Longdong Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, north pgh said: Nice batch about to move in. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a fresh inch with this batch and 1-2 during the day tomorrow. It will probably be the last snow for a week at least. U are a good optimist like me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Nice batch about to move in. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a fresh inch with this batch and 1-2 during the day tomorrow. It will probably be the last snow for a week at least.I’m pumped. The higher we can stack the snow, the better. I do think some people on here are having a slight weekend snowstorm hangover. Anyone take a look at the MJO? Curious as to the phases we are heading into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 50 minutes ago, north pgh said: Nice batch about to move in. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a fresh inch with this batch and 1-2 during the day tomorrow. It will probably be the last snow for a week at least. A week at least is the key. EPS shows no sign of knocking that ridge down through the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Got 3 inches or so from the Evening Burst of Snow, and another 2.5 inches or 3 inches from the Overnight Snow. Clipper overperformed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Feel like someone in Beaver or Butler will see 5 or 6" between today and tmrw. Been getting hit pretty good most of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2.8" as of 6AM, 0.12" melted liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Measured 2.5, so picked up 3/4 inch since I went to bed last night. That was at 5am, and it was coming down pretty good at the time with very nice dendrites. Just looking at radar I think I should hit another inch easy, might be able to push 4 inches since the snow looks to linger longer than originally thought. Latest HRRR showing another 1-2 inches, definitely has the look of an over performer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 hours ago, north pgh said: Nice batch about to move in. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a fresh inch with this batch and 1-2 during the day tomorrow. It will probably be the last snow for a week at least. Agree on this, temperatures look to go above average this weekend and we will probably average at or above for the next 7-10 days. If your like me and enjoy the snow pack better enjoy it over the next 2-3 days before it starts melting. I made a huge pile from all the shoveling and turned it into a huge snow ramp for my daughter. We were outside for 3 hours yesterday perfecting it and riding down it. Good times. I love when we get snow on top of snow like today. I enjoy watching it fall too, so even a steady light to moderate snow for a long duration works for me, just the general snow globe winter wonderland look puts me in a good mood. With today's event looking to over perform just a bit, we are looking at possibly 2 light to moderate events in a 4 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Shoveling this fluff was pretty easy. This is the kind of snow I enjoy.☃️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: I’m pumped. The higher we can stack the snow, the better. I do think some people on here are having a slight weekend snowstorm hangover.Anyone take a look at the MJO? Curious as to the phases we are heading into . Going of the RMMI plots looks like we are entering phase 4. Phases 4-5-6 in particular are warm phases. We probably start to enter more favorable phases by 1st week of Feb. Also seeing some talk of more wave hits to the PV which could line up well with the favorable MJO phases in Feb. I don't think we enter a complete shutout period though prior to Feb, will probably favor rain events, but the look is pretty flat \ zonal, so a well timed system could bring us a nice snow fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Measured 2.5, so picked up 3/4 inch since I went to bed last night. That was at 5am, and it was coming down pretty good at the time with very nice dendrites. Just looking at radar I think I should hit another inch easy, might be able to push 4 inches since the snow looks to linger longer than originally thought. Latest HRRR showing another 1-2 inches, definitely has the look of an over performer. Super impressed with the staying power of this front. Feel like the trough is digging further south on the western size of the LP causing the energy to run more north to south rather than west to east. Maybe about 2 in here in the south hills today. Hoping for another in today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 0.5" so far overnight and this morning. 3-4" is probably optimistic, but I won't say it is impossible; we will, however, need those heavier bands to the south actually move in and not shred apart. I think the next two weeks are our "warm period" of this winter, relaxation of the overall pattern, before we get back into the PAC-dominated regime in February. Warm shots thus far have been very transient, but it appears this one coming up has a bit more staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 AO going negative and PNA going positive may mute the thaw somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 38 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: AO going negative and PNA going positive may mute the thaw somewhat. Interesting that the ensembles there show the AO going Negative. There are definite positive heights on the 500 GPH anomaly maps. I love it when the models contradict themselves lol The PNA on the GEFS looks to take a hard crash negative though. That would support the warm up. The other index i like to look at and I feel has had a lot of influence so far this year is the EPO. That will be neutral to positive over the next 14 days. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 hours ago, Rd9108 said: AO going negative and PNA going positive may mute the thaw somewhat. After the warm up Saturday thru Monday, it looks like it will cool down to average to slightly below average Tuesday through Friday of next week. Steady light snow has continued all morning, with occasional ramp ups with bigger flakes....another 1.0" since 6AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Got like 2" down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 I got 3.5 inches total since yesterday and I am getting steady light snow now. I told everyone last night that it would snow all day today and I see that NWS Pittsburgh has agreed with me and changed their forecast accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Living in a snow globe today... Love this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 hours ago, Rd9108 said: AO going negative and PNA going positive may mute the thaw somewhat. I don't really expect a full-blown torch like we may experience some winters, talking highs into the 60s (or even more). But the break-down of the overall EPO-driven pacific pattern means our cold well disappears, at least for a while. I think we'll see temps fluctuate a bit - in fact, as you say, the warmth is somewhat muted - but I do believe the temps will go above normal, back to "seasonal" (not that cold), slightly above normal, and then eventually the EPO/PNA reload in February, hopefully to go along with a -AO/-NAO. If we're talking big storms, especially in a Nina climate, we're going to need those latter two indices to get favorable for once. It's still quite possible to get those bigger events in the middle of February through the middle of March, even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Snow-a-thon 2018. Maybe the warm up can get some ice cover off the lakes so we don't shut off the les for the second half. 25th-31st might be our next shot at something if we can get some luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stjbeautifulday Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Windchill advisory for tonight??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, stjbeautifulday said: Windchill advisory for tonight??? Close... Pretty sure it needs to be -10 for the official call. Right now NWS has the lowest at -9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 These don't look like a long term torch to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 I am getting my heaviest snow of the day right now. Over 4 inches so far for the night and day. Not bad. Fluffy snow everywhere. A true winter wonderland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, north pgh said: I am getting my heaviest snow of the day right now. Over 4 inches so far for the night and day. Not bad. Fluffy snow everywhere. A true winter wonderland! I'll be very curious to measure when I get home. Like I said this morning, it is impressive how this front has all but stalled on us. Nice little surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 31 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: These don't look like a long term torch to me. The only one that has an sign of a torch is the EPO. The models have done so poorly long term recently, I would not be surprised if our thaw was only a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stjbeautifulday Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 42 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Close... Pretty sure it needs to be -10 for the official call. Right now NWS has the lowest at -9. Ah! I was trying to find that info. (I read here all the time, but really have no idea how to figure this all out like you guys do!). Thanks for that info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Lets just say a lot of people picked up atleast 6 inches in the past 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 24 minutes ago, JPOracle said: Lets just say a lot of people picked up atleast 6 inches in the past 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 16 hours ago, MikeB_01 said: I’m pumped. The higher we can stack the snow, the better. I do think some people on here are having a slight weekend snowstorm hangover. Anyone take a look at the MJO? Curious as to the phases we are heading into . 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: These don't look like a long term torch to me. Most model guidance have been taking us into phase 4 in the next several days, which would coincide with the coming break in the colder, snowier weather. Phase 4, 5, and 6 are very warm phases for the eastern US. What I'm seeing though in the model forecasts especially with the Euro ones is a lessening of the magnitude as it goes through 4 heading to 5. Some of the particular model forecasts have it near or into the circle before it gets to 5... which would indicate the MJO might not have much influence on our sensible weather. I really haven't seen anything yet on longer term guidance that would convince me of any sort of established eastern ridge or sustained warmth that would completely take us out of the game for awhile. What I do see is a less favorable storm pattern. The PNA taking a dive indicates the west is about to get a stormy pattern..not necessarily a bad thing in itself but no solid established -NAO or eastern Canada blocking over the top of us means we'll be vulnerable to those storms cutting west of us instead of under us. The next system progged for early next week on GFS/Euro will very likely be a cutter as advertised, but I'd watch for one behind it. GFS hasn't shown much but the Euro has had some kind of system the last few runs in that day 8+ timeframe where the low might be able to sneak near or under PA. So while we're heading for a more unfavorable second half of the month in terms of storm track and also for sustained cold I do think there will be opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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