dj3 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Just curious.. Does anyone know the date of the last storm that was over a foot at KPIT? I would think feb 5-6 2010. But I lived in Columbus from 2010-2014 and can’t recall my sisters ever telling me we got over a foot in one storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Feb 6, 2010 - a well earned 21” The storm the next week produced a foot in some places, but I think it was like 9” officially. Other recent storms where parts of the metro area pushed a foot would have been Feb ‘11, March ‘12, and of course January ‘16. But all under a foot officially. With 15”+ as close as 35 miles from the city, clearly Jan 16 is that’s the one that got away. This has to flip soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 FWIW 12z Euro looks SE. It's gonna be a fun few days. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Well.. the Euro is east. So I guess that's an improvement. 850s don't look supportive, though, at 96h. All the good action is back in Indiana and northwest Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 looks like a huge ice maker, with potential for massive flooding in the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: FWIW 12z Euro looks SE. It's gonna be a fun few days. Lol Yeah hard to tell on 24 hour maps how exactly it gets there, but its an improvement for sure. (Does weather.us have MSLP?) We still need a little SE movement, or actually if it just tracks a little further east before making the NNE turn that would be ideal, but stops the bleeding and keeps us in the game, hopefully EPS are east too. By comparison here is the GEFS mean, pretty close to the Euro OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I'm working on the maps, but it runs much closer to the spine of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 Here are some observations that I have made over the last week but have bee to lazy to post. 1. I really enjoyed the storm yesterday. Although brief and only about 2.5 inches, it was daytime. I was out in it. Snow covered roads. Comfortable temperatures. Good packing snow. I was able to take the dog for a walk last night and today because the ground is not as cold. The bitter cold was getting to be too long and dry. I tend to like the old time heavy wet snows that stick to everything. 2. I do not mind the thaws anymore. Being out today and the days feels good. As I get older I need a break from the extreme cold. I used to worry about having snow on the ground to make things colder but in reality it usually doesn't help us in producing storms. Some of our bigger storms start out with barely if any snow on the ground. 3. About the coming storm on Friday night Saturday...Interesting to watch but I have been fearing a big Ohio storm for a while. I remember about 10 years ago Ohio and West getting hit while we watched in a cold rain. It seems lately Philly and East have been getting hit and it is Ohio and West's time. However in some years past Eastern Ohio and Western Pa. can score a big storm together. I seem to remember a storm that resembled this coming weekends potential back in the mid to late 80's. I was out working in the south Hills and all we had was the Weather Channel. In the morning Youngstown and most of eastern Ohio changed to snow and was moving toward us. I remember the temperature slowly dropping thru the 30's all afternoon but it seemed to take forever to change here and when it did we had several hours of sleet by late afternoon and then about 5 or 6 inches of snow where Youngstown and West of Pa got over 10 because of the early changeover. Probably a rare event but I would take a storm like this today. 4. Now time to watch the models and continue to be frustrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Not entirely a surprise. EPS has shifted east from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 39 minutes ago, north pgh said: 2. I do not mind the thaws anymore. Being out today and the days feels good. As I get older I need a break from the extreme cold. I used to worry about having snow on the ground to make things colder but in reality it usually doesn't help us in producing storms. Some of our bigger storms start out with barely if any snow on the ground. I hear you brother. The kids are gone off to college and I struggle to shovel the whole driveway...thank God they were home during break for the December snows. lol These nice warm ups after a cold snap feel good. Now, back to the next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I count like 10 or so hits on the eps with 5 of them being noteworthy. It's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I count like 10 or so hits on the eps with 5 of them being noteworthy. It's a start. Yea that is a pretty big change compared to last nights run. It seems the ones that get us more significant snow are weaker storms in general. We needed to stop the bleeding and that jump from the euro was about as good as we could hope for 1 run at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Sorry it took so long. Here is the biggest difference between 00z and 12z on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 I like to bring this back. One of my favorites. I'll take this track. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KirRsWVv3LQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 From the 4:00: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Some questions remain with the low track and accompanying frontal passage Friday into Saturday. However, the GFS does seem to be trending its solution towards the more consistent ECMWF, which remains the preferred scenario. The Euro model holds back FROPA and the low-level cold air moreso than other solutions, while there is agreement on the significant warm advection in the mid layers. Thus, it is still expected that a period of mixed precipitation will occur at some point, although the timing and amount of course remains iffy. For now, expecting mostly rain to continue through Friday as the surface low rides across the Tennessee Valley. The center may pass over or near MGW Friday night. Have the main mixed precipitation period timed between 00Z and 18Z Saturday in the grids with freezing rain and sleet possibilities. The next arctic air mass then arrives behind the system, with falling temperatures Saturday afternoon and a transition to snow. For now, expecting the greatest impact/accumulation potential will lie to the northwest of the forecast area where better frontogenesis/deformation could set up, but this of course bears monitoring, and the HWO mention will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I like to bring this back. One of my favorites. I'll take this track. My favorite storm of all time. I was in the perfect spot for that one. Southwestern Westmoreland County. I got 27 inches from that storm. Most of it in the daytime too. I'll probably never see a storm like that again where everything is perfect. Heavy snow and all during the day. I was off from school 4 days that week. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 17 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: My favorite storm of all time. I was in the perfect spot for that one. Southwestern Westmoreland County. I got 27 inches from that storm. Most of it in the daytime too. I'll probably never see a storm like that again where everything is perfect. Heavy snow and all during the day. I was off from school 4 days that week. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Mine too. I was working downtown Pittsburgh and living in Plum. Drove in to work at 7:00 am in heavy snow on the parkway east. Watched the heaviest snow I ever saw from the 7th floor of the union trust building. Big flakes and could barely see the building next door. (Someone said that at one time it was 3 to 5 inch an hour rates that morning.) Drove home parkway east at noon. Abandoned my car off route 286 and walked home. Got the car the next day. I believe 2 weeks later we went to -20 below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Looks like the GFS is caving in to the Euro like it usually tends to do. Bad news for us as usual. I think we can stick a fork in yet another one. Ohio is probably going to be the big winner here unless it keeps trending west. Then, they may get left out as well. Either way, we're screwed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 7 hours ago, KPITSnow said: ou’re a Pittsburgh rants creation...go away. Hahaha, if you knew who i was you would be shocked lol, lets just say i could buy the Steelers if i really wanted too. Call me an troll or what ever but i am a scientist and my tornado research is consider well one of the best (NERV) aka National Environmental Research Vector (NGO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 31 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: Looks like the GFS is caving in to the Euro like it usually tends to do. Bad news for us as usual. I think we can stick a fork in yet another one. Ohio is probably going to be the big winner here unless it keeps trending west. Then, they may get left out as well. Either way, we're screwed again. To early to make that call right now, but I am leaning 70/30 in favor of missing this to the west so I don't totally disagree. I think it's likely the European and GFS will meet in the middle, I am still optimistic though seeing the European jump east and the eps and gefs are east. Big variable is its 3 days out and we aren't far from something as it stands now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 hours ago, north pgh said: I like to bring this back. One of my favorites. I'll take this track. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KirRsWVv3LQ Love that map and remember it well. My buddy saw that and argued with me because he thought it was a forecast for additional snow not storm totals. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: To early to make that call right now, but I am leaning 70/30 in favor of missing this to the west so I don't totally disagree. I think it's likely the European and GFS will meet in the middle, I am still optimistic though seeing the European jump east and the eps and gefs are east. Big variable is its 3 days out and we aren't far from something as it stands now. I guess I'm just preparing myself for the inevitable, and if by some miracle we get a nice surprise out of this, then I'll have no problem eating some crow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Also agree we probably won't jackpot, but not ready to dismiss a warning level snowfall. The system seems pretty juiced, and the cold air wrapping in, is legit rapid change over type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 16 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: I guess I'm just preparing myself for the inevitable, and if by some miracle we get a nice surprise out of this, then I'll have no problem eating some crow. lol I don't blame you, but I always go back to the fact that if we were in the bulls eye now we'd all be worried about a shift one way or another. That wave coming in behind, if it speeds up or the storm slows down that would help nudge it east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 32 minutes ago, JPOracle said: Hahaha, if you knew who i was you would be shocked lol, lets just say i could buy the Steelers if i really wanted too. Call me an troll or what ever but i am a scientist and my tornado research is consider well one of the best (NERV) aka National Environmental Research Vector (NGO) Lol... We're lucky to have someone of your pedigree in our thread The typing errors sure do seem to follow a pattern though I must say. Anyway, giving this storm until 0z tmrw before giving up hope. Sure looks like it has its eyes on Ohio and Michigan though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Saw this graphic on Twitter. Poster makes the claim that the difference between the two tracks is determined on the 11th. No one is ruling this thing out until then. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Heh. So, Levi added the German ICON model this evening. Here is the last run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Love that map and remember it well. My buddy saw that and argued with me because he thought it was a forecast for additional snow not storm totals. Lol Do any of you remember what the forecast was the day before this big storm? I know forecast totals were not this high. I can't remember otherwise I wouldn't have driven into work that morning. Did the storm track shift? Temperature drop? It would be interesting to know just in case it could ever happen again. Would love to hear storm analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 0Z NAM east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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