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Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion


RIC Airport
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1 hour ago, VABILLUPS1 said:

12z Euro just went HAM - 6"+ for most of southside HR and NE NC but super sharp cut-off. Peninsula only 1-3" nothing for RIC but getting closer.   

Yep.  980 low east if Hatteras,, 300 miles east.  Starting to get real intersting.  7-9' for Oceana according to to Euro.  Would be nice to see GFS shift further west.

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Had nice bay effect snow showers this morning, it has managed to put down a nice dusting. 

About the Wed/Thu coastal, I'm trying not to get carried away. A few more steps west and it'll be a sleetfest for VB. AKQ still holding onto rain/snow mix until Thu 6z.

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Snow becoming more and more likely for SE VA.  Euro, CMC, GFS, RGEM and NAM all onboard.  NAM has a very strange precip field considering position/strength of low and overall track.  The others have significant snow 4+".  I'm rooting for the Euro 6+!  Could this become major?  Synopically odd to see a winter storm generate in the Bahama region, move NNE and bring us major snow to SE VA though.  It will be interesting to watch.

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16 minutes ago, Suffolkweather said:

Snow becoming more and more likely for SE VA.  Euro, CMC, GFS, RGEM and NAM all onboard.  NAM has a very strange precip field considering position/strength of low and overall track.  The others have significant snow 4+".  I'm rooting for the Euro 6+!  Could this become major?  Synopically odd to see a winter storm generate in the Bahama region, move NNE and bring us major snow to SE VA though.  It will be interesting to watch.

 

16 minutes ago, Suffolkweather said:

Snow becoming more and more likely for SE VA.  Euro, CMC, GFS, RGEM and NAM all onboard.  NAM has a very strange precip field considering position/strength of low and overall track.  The others have significant snow 4+".  I'm rooting for the Euro 6+!  Could this become major?  Synopically odd to see a winter storm generate in the Bahama region, move NNE and bring us major snow to SE VA though.  It will be interesting to watch.

Hope there are no mixing issues for SEVA

 

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AKQ AFD...

Latest 01/12Z models are into fairly good agreement with the pattern, though some notable differences persist. The ECWMF continues to be a little more aggressive at bringing deep moisture and therefore higher chances for pcpn to the local area while The GFS is slightly driest/farther offshore. The 12Z NAM had some peculiar secondary band NW of the main axis of precip along the coast (and was showing significant accumulating snow into the Piedmont). The 18Z NAM has genly gone away from this idea. Ultimately, will depend on how rapidly the northern stream and southern stream mid/upper level flow can phase, but its beginning to look as if at least SE 1/2 of the CWA will receive significant precip from late wed aftn/evening through Thu morning. Forecast is mainly a blend of the GFS/ECMWF which now brings a period of likely to Cat PoPs (60-80%) into NE NC and SE/eastern VA mainly by Wed evening, gradually shifting off to the NE as the sfc low further intensifies offshore wed night/Thu. Sfc dew pts and therefore very dry air looks to be hard to dislodge farther to the NW, so would anticipate a sharp cutoff in precipitation across NW 1/2 to 1/3 of CWA. Highs Wed mainly in the mid- upper 30s, possibly around 40 far SE. Critical thicknesses support all snow inland, to a changeover to rain or rain/snow mix along the SE coast Wed early evening before a change back to all snow. Mainly a 5th period event, so too early for a watch, but HWO mentions this potential storm and will continue to closely monitor trends on this system. First cut at snow accumulations favor highest amounts over interior NE NC/SE VA and the eastern shore (approximately ASJ to PHF to WAL). Most of this occurring from 00Z to 12Z Thu. Very little model guidance depicts higher snow amounts west of I-95 (even the ECMWF would support little to no snow amounts in the Piedmont). Lows Wed night mainly in the 20s, except upper teens NW. Drying from WSW to ENE on Thu , and will have high chc to likely PoPs until early aftn on the eastern shore, tapered to a dry fcst across SW/W 1/2 of the CWA. Windy and cold with highs mainly ranging from the upper 20s to lower 30s.

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Gonna be right on the edge in HR metro. Key will be how long it takes for the changeover from rain or rain/snow mix to all snow. Certainly looks like a couple of inches at least but could be a lot more if that changeover occurs quick enough. Somewhere around N.News to Suffolk or Wakefield area is going to jackpot with 6+.  

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1 hour ago, EverythingisEverything said:

Just watched Jeremy Wheeler on Wavy TV 10, he ran their in house model and said well it basically took the snow away after a brief mix, but said he doesn't think it's right.  He seemed unsure of the forecast but went ultimately with 2 to 4 for SEVA with mixing in the beginning.  

Yea, looked  pretty  pathetic here with nothing just west  of the  coast. He also showed gfs and euro accumulations and they werent  much either. I guess he just decided to assume NWS was right to issue a watch.

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All I read is how it's coming west... They want it to come west... They get snow more often than we do. I understand the wanting it to snow, but what they want is ridiculous. They want snow at the expense of everyone else from I-95 east to the coast. It's like they're rooting for us to get nothing but rain.

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Pretty good for another decent snowfall for Hampton Roads. The following is a list of snowfalls 4.0" or more since records began, beginning with the most recent. Looks like we'll be adding to this list.

 

Norfolk Snowstorms 4" or more (since 1891)

5.3” January 7, 2017

5.5” February 26, 2015

8.5” January 28-29, 2014

14.2” December 25-26, 2010

6.5” January 30-31, 2010

5.0” December 26, 2004

7.7” January 2-3, 2002

4.7” January 25, 2000

7.1” February 3-4, 1996

6.2” January 6-8, 1996

9.0” February 24, 1989

15.4” February 17-19, 1989

4.4” January 7-8, 1988

5.2” February 5-6, 1984

13.7” March 1-2, 1980

6.5” February 9-10, 1980

12.4” February 6-7, 1980

4.0” January 31, 1980

5.3” January 5-6, 1980

7.0” February 18-19, 1979

5.1” February 7, 1979

6.2” February 2, 1978

7.5” March 25, 1974

9.1” January 8-9, 1973

4.2” March 26, 1971

5.1” February 9-10, 1967

4.2” January 19, 1967

4.8” January 29-30, 1966

9.4” January 26-27, 1966

5.4” January 30-31, 1965

5.2” January 16-17, 1965

6.3” February 26-27, 1963

4.2” January 28, 1962

4.0” March 1-2, 1960

11.4” December 11-12, 1958

4.1” January 14-15, 1957

5.3” January 19, 1955

4.7” January 11, 1955

12.4” February 10-11, 1948

5.8” January 31-February 1948

5.3” March 8, 1947

4.2” February 23, 1947

4.5” January 8-9, 1944

4.0” December 20, 1942

5.8” February 27-March 1, 1941

4.6” March 24-25, 1940

5.8” January 23-24, 1940

6.0” January 8, 1940

8.8” January 16, 1939

11.0” February 7, 1936

5.7” January 27, 1936

7.2” December 29-30, 1935

9.0” December 22-23, 1935

6.0” March 10, 1934

6.0” February 25, 1934

4.0” January 29-30, 1930

11.0” March 2, 1927

4.0” January 10-11, 1927

4.9” March 13, 1926

5.5” January 25, 1926

6.0” February 15, 1922

7.4” December 11-12, 1917

5.1” February 13-14, 1916

4.0” December 12, 1915

5.0” March 22, 1914

6.5” March 12, 1914

7.0” March 6, 1912

5.0” March 3-4, 1912

7.0” January 7-8, 1912

4.0” January 17-18, 1911

4.0” January 31-February 1, 1910

5.5” March 20-21, 1908

4.0” March 24, 1906

6.4” December 15-16, 1904

7.0” February 10-11, 1904

8.8” February 15-17, 1902

6.0” February 23-24, 1901

13.5” February 11-14, 1899

4.0” January 28-29, 1899

11.0” December 2-3, 1896

5.6” February 7-8, 1895

6.6” February 25-26, 1894

9.8” January 19, 1893

18.6” December 26-28, 1892

6.7” November 29, 1891

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They might hold off on the blizzard warning up until tomorrow afternoon, but I believe it will be issued. Norfolk/Va Beach/Northampton county maybe?

In the point and click forecast on the NWS page, it says 28-33 sustained with gusts up to 47 mph. I noticed mets are less conservative with the blizzard warning anyway since it doesn't really matter if obs don't exactly verify the warning. Not like anyone will notice if the winds gusted to 34 instead of 36 mph, or if the visibility was 1/3 mile instead of 1/4.

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There is potential for Richmond to remain below freezing for up to 6 straight days. All depends on whether it goes above freezing later today. (AKQ has a 32F forecast) The next blast of cold will guarantee below freezing highs until at least Saturday or Sunday before a warm up begins. If this happens, it will be the longest subfreezing stretch since February 1996. It's not too uncommon to go 3 days in a row below freezing, but beyond that, it becomes increasingly hard to do. 

Most consecutive days highs 32F or below at Richmond

1. 12 days (January 23 - February 3, 1936)

2. 8 days (December 29, 1917 - January 5, 1918) and (January February 7-14, 1899)

3. 7 days (December 25-31, 1935) and (December 10-16, 1917)

4. 6 days (February 1-6, 1996 and 4 previous occurrences)

5. 5 days (January 6-10, 1988 and 4 previous occurrences)

**Recently there were 4 days in a row February 12-15, 2016

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
402 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

VAZ095-097-098-041200-
/O.CON.KAKQ.BZ.W.0001.180104T0000Z-180104T1800Z/
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
402 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Travel will be very
  dangerous to impossible, including during the morning commute
  on Thursday. Tree branches could fall as well. Total snow
  accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are expected, with locally
  higher amounts up to 12 inches. A trace of ice is possible as
  well this evening in sleet and freezing rain.

* WHERE...Norfolk/Portsmouth, Chesapeake and Virginia Beach
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will
  cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant
  drifting of the snow is likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you.  If you get
stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

akq (2).png

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