MikeB_01 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 15 minutes ago, Mailman said: GFS making things interesting for the weekend. Even though the precip looks better on GFS, the vort still looks pretty weak. Hardly organized at all. Euro has been south and even weaker for the storm. Very curious to see if it makes a move to the NW like the GFS has done over the last few runs. If the GFS shows the continued trend and the Euro starts to come along, it will definitely be something to watch over the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Looks like we are entering a busy period starting this weekend with multiple chances for snow. So far though the trend is progressive so I think in order for us to get a good storm it's gonna have to be overrunning and not some amped up low that tracks perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 7 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Looks like we are entering a busy period starting this weekend with multiple chances for snow. So far though the trend is progressive so I think in order for us to get a good storm it's gonna have to be overrunning and not some amped up low that tracks perfectly. Yeah, nothing major, but enough activity to possibly reach climo by mid month. Then we have another month or so to score a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 We could honestly score a big storm this next coming week. Its look like multiple snow chances this next week. Sunday doesn't look amped but still looks like a potential 6 inch storm if things come together right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 hours ago, JPOracle said: We could honestly score a big storm this next coming week. Its look like multiple snow chances this next week. Sunday doesn't look amped but still looks like a potential 6 inch storm if things come together right Sunday and Tuesday. Let's hope we can score at least one big snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 13 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said: Yeah, nothing major, but enough activity to possibly reach climo by mid month. Then we have another month or so to score a big storm. Agree, I don't see a single threat that looks bigger or better than another. Just several opportunities rolling through, but any one could end up being a more moderate type storm for us with good tracking \ timing. I think a lot of these shots will be flawed, ie, rain to snow or snow to rain scenarios. One thing I don't like is the GFS has been slowly moving the H5 features around which is leading to the trough axis almost to far to the west. I'm thinking this is in response to the MJO forecast. Seems like it is going to spend a lot of time in phase 7, which favors warmth in the east. Wouldn't be to concerned but some models starting to show it not making it into phase 8, and convection re-firing further west, so don't be surprised if you start to see a loop in phase 7 on the RMM plots. Roundy plots look a bit better with an eventual move to 8-1 albeit with it weakening along the way. It will be interesting to see how this all evolves over the next few days. Oh, and just to throw another variable in GFS keeps advertising a split in the PV, pretty far out in time but not a bad thing if it were to happen. Overall through the first 7-10 days of Feb the storm track should favor more inland, just gotta hope it's not to far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Agree, I don't see a single threat that looks bigger or better than another. Just several opportunities rolling through, but any one could end up being a more moderate type storm for us with good tracking \ timing. I think a lot of these shots will be flawed, ie, rain to snow or snow to rain scenarios. One thing I don't like is the GFS has been slowly moving the H5 features around which is leading to the trough axis almost to far to the west. I'm thinking this is in response to the MJO forecast. Seems like it is going to spend a lot of time in phase 7, which favors warmth in the east. Wouldn't be to concerned but some models starting to show it not making it into phase 8, and convection re-firing further west, so don't be surprised if you start to see a loop in phase 7 on the RMM plots. Roundy plots look a bit better with an eventual move to 8-1 albeit with it weakening along the way. It will be interesting to see how this all evolves over the next few days. Oh, and just to throw another variable in GFS keeps advertising a split in the PV, pretty far out in time but not a bad thing if it were to happen. Overall through the first 7-10 days of Feb the storm track should favor more inland, just gotta hope it's not to far inland. Could be a bit frustrating at times with the rain/snow line, as our climo comes in to play more. But at least it's not a cold suppressed pattern. That sunday morning timeframe still looks interesting, although the NWS hasn't given it more than a general sidenote, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 It seems like the next 2 storms are going to have us dealing with the warm tongue. It doesn’t seem we have had to worry about that as much in the last couple of years. Looks like Sunday and Tuesday could be the slop storms that seemed common several years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 22 minutes ago, dj3 said: It seems like the next 2 storms are going to have us dealing with the warm tongue. It doesn’t seem we have had to worry about that as much in the last couple of years. Looks like Sunday and Tuesday could be the slop storms that seemed common several years ago. Still days away. I'm not believing any solution until 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 35 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Still days away. I'm not believing any solution until 24 hours out. Same, i look at the trends and not what its showing at this point. 2 days ago the NAM was having us under wet snow today, now its going to be atleast 50 degrees on the HRRR today. But i like the Sunday storm more then the mid week storm at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 Looking good for an inch or less overnight. Then a storm to track Sunday and Tuesday. Borderline mixing issues but trending in our favors. I'm guessing a minimum of 2-4 for each storm and a possibility of more. One storm at a time. It would be nice to have snow falling all day Sunday as I have no traveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 7 hours ago, north pgh said: Looking good for an inch or less overnight. Then a storm to track Sunday and Tuesday. Borderline mixing issues but trending in our favors. I'm guessing a minimum of 2-4 for each storm and a possibility of more. One storm at a time. It would be nice to have snow falling all day Sunday as I have no traveling. One more thing in our favor, is the lack of a strong SE surface wind. Although the S and SW wind on Sunday isn't ideal, with 850's likely staying below freezing, we should hold on to the snow a bit longer. I guess we'll see about Tuesday later on this weekend. That SE wind has killed our snow amounts too many times over the years. smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 36 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: One more thing in our favor, is the lack of a strong SE surface wind. Although the S and SW wind on Sunday isn't ideal, with 850's likely staying below freezing, we should hold on to the snow a bit longer. I guess we'll see about Tuesday later on this weekend. That SE wind has killed our snow amounts too many times over the years. smh The warm tongue is a mystery and something that forever plagues us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 56 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: One more thing in our favor, is the lack of a strong SE surface wind. Although the S and SW wind on Sunday isn't ideal, with 850's likely staying below freezing, we should hold on to the snow a bit longer. I guess we'll see about Tuesday later on this weekend. That SE wind has killed our snow amounts too many times over the years. smh Yeah the down sloping off the ridges can really wreak havoc. Good point it won't be an issue this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 2, 2018 Author Share Posted February 2, 2018 Getting some decent snow now and it is sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Changed over to snow here about 15 minutes ago, no accumulation yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Solid coating to half inch here. Roads will get nasty for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Little dusting on the grass in the south hills. Roads just wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 It changed to snow here around 5:15 but only have about 1”.....if that even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 We’re holding our own so far, with some of the more traditional snow towns. https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/958830592015073282/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Woke up to about 4 new inches....see what Sunday and Tuesday bring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 2, 2018 Author Share Posted February 2, 2018 We trended a little colder on the 12Z GFS for Sunday. Looks like a general 1-3 event South to North. Next Tuesday scares me because we are in the bulls eye and you know what it means to be in the bulls eye this far out. Would be nice if it holds. Tuesday could be our biggest storm in a while. BTW that lake effect streamer is setting up and I am getting some decent snow here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Flizzard in Cranberry after an inch from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Usually the GEM jumps around the most, but the last 3 days it's held steady for the Tue-Wed storm. Still a bit too far out to have much confidence, but interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Euro is not good for mid-week (unless you live in Erie). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 13 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said: We’re holding our own so far, with some of the more traditional snow towns. https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/958830592015073282/photo/1 The race to 50" is on. Has always been my benchmark for a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 I've just learned to laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Heavy snow off and on, i walked 2 miles through one of the bands and it was like a classic blizzard, saw some cold air funnels over the Allegheny River today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Just to throw this off topic for one second and then back to tracking and snow talk. Just out of curiosity, what do you guys have for weather stations? I'm looking for something that won't break the bank, but still gives accurate info. I've really struggled to find one that does that. I recently got an Ambient WS-11. Has an outdoor temp and humidity sensor. I live in an apartment, so I don't need the rain or wind gauges. Anyway, this particular model you can calibrate everything if something is off. Problem I'm having is, no matter how much I calibrate it, it still ends up reading too low or too high for the outdoor temps and by quite a bit. Anyway, just curious what you local guys use here. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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