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Pittsburgh PA ❄️ Winter 2017-2018


north pgh

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9 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Anyone watching the HRRRs that are coming out? Western AGC never fully switches to rain. This is super close. 

Reading chatter on twitter again about how the modeling is turning north too early. Something to keep an eye on. 

 North too early does what to totals in wester AGC?  

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4 minutes ago, stjbeautifulday said:

 North too early does what to totals in wester AGC?  

I should explain it more like this. This system will transfer eventually to the east coast. Systems like this always do. The chatter is coming from the NAM and the GFS (most modeling for that purpose) tends to make this happen later than what usually ends up happening. So  there is doubt in the twitterverse about the modeling right now and suspect that the rain/snow line will be slightly farther south and east... We can only hope. 

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5 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

I should explain it more like this. This system will transfer eventually to the east coast. Systems like this always do. The chatter is coming from the NAM and the GFS (most modeling for that purpose) tends to make this happen later than what usually ends up happening. So  there is doubt in the twitterverse about the modeling right now and suspect that the rain/snow line will be slightly farther south and east... We can only hope. 

Are meteorologists saying this? I always look at crankywxguy on twitter and he seems to believe it doesn't come as far north and goes more southeast. That cut off is brutal right now on models

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Just now, southpark said:

Are meteorologists saying this? I always look at crankywxguy on twitter and he seems to believe it doesn't come as far north and goes more southeast. That cut off is brutal right now on models

Cranky is the main one i am referring to. Like i said in a post last night, his analysis is usually pretty good.

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2 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said:

I'm right on the border of Allegheny and Washington Counties. I can practically throw a rock into Washington County from where I live. Makes me wonder how much ice I'm going to get.

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk
 

I am on the border as well and was wondering the same thing.

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5 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

4 in KAGC. 5 in KPIT

 

17 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Interested to see the GFS snow output. It’s bringing some pretty heavy QPF across the M/D line but have to see where that intersects with profiles that support mostly snow. 

Sorry wrong run. /still 4 in KAGC but 8 in KPIT

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Latest from PBZ:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Advisories have been upgraded to warnings for portions of
southeastern Ohio, the WV panhandle, and Washington county PA
with the latest update as recent model runs show above average 
consensus and continuity in regards to QPF, warm air advection,
and more significant ice accumulation. Best matching analogs
also point towards potential for significant icing as well.  

Still assessing snow amounts as new 00Z data comes in...but
additional upgrades are definitely a possibility for north of 
a line from Zanesville to Dubois with snow totals possibly
reaching warning criteria.

Tricky forecast as the difference between observing either 6-8"
of snow (possibly more) or over a quarter inch of ice will
likely be less than the distance across any county.
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