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north pgh

Pittsburgh PA ❄️ Winter 2017-2018

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40 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

 

Most model guidance have been taking us into phase 4 in the next several days, which would coincide with the coming break in the colder, snowier weather. Phase 4, 5, and 6 are very warm phases for the eastern US. What I'm seeing though in the model forecasts especially with the Euro ones is a lessening of the magnitude as it goes through 4 heading to 5. Some of the particular model forecasts have it near or into the circle before it gets to 5... which would indicate the MJO might not have much influence on our sensible weather. 

I really haven't seen anything yet on longer term guidance that would convince me of any sort of established eastern ridge or sustained warmth that would completely take us out of the game for awhile. What I do see is a less favorable storm pattern. The PNA taking a dive indicates the west is about to get a stormy pattern..not necessarily a bad thing in itself but no solid established -NAO or eastern Canada blocking over the top of us means we'll be vulnerable to those storms cutting west of us instead of under us. The next system progged for early next week on GFS/Euro will very likely be a cutter as advertised, but I'd watch for one behind it. GFS hasn't shown much but the Euro has had some kind of system the last few runs in that day 8+ timeframe where the low might be able to sneak near or under PA. So while we're heading for a more unfavorable second half of the month in terms of storm track and also for sustained cold I do think there will be opportunities. 

Well I love that you’re posting here-thanks a ton for your expertise and feedback!  We miss Mets posting in our forum so thanks MAG! 

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Over perform much? I ended up with 5.25! That's only like a half inch less than the Friday storm lol. Measured a total of 7.5 - 8 total on the ground. To bad we aren't headed into a two week icebox to keep it around for awhile. My road was completely snow covered, so took the dog out and had him pulling my daughter on the sled, snow flakes were so big they were projecting shadows onto the ground. It took me 2 hours to get home though.. usually only 50 minutes. I kept checking radar on my phone hoping I'd make home before the snow quit, but probably got some of the best rates while we outside.

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2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

 

Most model guidance have been taking us into phase 4 in the next several days, which would coincide with the coming break in the colder, snowier weather. Phase 4, 5, and 6 are very warm phases for the eastern US. What I'm seeing though in the model forecasts especially with the Euro ones is a lessening of the magnitude as it goes through 4 heading to 5. Some of the particular model forecasts have it near or into the circle before it gets to 5... which would indicate the MJO might not have much influence on our sensible weather. 

I really haven't seen anything yet on longer term guidance that would convince me of any sort of established eastern ridge or sustained warmth that would completely take us out of the game for awhile. What I do see is a less favorable storm pattern. The PNA taking a dive indicates the west is about to get a stormy pattern..not necessarily a bad thing in itself but no solid established -NAO or eastern Canada blocking over the top of us means we'll be vulnerable to those storms cutting west of us instead of under us. The next system progged for early next week on GFS/Euro will very likely be a cutter as advertised, but I'd watch for one behind it. GFS hasn't shown much but the Euro has had some kind of system the last few runs in that day 8+ timeframe where the low might be able to sneak near or under PA. So while we're heading for a more unfavorable second half of the month in terms of storm track and also for sustained cold I do think there will be opportunities. 

That was my thinking too, I think we will see storms cut with nothing to force them under us and the big -PNA, but we will get colder after they pass and drag a cold front through. That period when the eastern ridge is knocked down a bit might offer a shot if we can time something right. I can see that scenario playing itself out 2-3 times before the more favorable pattern arrives.

I also noticed the GEFS MJO forecast showed it strengthening into phase 5, but Euro had it weakening towards COD, and also looked to get it through the phases a little faster. Not sure which model suite has been handling the MJO better this season though.The background state of the East based NINA seems to have been good, so if we can swing into phases 8-1-2-3 by early Feb we could be looking at a good odds at some snow through early March.

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1 hour ago, TeaysValleyWV said:

The day of never ending snow just ended here lol.   5.0" event total.

Definitely easier to measure today, than Saturday morning. lol

52 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

So far, so good.

Now a 12+ storm would send this winter over the top.



.

This is mostly weenie hyperbole, but some winters want to be cold and snowy. I think this is one of them.

Hopefully that two year heatwave we were in, has been broken.

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Best snow growth of the day thus far down here over the last hour or so.  It has waned a bit as I post now; I believe the end is nigh.  For ~16 hours of snow, however, we've only managed a shade over 2" total.  That puts me at 10" on the season (I'm guessing another 1/4" or so to add, but that's negligible).

I'd assume for the Morgantown area that's right around the seasonal average at this time of year, maybe a bit less, based on a total of 27" per annum.

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10 minutes ago, jwilson said:

Best snow growth of the day thus far down here over the last hour or so.  It has waned a bit as I post now; I believe the end is nigh.  For ~16 hours of snow, however, we've only managed a shade over 2" total.  That puts me at 10" on the season (I'm guessing another 1/4" or so to add, but that's negligible).

I'd assume for the Morgantown area that's right around the seasonal average at this time of year, maybe a bit less, based on a total of 27" per annum.

My son said roads were bad in Morgantown this afternoon and evening.  His shuttle from classes took an hour to get out of the downtown area.  He also sent a video of cars sliding down a street smashing into cars by University Ave.

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2 hours ago, TeaysValleyWV said:

My son said roads were bad in Morgantown this afternoon and evening.  His shuttle from classes took an hour to get out of the downtown area.  He also sent a video of cars sliding down a street smashing into cars by University Ave.

I can confirm nightmarish conditions around the city, poorly treated roads indeed.

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Anybody see an official total? I'd say we got around 4" here but hard to say with the duration and compacting. Very wintry look and feel outside. Really can't remember how long it's been since we've had such sustained cold and frequent snowfall. Only a foot or so away from our yearly average with a good chunk to go! :snowing:

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Torch coming in a few days,  Monday looks like it could be an severe weather day.

Number 1. Analog looking at the data is December 1st, 2006.  The day the first ever on record tornadoes occurred in Pennsylvania

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3 hours ago, JPOracle said:

Torch coming in a few days,  Monday looks like it could be an severe weather day.

Number 1. Analog looking at the data is December 1st, 2006.  The day the first ever on record tornadoes occurred in Pennsylvania

You are probably right... Lots of instability in place for it. :rolleyes:

Screen Shot 2018-01-17 at 4.24.18 PM.png

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3 hours ago, JPOracle said:

Torch coming in a few days,  Monday looks like it could be an severe weather day.

Number 1. Analog looking at the data is December 1st, 2006.  The day the first ever on record tornadoes occurred in Pennsylvania

I’ll play along....

Google “1998 Mt Washington tornado Pittsburgh”

(and no, that wasn’t the first either)

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20 minutes ago, SteelCity08 said:

Always wondered how people get enjoyment out of trolling. Especially an obscure sub forum for weather lol. 

Trolling, not so much, looking at dynamics and that's what shows up

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2 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

You are probably right... Lots of instability in place for it. :rolleyes:

Screen Shot 2018-01-17 at 4.24.18 PM.png

need minimal surface cape, and moderate mid level and upper level cape.  You need to learn it doesn't take much in cold months.

If you want to look up one most powerful local tornadoes type in Vandergrift/Natrona Heights Tornado 1980.  It was same day as the Grand Island "Night of the Twisters" outbreak

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9 minutes ago, JPOracle said:

need minimal surface cape, and moderate mid level and upper level cape.  You need to learn it doesn't take much

Can you show a map for monday with moderate mid and upper level cape? If I am missing it, I would like to see it so I can be ready for monday. Love tracking severe weather

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