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RIC Airport

Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

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13 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

STILL not even a winter weather warning for the Richmond area yet... ha..a joke guess they will wait till 5pm

Ridiculous 

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Ric Airport  ...True but even with a low  est 1-3 /ice threat  a WWA should of been issued at least this morning 

Thats been known for hours now...

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3 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Ric ...True but even with a low  est 1-3 /ice threat  a WWA should of been issued at least this morning 

Thats been known for hours now...

RIC is never prepared

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Here is the excerpt from AKQ FD...very conservative as usual. 

Have also kept the RIC metro in the 1-2 inch range for now.
May need to issue advisories to the
north of the warning and also likely just east of the I-95
corridor, but will hold off doing so until this afternoon to
examine the new guidance coming in to determine the areal extent
of the advisory.

As far as ORF goes, it's looking like a lot of cold rain. Low level NE/ENE flow off the 50 degree ocean is certainly not doing us any favors. I'm still open to the possibility of a slushy coating if the precip rolls in early enough in the morning. Good luck to everyone!

 

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Well, the trucks better be out because I have to drive back to my Nova house tomorrow morning I can't get stuck in Richmond. I'm coming up from the Outer Banks so I don't expect any bad weather until Williamsburg or further north on 64. But I'll probably leave around 7 tomorrow morning. Places like Farmville may be the local jackpot area. Hope this one Nails you guys in the Richmond area.

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12 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Ric Airport  ...True but even with a low  est 1-3 /ice threat  a WWA should of been issued at least this morning 

Thats been known for hours now...

Yeah, if anything, they should've issued a Winter Storm Watch and then downgrade it to a WWA later if necessary. I see that LWX has included Albemarle and Augusta, and Nelson Counties to a watch. 

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Watch just issued!

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
250 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

VAZ048-061-062-068-069-509>516-090400-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0004.181209T1200Z-181210T0900Z/
Fluvanna-Cumberland-Goochland-Amelia-Powhatan-Western Louisa-
Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-
Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Including the cities of Bybee, Central Plains, Cunningham,
Lake Monticello, Nahor, Palmyra, Troy, Angola, Guinea Mills,
Hawk, Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Goochland, Earls, Mannboro,
Scotts Fork, Amelia Courthouse, Chula, Denaro, Jetersville,
Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams,
Clayville, Genito, Louisa, Mineral, Ashland, Mechanicsville,
Bon Air, Midlothian, Chesterfield, Chester, Colonial Heights,
Richmond, and Sandston
250 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Wet snow, moderate to heavy at times will develop Sunday
  morning and continue through the day. The snow may mix with rain
  at times, especially closer to I-95, as temperatures rise above
  freezing. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Some light
  icing is possible Sunday night as temperatures drop below
  freezing.

* WHERE...Portions of central Virginia including the Richmond
  Metro.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Sunday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions and
  potentially dangerous travel on Sunday into Sunday night. The
  wet nature of the snow will also allow it to stick to tree limbs
  which could cause some isolated outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

MRD

http://www.weather.gov/akq

 

 

akq (2).png

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 Btw they started on the roads 2 days ago... But with that last few runs it's not gonna matter much whats on it.... Again... we may have to start hoping for less of a jog North soon.. ugh 

I'D CASH out now if I could if it guaranteed what that last NAM run showed. .ha

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Yeah that's what I saw..post it if u see it updated.......Even tho much more over 6 I think will be a long shot in most of that 4-6 area

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http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USGA0132&animate=true

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atlpac-wide&product=wv-mid

 

Early radar and water vapor loop Hallucination

Yes I know this is the intellicast radar but you still can see how far the precipitation is getting ... Def making it bit father in west TN then east. . Hopefully we can start bumping that up on the east side...

On the water vapor nice blow up on the south side

 

 

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December 8, 2018

this Saturday night

930 PM EST

 

***  Preface:  This writing focuses ONLY on RICHMOND, VIRGINIA  ***

 

Gang --  I researched after several iterations of data that poured in today on tomorrow's Dec. 9, Sunday's snowy event scheduled for Richmond, VA.  Bottom line, for Richmond, is I'm expecting 5" to 8" of snowfall, with HIGHER amounts tapered SOUTH of Richmond and WEST of Richmond.  Lower amounts fanning further North & East.   I thinking Petersburg, for comparison may wind up with 6" to 10" there.  

I think the event will start as SNOW, between 6 AM to 8 AM Sunday morning, for the Richmond area.

Then, around 4 PM Sunday, it's appearing there's going to be a mixture of rain & snow from 4 PM onward Sunday.  As this transition occurs after 4 PM, it's also conceivable a mixture of ice pellets, (sleet), and perhaps freezing rain may become apparent, as you'll have to keep an eye on the air temperature.  Remember, freezing rain can only occur when temperatures at the surface get to 32° & below, but the air temperature need not be freezing for snow or ice pellets to occur.

Each successive iteration I've been watching since 00Z last evening to 6Z this morning, to 12Z this Saturday morning keeps on INCREASING the amounts UPWARD for Richmond.  However, there's a TIGHT gradient between amounts & as liquid as little as 2-3 counties EAST of Richmond, so busting on amounts will be higher in East Richmond, rather than West Richmond, where it's appearing a better solid lock on wintery weather there & in Chesterfield county will be more prominent.

In fact, Chesterfield county was looking like a PEAK local snowfall amount projected by this morning's 12Z, Sat., WRF indicating 1 foot, (12"), over thataways.  

I generally ignore the NAM model as I find it's way overplayed on wintery weather events, so I'll only post what I believe to be more representative & capable of happening, down below.

Another trick here is that once 4 PM onward comes around, not all the QPF will fall as solid form.  Once the rain hits, that'll reduce & compress the snowfall depths, beyond 4 PM.  So, I'm thinking the snowfall depth is likely to be greatest, in the late afternoon, just before changing over to the rain snow mix, around 4 PM.  

I.  Amounts for Richmond

It WILL be HUGE variances spread out across the metro Richmond area.  If you're living in Midlothian -- you'll get the HIGHEST amounts.  If you're living in Mechanicsville, to East Richmond, that's where the lowest amounts will be.  It's not going to be the same everywhere so don't expect it.    

Here are the projection numbers of snowfall based near Richmond, VA for Sunday, Dec. 9th:

00Z, Sat ECMWF -->>  5.5" for Richmond

12Z, Sat ECMWF -->>  8" for Richmond 

6Z, Sat GFS -->>  1.7" for Richmond

12Z, Sat GFS -->>  3.4" for Richmond (MOS: Trace to 2")

18Z, Sat GFS -->>  4.0" for Richmond

12Z, Sat, H-rap -->>  5.6" for Richmond to 7 PM  Rain-snow mix 1 PM to 5 PM, East Richmond

18Z, Sat, H-rap -->>  8.6" for Richmond

12Z, Sat, WRF -->>  9" Richmond; but 12" Chesterfield County, betwen 8 AM Sunday - 1 AM Monday;  8 AM to 4 PM snow; then rain-snow mix 4 PM, Sunday to 1 AM, Monday.

12Z, UKM  -->>  Between 7 AM to 7 PM, 0.68" of QPF, liquid-equivalent.

Referring to UKM's QPF above, This means if it ALL fell as snow in those 12 hours, on a 10:1 ratio given the surface temperatures expected then this would translate to 6.8" of snowfall ~~ approx. 7" of snow. 

** There WILL be compaction AND MELTING, too, once rain mixes-in **

II.  Timing.

Timing looks to start about 7 AM Sunday, Dec. 9th, continue all-day long Sunday, in to Sunday night, concluding 1 AM Monday morning.  All snow & wintery mixture ends by sunrise, Monday morning.

III.  Measuring Snow.

If you'll be measuring snow, do so ONLY over exposed, FLAT grassy areas away from trees, away from buildings, and away from other structures, and make several measurements nearby in UN-drifted areas, and average up the number of readings, and divide by the number of measurements taken.  Snowfall depth measurements are NOT taken from the highest heap of snow you see.  It doesn't work like that.  

IV.  The Surface Low Details

At 7 AM Sunday morning, Dec. 9 --

The surface low will be situated in extreme Southeast Georgia, (29.82"), headed Northeastward.

At 1 PM, Sunday afternoon, Dec. 9 --

The surface low is to be located about 50 - 75 miles Southeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, (at 29.69", deepening), headed Northeastward

At 4 PM, Sunday afternoon, Dec. 9 --

Surface low to be located about 30 to 100 miles South of Beaufort, North Carolina.  Nam & ECMWF is closer to the Eastern North Carolina coast.  Gfs is farther out, away from the coast, as deep as 29.56", still deepening.

After 4 PM surface low slows its forward speed Sunday night, and takes a rightward bend to the East Northeast, about 100-200 miles off the coast of the outer banks of North Carolina by 10 PM Sunday night.   By this time the damage has already been done.     

V.  Upper features.

A broad upper-trough, whose trough axis runs meridionally across the state of Alabama will be in this position at 7 AM Sunday morning.  The vorticity lobe axis will stretch from Western North Carolina to New Orleans, LA at that time, 7 AM Sunday.  This trough will de-amplify with time, flattening & lifting out, exiting the Carolinas' coastlines by 4 PM Sunday.

An upstream kicker will be gliding across the Gulf south states of South Louisiana & Mississippi by 7 PM Sunday, which then exits the Carolinas' coasts by 7 AM Monday.

Richmond, VA will be under a stout right-entrance region of an exiting 250 mb 150+ kt jet max aloft, which is one of the enhanced regions for lift from Sunday morning to Sunday afternoon.  A broad region of moderate upper divergence values will be centered over Virginia & North Carolina from Sunday morning thru early Sunday afternoon, before pulling off the coast.

VI.  Thicknesses

GFS forecast thicknesses from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM Monday start at 539 dm at 7 AM and gently rise to 541 dm by 7 PM. (What's this thickness all about & why care about it?)  Those who watch winter storms are aware of the 1000 mb to 500 mb thickness values, and knowing where the 540 dm thickness line is at.  Thicknesses at 540 dm & lower often correlate with snow & those values above 540 dm result in a mixture of snow-rain-freezing/frozen precipitation.  A better capture of analyzing a site's specific location is inspection of the Skew-T sounding diagrams, to inspect for levels that rise above freezing to determine an often culprit for pesky ice pellets mixing in.  So thicknesses are for generalization, but Skew-T's are more absolute.

The 1000-850 mb thicknesses, the line to watch here is the 1300 meter, and going below that for snow.  This is analyzing only the lower levels.  Here in Richmond, VA for tomorrow on Sunday, it's forecast to be 1283 m at 7 AM rising to 1303 by 7 PM.

So notice these 2 thicknesses and how they RISE by evening.  This helps explain why there looks to be a transition from snow early in the day to a rain-snow mixture by evening hours.

Sure enough, an inspection of the text product output from the Gfs sounding indicates a +1.0° C above-freezing warmer layer rooted between 900 - 925 mb.  This is between 2600 ft and 3350 ft.  My notes on using the Tau technique is in storage.  Bummer.  I'll dig it out next snow event.  No time for it tonight.  Anyways, you can do some tinkering around yourself with the Tau technique. Looks to be ice pellets for such a shallow, narrowly-above freezing layer.  But during the night, that warm layer aloft grows in depth & peaks at 2.8°C at 925 mb by 1 AM Monday.  That's okay, because that's so late, and I don't see such a warm layer intervening during the daytime so snow should continue on as scheduled during daylight hours.  Although, the surface temperatures will be hovering in the lower 30's, flirting above & below the freezing mark. 

As a last exciting feature to close on the Nam's 18Z output generated 14.6" of snowfall and newest 00Z, Sun, 12/9 data rolling in a short while ago shows 14.1".  As I said at the start of this writing, I ignore & disregard this Nam model; but it's there for your entertainment purposes, anyways!  It's quite an extremist.  

 

--  cyclogenesis

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Posted 1 hour ago
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow, moderate to heavy at times will develop late
this morning and continue through the day. The snow may mix with
rain at times, especially closer to I-95, as temperatures rise
above freezing. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches can be
expected. Some light icing is possible tonight, as temperatures
drop below freezing.

* WHERE...Portions of central Virginia.

* WHEN...From 10 AM EST this morning to 4 AM EST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions and
potentially dangerous travel today into tonight. The wet nature
of the snow will also allow it to stick to tree limbs which
could cause some isolated outages.
Recommended actions
A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.
For the latest road conditions in Virginia or Maryland, please
call 5 1 1. For the latest road information in North Carolina, go
to http://DriveNC.gov.

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6 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

If I had to make a call for RIC officially, I'd go with 3.3". The daily snowfall record is 1.8" set in 1988.  

Seems like a good OFFICIAL call for Ric ( Esp how they  normally report.)..

It looks like the Ric area should be getting close to be reporting the first flurries..

Anybody getting anything yet? Nothing of course out here in Glen Allen near Staples/295.

Lok like the rain/snow line is streaching from just south of Charlotte NC to East Just outside Norfolk VA ..

Def the sooner this starts the better..The Dry air is gonna be hard to break ...But once it does shouldn't take long to come down steady...

I'd say start time prob around 8am in my area  but we will see..

 

LET'S HERE some reports..  Would like to here from people near the snow/rain line also..

 

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