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Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion


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1 minute ago, tramadoc said:

Thought you might like this from the latest AFD from Wakefield.

Confident in period of moderate snow inland, given well-modeled
narrow band of negative EPV dropping over the SW zones in the
Piedmont (I-85 corridor). There could be a very narrow corridor
of 4-6" of snow in this band. However, expect this would be very
localized and hard to pin- down, so there is no need for a
watch or warning at this time. Slightly less confident into SE
VA. To reiterate...we have issued a Winter Weather Advisory
over Hampton Roads for the late morning and afternoon. However,
we are still a bit concerned with sharpening axis of F-Gen/OPRH
depicted by the 12z (and now 18z) high-res NAM. Issue will be
that we will have a very narrow window within which to receive
moderate snows into Tidewater area, before best axis of moisture
slides offshore. Potential is there for warning criteria snows
(and criteria is 3" for SE VA). However, after collaboration
with neighboring offices and WPC, will hold off with warning for
now. Narrow window of potential snowfall is the primary issue.
Should later model runs continue to depict this potential, an
upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for all or part of the Hampton
Roads area may be needed.


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I was just about to post the discussion, that's pretty significant wording. The graphics they posted on Twitter note that Tidewater and NE NC could see up to 3"

 

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6 hours ago, Cobalt said:

Snowfall totals keep on getting upped just SE of Richmond, as seen on every meso/operational model as of now.

I hope you folks get shellacked and get a really good event. I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere it that band someone measures 8" of snow.

I'm rooting for you guys! :lol:

def going to be close here in the Richmond area... Im keeping an eye down in the Knoxville TN area... If the precip can keep pushing around Knoxville thats a good sign for this area.... 

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36 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

@SteveVa I think we might get a couple of inches and maybe more if that low creeps closer.


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We're both in a sucky spot between to be honest. The band that slams Piedmont will likely dry up some and weaken by the time it reaches us. The coastal gets going too far east and slides quickly out to sea. You're in a better spot than I am for sure, there is a chance you get some of the coastal precip. I believe the rest of extreme NE NC still is in the game for a WSW criteria snow if the coastal develops just a tad sooner, MHX already pulled the trigger on the WSWs.

Also, don't look at the 12z NAM, 0" for both of us while everyone else scores. Even Hatteras gets almost 6". We can hug the 13z HRRRRRRRRRR, dumps about 3-4" and still going at 2am

 

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1 hour ago, SteveVa said:

We're both in a sucky spot between to be honest. The band that slams Piedmont will likely dry up some and weaken by the time it reaches us. The coastal gets going too far east and slides quickly out to sea. You're in a better spot than I am for sure, there is a chance you get some of the coastal precip. I believe the rest of extreme NE NC still is in the game for a WSW criteria snow if the coastal develops just a tad sooner, MHX already pulled the trigger on the WSWs.

Also, don't look at the 12z NAM, 0" for both of us while everyone else scores. Even Hatteras gets almost 6". We can hug the 13z HRRRRRRRRRR, dumps about 3-4" and still going at 2am

 

Man I was rooting for the coastal but the way the 12Z Nam depicts it is a worst case scenario for ORF/ VB. Its like it steals all the moisture right on our doorstep and slams southern OBX.

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42 minutes ago, VBsurf said:

Man I was rooting for the coastal but the way the 12Z Nam depicts it is a worst case scenario for ORF/ VB. Its like it steals all the moisture right on our doorstep and slams southern OBX.

Yeah, 12z NAM would be the worst case scenario. HRRRRRRR has been hinting in the past few runs that the coastal precip could sneak back into VB and Norfolk. Has about 7" of high ratio snow for Sandbridge lol. I might become more optimistic for our area if the event keeps trending slower...

Currently 34 degrees and overcast. Official forecast calls for some mixing but obs say the whole column is below freezing besides the lowest couple hundred feet. I don't think mixing will be a problem after initial 15-30 mins of precip.

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1 hour ago, snowchill said:

Just hit 4" Powhatan, Snowing steady looks to be several hr's at these rates

wow... im at virginia center commons  and barely over an inch here... Been snowing very lightly for the past 2 hours... Too light to add up on anywhere but the grass and trees/car tops at the moment... cars flying by nicely on 295

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16z HRRRRRR and RAP both show 4"+ for VB. Verbatim they have a 4"+ strip of snow from Ocracoke into Hampton Roads. NWS usually goes with a blend of those two models when forecasting inside 12-18 hours. It has gotta be hard right now for AKQ mets because most everyone here expects 2" at most. 

In other news, temperature is down to 31 degrees on the closest PWS. KORF is at 32 at 1pm. Mixing ain't happening.

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16z HRRRRRR and RAP both show 4"+ for VB. Verbatim they have a 4"+ strip of snow from Ocracoke into Hampton Roads. NWS usually goes with a blend of those two models when forecasting inside 12-18 hours. It has gotta be hard right now for AKQ mets because most everyone here expects 2" at most. 
In other news, temperature is down to 31 degrees on the closest PWS. KORF is at 32 at 1pm. Mixing ain't happening.
Am I in that? LOL
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4 minutes ago, tramadoc said:
13 minutes ago, SteveVa said:
16z HRRRRRR and RAP both show 4"+ for VB. Verbatim they have a 4"+ strip of snow from Ocracoke into Hampton Roads. NWS usually goes with a blend of those two models when forecasting inside 12-18 hours. It has gotta be hard right now for AKQ mets because most everyone here expects 2" at most. 
In other news, temperature is down to 31 degrees on the closest PWS. KORF is at 32 at 1pm. Mixing ain't happening.

Am I in that? LOL

Yes you are. Verbatim 6" per 17z RAP...

12z NAM kinda crushed my hopes, but they're back up after a couple of good runs. I have to stop model watching, it's like a drug lol 

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4 minutes ago, VBsurf said:

Whats the link to the RAP?  I want my fix haha

 

1 minute ago, tramadoc said:

Can you post a link to the RAP? I looked on TT, but can’t find it.

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I use pivotal weather for the RAP, there might be a better site though http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap

Be sure to select Kuchera ratio when checking snowfall amounts, you want that high ratio fix lol

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ICA webcam

Monroe Park webcam

Cabell Library webcam

 

the vcu ram cam looks about the same amount then here where I am (not much) the borderline temps with the salt def making a difference with this light snow...

https://ramcam.vcu.edu/

Down to flurry at the moment here in VA COMMONS (1:49pm)

 

radar really showing the drop off in rates/coverage area  the past hour def seems to be transferring  out to the coast...

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx

 

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