the last several runs. Although the HL features are very similar(and favorable), the EPS develops a deeper and more persistent trough out west than the GEFS days 10-15. If the GEFS idea is correct, there is a quicker progression, with a ridge developing out west, and there should be some colder air poised to move towards the east coast by the end of the first week in December. Euro still has a trough and associated cold anomalies out west, with the east coast remaining under weak ridging at day 15. Looks like the pattern is clearly heading in the same direction on both, but if the GEFS is correct, it would be colder sooner in our neck of the woods. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

I was just comparing the EPS and GEFS over the last several runs. Although the HL features are very similar(and favorable), the EPS develops a deeper and more persistent trough out west than the GEFS days 10-15. If the GEFS idea is correct, there is a quicker progression, with a ridge developing out west, and there should be some colder air poised to move towards the east coast by the end of the first week in December. Euro still has a trough and associated cold anomalies out west, with the east coast remaining under weak ridging at day 15. Looks like the pattern is clearly heading in the same direction on both, but if the GEFS is correct, it would be colder sooner in our neck of the woods. 

Maybe a blend of the two is in order? Euro family notorious for keeping energy and trofs out West too long.....GFS family notorious for being too fast with the pattern and rushing the changes too quickly. Truth probably lies in the middle......hopefully.

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Maybe a blend of the two is in order? Euro family notorious for keeping energy and trofs out West too long.....GFS family notorious for being too fast with the pattern and rushing the changes too quickly. Truth probably lies in the middle......hopefully.

Probably. As it is they aren't too far apart. Hopefully in future runs there isn't any notable divergence.

[showmethesnow]

34 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I was just comparing the EPS and GEFS over the last several runs. Although the HL features are very similar(and favorable), the EPS develops a deeper and more persistent trough out west than the GEFS days 10-15. If the GEFS idea is correct, there is a quicker progression, with a ridge developing out west, and there should be some colder air poised to move towards the east coast by the end of the first week in December. Euro still has a trough and associated cold anomalies out west, with the east coast remaining under weak ridging at day 15. Looks like the pattern is clearly heading in the same direction on both, but if the GEFS is correct, it would be colder sooner in our neck of the woods. 

Was looking at that this morning. That troughing out west is giving me horrible flashbacks to last year. Overall though, get rid of that feature and we are probably good to go.

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Was looking at that this morning. That troughing out west is giving me horrible flashbacks to last year. Overall though, get rid of that feature and we are probably good to go.

I was having those flashbacks a few weeks ago lol. With the upcoming modeled pattern, I am not worried about it. We are seeing the needed improvement in the NPAC and the continued favorable AO/NAO look. The western trough should  be a transient feature.

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I was having those flashbacks a few weeks ago lol. With the upcoming modeled pattern, I am not worried about it. We are seeing the needed improvement in the NPAC and the continued favorable AO/NAO look. The western trough should  be a transient feature.

IF.... the GEFS and the EPS are correct with the trough and lower heights sagging towards Hawaii then we probably see that SW troughing shoved eastward as ridging builds from its west, induced by the Hawaiian trough.  GEFS is a little more aggressive in that regard. 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

IF.... the GEFS and the EPS are correct with the trough and lower heights sagging towards Hawaii then we probably see that SW troughing shoved eastward as ridging builds from its west, induced by the Hawaiian trough.  GEFS is a little more aggressive in that regard. 

Lets hope the Pacific continues to morph into a generally favorable look as modeled, and is stable for a while. Nina climo supports a trough out west, so I am not expecting to see a +PNA lock in or anything. Ideally the Nina is weak, and short lived, or never fully develops. If the advertised blocking is real and stable, we should be able to overcome a less than ideal Pacific at times.