north pgh Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Another squall coming through. Winds are a howling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Euro cuts the snow in half from 12z. Stupid warm tongue just refuses to give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 5 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Euro cuts the snow in half from 12z. Stupid warm tongue just refuses to give up. Not entirely sure how accurate this is, but per weather.us total qpf that falls as snow is in the .4-.6 range per the Euro north of I-70 which would yield 4-6 inches at 10:1. GFS and CMC are better by a couple of inches but I think the high upside of this type of setup is probably in the 6-8 range anyways. Hopefully the Euro ticks back SE a bit over the next few runs and I'd be happy if GFS just held as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 let's get this one i would take 6+ gladly and then call it a year LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 NAM looks a lot better. The warm air barely penetrates AGH county. The trend is our friend but let's see if it continues. Remember too that the last storm was horribly modeled. The changeover time was modeled pretty bad and it eneded up changing earlier than most models had after the models shifted to a later changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Barring any excess virga or sucker holes, 3-5” is a safe bet right now. Seems like all the models are showing a decent front end thump, which benefits us who will deal with p-type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 GFS continues to look good... Starting to get a little more optimistic now. Its a razors thin edge though. Pretty small swath of snow max in western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Gfs looks pretty good. It's all gonna depend on that changeover. How much can we pile up before/if it changes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 22 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: GFS continues to look good... Starting to get a little more optimistic now. Its a razors thin edge though. Pretty small swath of snow max in western PA. CMC has a similar heavier swath going through Western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 12z models so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 NWS taking a conservative approach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stjbeautifulday Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 What makes an advisory happen? (Learning through you all!). I mean-who doesn’t love a snow day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, stjbeautifulday said: What makes an advisory happen? (Learning through you all!). I mean-who doesn’t love a snow day! An advisory is based upon a certain amount of snow/frozen precip falling within a certain amount of time. A warning is the same but more precip. That's the basic answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, stjbeautifulday said: What makes an advisory happen? (Learning through you all!). I mean-who doesn’t love a snow day! Here is a link with the criteria for the different advisory / warnings: http://www.weather.gov/pbz/winterterms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 43 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: CMC has a similar heavier swath going through Western PA. This is last nights CMC. Here is today's but very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just now, north pgh said: This is last nights CMC. Here is today's but very similar. Thanks I didn't even notice. I heard the CMC was slow to load so I made the mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stjbeautifulday Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Where do to find the maps you look at? I’ve been following along here for a couple years. This is all so interesting to me. I feverishly look every couple hours to see what you guys are saying when there is a storm in view. Thanks!!! Keep it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Should probably chop an inch off whatever maps you see at 10:1 - Ratios more than likely below that for this but great to see everything still there. Still hoping for a little colder solution, don't want any slop messing up my snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 22 minutes ago, stjbeautifulday said: Where do to find the maps you look at? I’ve been following along here for a couple years. This is all so interesting to me. I feverishly look every couple hours to see what you guys are saying when there is a storm in view. Thanks!!! Keep it up! http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ Those are two good ones to start with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 I’d imagine we get a watch this afternoon. With the combination of KPIT already expecting 2-4 inches plus ice on top of it that should be sufficient for a watch. They can always adjust later if need be to an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL... Complicated forecast for the short term with various scenarios possible equating to numerous ptype combos. With low pressure coming from the southern plains and tracking up the eastern side of the Appalachians, this sets the stage for wintry mess Wednesday. Overall differences between the 12Z NCEP chain have lessen with operational run of GFS coming in warmer than the previous one, which corresponds well to the NAM runs of late. Dry air at the surface with large T/Td spreads Tuesday night will make it tough for snow to make it to the ground initially until column saturates with more robust isentropic upglide and surge in specific humidities between 300-320K. Overall sided with a blend of the NAM and GFS when constructing ptype grids. This correlates to a period of snow area wide during the early morning hours before a warm layer aloft surges north on the windward side of the mountains. Warm layer aloft temps during the midday hours Wednesday climb above 3C while surface temperatures make a run into the lower 40s over northern West Virginia and parts of southwestern Pennsylvania. The orientation of the warm air will make it a tough forecast call for Pittsburgh metro where a short time window of sleet and perhaps freezing rain is in store during the day. Confidence is high in all snow north of I-76 where amounts will approach the top end of advisory levels /5"/. For the northern West Virginia panhandle and eastern Ohio, during the warm air surge between 12z-16z Wednesday a 1-3 hour time window of sleet and perhaps freezing rain is possible, but most of the event, especially out towards Zanesville will remain all snow at least at this juncture unless the low track shifts westward. Winter weather advisories will be needed area wide tomorrow as the forecast is fine tuned. Ice amounts will be highest over northern West Virginia /Morgantown - Fairmont/, but there amounts will be under two tenths. Will continue to message this system on social media, hazardous weather outlook, and enhanced hazardous weather outlook to alert public. If you have travel plans Wednesday, please monitor the forecast as you should expect winter conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stjbeautifulday Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 I just got the notification for heavy snow coming. Woohoo!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Euro is awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Mailman said: I hate this hobby. I seriously do. Hard to even get 4 inches with a forecast like that. I hope this trends cooler but I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 hour ago, stjbeautifulday said: Where do to find the maps you look at? I’ve been following along here for a couple years. This is all so interesting to me. I feverishly look every couple hours to see what you guys are saying when there is a storm in view. Thanks!!! Keep it up! I'm with you usually check every few hours to see what's going on especially in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: Euro is awful What? Define awful? literally a 25 mile shift puts all of AGC in a 6-10 type event based off that. Probagly more like 4-8 with ratios, but the euro is not “awful” by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: Euro is awful 5 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: What? Define awful? literally a 25 mile shift puts all of AGC in a 6-10 type event based off that. Probagly more like 4-8 with ratios, but the euro is not “awful” by any means. Sure, not a great run. Still time. 25 miles is nothing. Keep on tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 hour ago, KPITSnow said: What? Define awful? literally a 25 mile shift puts all of AGC in a 6-10 type event based off that. Probagly more like 4-8 with ratios, but the euro is not “awful” by any means. I mean the trend is not our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Seems like the NAM jacked totals up a little bit for you guys in Allegheny County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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