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November 17-19 Wind/Rain/Snow


Hoosier

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8 hours ago, geddyweather said:

Thunderstorms on the warm side, and then solid snow on the backside wrap around? LOCK IT IN. :lmao::weenie:

For real, the 3k has some eye candy, but I have to agree with the questioning of the thermodynamic profiles along with low's intensity and location. Hasn't been a low-980 storm south of the toll road in awhile (at least in my memory at present, I should research once I get home).

Was autumn b4 Sandy. 2011? Oct or late Sept. 981 mb in NWOH iirc

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Brutal lake shadow off of Lake Michigan. That looks pretty extreme though and I'm guessing it wouldn't play out to that extent if this type of track/strength actually plays out.

Purple's over mby, smh..Fun to look at tho. One of these months, it'll be the real deal. Gonna enjoy another round of Gusty winds, which have been a theme so far. If this cycles back thru in winter, it will be impressive for this region. DVN only office talking SN that I've seen for this time around.

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3 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Purple's over mby, smh..Fun to look at tho. One of these months, it'll be the real deal. Gonna enjoy another round of Gusty winds, which have been a theme so far. If this cycles back thru in winter, it will be impressive for this region. DVN only office talking SN that I've seen for this time around.

LOT talked about it a bit this afternoon, but they mentioned the western 1/2 being more favored.

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Track aside, I give a bit more weight to the NAM thermal profiles as it should do a better job resolving situations like this where dynamic cooling is a big factor.  Not even going to speculate on any amounts but at this point, imo, much of LOT's area will change over. 

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The GFS is showing a little bit more snow each run.  The 06z run showed a decent window for snowfall after the changeover from eastern Iowa points east through the eastern lakes.  Accumulations will likely be DAB in many locations due to the wet ground, marginal temps, and lack of heavy snowfall rates.  Still could be a nice window of light to moderate snow to make it look pretty wintry out there for a time.  35-45mph wind gusts simultaneous with the falling snow could make it look pretty legit for a short time.  We all better enjoy whatever happens since it looks pretty quiet the following 7+ days lol.

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2 hours ago, King James said:

F it, I'm in

Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk
 

Should be a somewhat interesting day even though snow amounts will be kept in check... assuming it changes over.  Any scenario ranging from no changeover anywhere in LOT (which I would lean against) to a period where it rips is on the table.  Then in my area there is the added complicating factor of a still-warm Lake Michigan, and how much of a role that may play in precip type while winds are blowing onshore.  Speaking of the lake, that area near the shore should get some pretty good winds... I would expect a period of advisory criteria there although no advisory yet.

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Should be a somewhat interesting day even though snow amounts will be kept in check... assuming it changes over.  Any scenario ranging from no changeover anywhere in LOT (which I would lean against) to a period where it rips is on the table.  Then in my area there is the added complicating factor of a still-warm Lake Michigan, and how much of a role that may play in precip type while winds are blowing onshore.  Speaking of the lake, that area near the shore should get some pretty good winds... I would expect a period of advisory criteria there although no advisory yet.

Lk is your friend...lake is your enemy! That distinct shadow zone in mid-winter is a Bonanza zone, but not in Nov. Surprisingly breezy here this evening. Stiff SE wind and cool temps. Has that feeling like winter when a good storm is setting in. Been too long since a decently strong system took this track. 

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1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

Lk is your friend...lake is your enemy! That distinct shadow zone in mid-winter is a Bonanza zone, but not in Nov. Surprisingly breezy here this evening. Stiff SE wind and cool temps. Has that feeling like winter when a good storm is setting in. Been too long since a decently strong system took this track. 

Yes! Lake Michigan is my least favorite thing ever in November! haha

I wonder if we'll be able to change over to snow in West Michigan tomorrow evening. Of course, it doesn't look like a great chance according to the models, but then I have seen this before where they underestimate the dynamic cooling that can occur...and we get covered in 1 to 3 inches of cement snow.

 

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1 hour ago, blackrock said:

Yes! Lake Michigan is my least favorite thing ever in November! haha

I wonder if we'll be able to change over to snow in West Michigan tomorrow evening. Of course, it doesn't look like a great chance according to the models, but then I have seen this before where they underestimate the dynamic cooling that can occur...and we get covered in 1 to 3 inches of cement snow.

 

Nevermind accumulations, I'd be quite satisfied to see my first legit flakes flying..baby steps;)

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