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Legitimate Snow Potential


AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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La Nina is kicking, but mostly below the surface.

We are rocketing into -AAM

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There was a graph of current pattern, and pattern of last few months -AAM propagating nicely and uniformly toward the Northern Latitudes /Poles in time for Winter. 

 

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Strong cold air, held in place by -NAO creates a push, and maybe event around Thanksgiving

 

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40 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Many of the ensembles are much warmer too, 50s. It looks like a timing miss, and when the cold comes first in that long wave pattern, models always trend warmer.  

But the 850s are quite cold.  I just don't like the trough position...seems we would want it further west like around LA when it starts to turn negative.  

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Classic La Nina in Washington.

Even the "storm" we get to enjoy tonight will be mostly light showers, then seasonable temps and DRY thru early December.

The Midwest is getting treated to occasionally heavy rain and driving conditions on highways there are absolutely incredible with low visibilities and forward vision cut off not only by torrential downpours worthy of Harvey in Houston, but also by plenty of spray thrown up by passing trucks and crazy demented drivers in a hurry going in excess of 90 mph. These are very very fun, enjoyable highway conditions, even better than jebwalks in a 7 foot blizzard with -20 conditions and 55 mph NE wind gusts with torrential snow - and I will be DENIED all fall and winter, as long as the La Nina shall endure, which may well be until late 2023.

La Nina Climatology indicates much above precip in the Midwest, much below temps. They will get all the rain that I crave, and then they will get utterly destroyed by record snow this winter.

Of all storms this fall/winter, we will always get only the scraps - or nothing at all, while the Midwest comes out the WINNER, with the lion's share of all the heavy rain and or heavy snow, EVERY TIME. Midwest may even end up with the distinction of getting to enjoy frantic water rescues in midwinter! There is nothing better, than to participate in a frantic, life-threatening water rescue in the low sun season, with the water temperatures in the middle 30s and a current straight from Hell.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro says very La Nina like fast N Jet no coastal keeps any slp headed ENE and well OTS.

Looking at the latest ESP the jet streak running up the coast doesn't look bad, not to mention that over the last couple couple of days of runs we have seen the jet take a more south/north trajectory. But I do agree, there is a very real chance that this heads OTS.

 

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And once again we see an improvement on the Eps for a potential coastal. Unbelievable the changes we have seen on the EPS from 2 days ago to what we are seeing now. Temps for Thanksgiving have flipped from warm anomalies to large negative departures. From a trough in the west to ridging. From higher heights from our region up to the blocking around Greenland to now a pv planted just above the lakes with a deep trough extending into the gulf. 

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19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

And once again we see an improvement on the Eps for a potential coastal. Unbelievable the changes we have seen on the EPS from 2 days ago to what we are seeing now. Temps for Thanksgiving have flipped from warm anomalies to large negative departures. From a trough in the west to ridging. From higher heights from our region up to the blocking around Greenland to now a pv planted just above the lakes with a deep trough extending into the gulf. 

It’s almost like you’re wishing this to happen and it’s working so keep going!  We are all counting on you

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I went thru all 50 individual eps members and while I agree that there has been some better trends with the mean, there isnt a single eps member that shows this as a significant coastal storm unless you live out over the ocean, and even those couple of members have a rather stretched out slp. One thing I am seeing on most members is the speed of the kicker headed out of the N Plains. The N jet, while showing some amplification, just seems too progressive. Could one of the N vorts catch the S Jet and change the game as we get closer? Sure. If the Southern energy wasnt so far South/amplified into the GOM I would be more enthused because the -nao, even given the fast flow in the N Jet, is helping to amplify the N Jet but because the vorts are so far apart in each respective jet they dont have a chance to phase. This is actually a case of the SW Ridge being too strong imo and causing too much amplification in the S Jet. There is still alot of energy moving around around the N Jet and one of these could resolve and trend more favorably. My point is the euro suite isnt pointing toward a widespread Thanksgiving coastal storm unless you live in the SE or out in the open water.....for now.

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