RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Not bad. Little conservative on the snow accumulation for Richmond but makes sense since there is not model agreement on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The UK out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 00z follows the 18z euro. It’s south but dryer. 3-5 across the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Does anyone have ice maps from different models? And man what is that for Saturday now? Sleet? Freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Ugh, glad I didn't stay up. I know winter weather is a crap shoot around here but darn sick of models honking on 8-12" or significant ice storm days out and then I sound the alarm at work, with caveats, only to have it pull back within 48 hours with what might be another WWA event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Anyone have 6z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 27 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Anyone have 6z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Westendsnowguy said: Thanks. Waiting to see what 12z suite says but starting to look like a 3-5 snow event which honestly isn’t all that bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Thanks. Waiting to see what 12z suite says but starting to look like a 3-5 snow event which honestly isn’t all that bad 0-3 imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Gonna be pretty hard to get shut out for this event in the Ric area. Imo . But prob will be another frustrating event, waiting for the changeover starting mid/late afternoon Thursday. Dry air & rates are going to the key again, if we can go from low end 1-3 to the high end 3 to 6 once the changeover... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3K NAM is absolutely weak dry sauce. Maybe an inch if that. Granted the NAM has not been the most accurate for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: 3K NAM is absolutely weak dry sauce. Maybe an inch if that. Granted the NAM has not been the most accurate for our area Seemed like 12k NAM was better? Transparently I’m not sure of the two which is better as far as how it handles winter events at this .24 to 36 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 12K NAM gives us 6”. Geez what a discrepancy amongst the NAM models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Step away from the models... step away from the models. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Seemed like 12k NAM was better? Transparently I’m not sure of the two which is better as far as how it handles winter events at this .24 to 36 hours out. I’m not sure which is better either to be honest. Based on 12z meso data we could get anywhere between 1-5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 12 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: I’m not sure which is better either to be honest. Based on 12z meso data we could get anywhere between 1-5 Wakefield pretty aggressive with 4-6” for the city/N n W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Wakefield pretty aggressive with 4-6” for the city/N n W. This is possible depending on which model you use. The 12z NAM nest was all over the place 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Gfs still likes an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 I have a hard time believing RIC will transition from RA to ZR, IP, and then +SN. That never happens and last time we thought it would was February 2003. That storm, like I said the other day, did transition from RA to IP, but the SN, at least enough for apprectiable accumulations, stayed well north of the metro area toward EZF. No scenario is ever really the same, just going on climo and what tends to happen around here. Obviously, I'm hoping for mostly snow and if everyone can get a widespread 4-8", that'd be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I have a hard time believing RIC will transition from RA to ZR, IP, and then +SN. That never happens and last time we thought it would was February 2003. That storm, like I said the other day, did transition from RA to IP, but the SN, at least enough for apprectiable accumulations, stayed well north of the metro area toward EZF. No scenario is ever really the same, just going on climo and what tends to happen around here. Obviously, I'm hoping for mostly snow and if everyone can get a widespread 4-8", that'd be cool. I’m honestly not sure what’s going to happen. Around 30 hours until start time and there is no model agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, RVASnowLover said: I’m honestly not sure what’s going to happen. Around 30 hours until start time and there is no model agreement I can't think of a snow storm in this area that ever followed what was forecasted. 80% bust to 20% boom ratio. Richmond is always a mixed bag. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, RichmondTarHeel said: I can't think of a snow storm in this area that ever followed what was forecasted. 80% bust to 20% boom ratio. Richmond is always a mixed bag. At this point we should have a general idea but we don’t have that right now. It is rare here to go from rain to ice to snow but it’s possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 We’re also in a very active pattern right now with something Thursday night, Saturday and maybe Tuesday so maybe the models are just struggling to handle it all. I don’t know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Going to bust a little high on the temps today. Up to 44 here but clouds are settling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 NBC12 pulled back, they were 3-6" for metro and 5-10" North and West. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, JB Fins said: NBC12 pulled back, they were 3-6" for metro and 5-10" North and West. Seems reasonable since models have lessened amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 ooof - 12Z suites all look bad - crazy how much have changes in less than 24 hours across the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Euro is bad too. Even more south and dry About an inch in the city more down Petersburg because they get better rates. 1-4 with maybe some ice seems like a good forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Huggin the hell out of the RGEM - still gives us 5-8" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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