blackngoldrules Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Mondays storm still looks to be a mostly snow event but the nam and GFS do not have much precip 1-2 inches. Canadian still showing a 3-5 storm. Regardless it looks more and more like a clipper type storm before the warmer air comes in. Let's hope it over performs. Another good thing is Mondays snow will be a day time event. We will actually be able to watch it snow. Unlike the overnight night snows where it snows while we sleep and is over when we wake up. I know it is not a foot but I have learned you take what you can get.And then whatever we get won't stick around for too long. Looks like a pretty decent warm-up later next week. Then, we may have flooding concerns from frozen rivers melting and ice jams. Of course, I'm getting ahead of myself here. Will be nice to finally get the salt off of our vehicles.Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 18z GFS looks a bit better for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Mailman said: 18z GFS looks a bit better for Monday. Better than 12z atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Not to get too far ahead, but the main three models continue to show a trough next weekend, with some form of a LP moving up the coastal plain. Its one of the better H5 setups we've seen in awhile, despite not having a closed low as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, blackngoldrules said: And then whatever we get won't stick around for too long. Looks like a pretty decent warm-up later next week. Then, we may have flooding concerns from frozen rivers melting and ice jams. Of course, I'm getting ahead of myself here. Will be nice to finally get the salt off of our vehicles. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk It looks like after next weekend things really go into torch mode. I think until then while we will warm early next week things aren't totally hostile for snow. We have Monday, and the GFS has been fairly consistent at something next weekend too, although consistency means little at this range. After next weekend though probably little to no chance for any snow other than something little on the backside of a cutter. I'm hoping by next weekend we start to see hints of a reload. I don't hate the idea of a little warm up, but sustained 50s in Jan.. I'll pass, plenty of time for that in March and April, why waste peak winter time when we only really get 3 months out of the year for snow. I know many are tired of the cold, but it at least gives the opportunity for snow, the pattern being projected after the 15th is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 The cold needs to go. We have fought 5 house fires in last 3 Days. The one last night a young man lost his life. It’s all cause of the cold weather, plus fire attacks are awful due to frozen hydrants, hose lines being frozen. Im a snow fan, but having snow in the mid- upper 20’s is better then nothing with wind chills in the -30 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 538 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2018.SYNOPSIS... .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather should continue through Sunday as high pressure slides E across the area, though clouds should increase by Sunday afternoon in warm advection. A deepening upper trough is progged to track from the Western CONUS to the Plains over the weekend. A southern cutoff low is progged to develop, as the nrn portion of the trough advances across the Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley region by Monday. This wave and it`s associated cold front should spread a wintry mix of precipitation across the area. Models are still in some disagreement on the amount of warm advection in advance of the wave. Critical thicknesses and model soundings indicate snow is the most likely precip type N of Route 422, with a possible mix of snow, rain and freezing rain to the south. Based precip type on a model blend, leaning a little more toward the colder GFS, but still maintaining some forecast consistency. Regardless, QPF amounts are expected to be on the light side. Will maintain the HWO mention of possible winter weather advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 14 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said: Not to get too far ahead, but the main three models continue to show a trough next weekend, with some form of a LP moving up the coastal plain. Its one of the better H5 setups we've seen in awhile, despite not having a closed low as of now. Agree....and I don't see that much of a warm up during this week according to the 6z GFS before a turn to colder on Saturday. Later on there are hints of a much greater warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 For Monday's event the NAM went from .5 to 3 inches in one run. View. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 For Monday's event the NAM went from .5 to 3 inches in one run. View. I’m not by a computer. Anything change with the Vort?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 40 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: I’m not by a computer. Anything change with the Vort? . Looks like it digs more and doesn't scour out the cold air as fast. Btw 12z GFS is beautiful. 6-10 inches. Perfect track For us. Wish we could lock that in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Looks like it digs more and doesn't scour out the cold air as fast. Btw 12z GFS is beautiful. 6-10 inches. Perfect track For us. Wish we could lock that in now. 6-10 for Monday??. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: 6-10 for Monday?? . No the 14th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 6, 2018 Author Share Posted January 6, 2018 1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said: 6-10 for Monday?? . Monday's storm shaping up to be not so bad. I'll take a general 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 10 hours ago, psunate1977 said: The cold needs to go. We have fought 5 house fires in last 3 Days. The one last night a young man lost his life. It’s all cause of the cold weather, plus fire attacks are awful due to frozen hydrants, hose lines being frozen. Im a snow fan, but having snow in the mid- upper 20’s is better then nothing with wind chills in the -30 range. Here we go with your same song and dance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 PBZ still calling for a mix on Monday. Lake Erie at 80% covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 1 hour ago, KPITSnow said: Here we go with your same song and dance.... ****ing loser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 1 hour ago, cwc said: PBZ still calling for a mix on Monday. Lake Erie at 80% covered. No mix in chalk hill forecasted..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 No mix in chalk hill forecasted.....Moving out of Bethel Park is the best thing you ever did snow wise. LolSent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 NAM seems to be colder. Mixing may not be an issue until the precip is mostly done. Maybe some drizzle at the end. Still a solid 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 1 hour ago, north pgh said: NAM seems to be colder. Mixing may not be an issue until the precip is mostly done. Maybe some drizzle at the end. Still a solid 2-3. I can almost guarantee that mixing will be an issue in the South Hills, especially where I'm at near the county border. Almost always is for me. Allegheny County is so often the dividing line. When I'm getting a mixed bag or a changeover to rain, you guys to the north tend to stay snow a lot longer. We'll see. BTW, temps are really dropping like a rock tonight. I'm at -3 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 -7 as I'm hitting the sack, and on a steep decline. Checking the area meso......Moraine Park is -13 and New Castle airport is -11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 29 minutes ago, TeaysValleyWV said: -7 as I'm hitting the sack, and on a steep decline. Checking the area meso......Moraine Park is -13 and New Castle airport is -11 I think some records are going to fall tonight. KPIT is at -2 right now with the record being -5. If it stays mostly clear there tonight, I think that record will fall along with others across the area. I'm at -4 now on my weather station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 6 hours ago, psunate1977 said: ****ing loser Lol. Let us know next time a roof collapses because of too much snow. seriously, how many different handles do you have on here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 2 hours ago, blackngoldrules said: I can almost guarantee that mixing will be an issue in the South Hills, especially where I'm at near the county border. Almost always is for me. Allegheny County is so often the dividing line. When I'm getting a mixed bag or a changeover to rain, you guys to the north tend to stay snow a lot longer. We'll see. BTW, temps are really dropping like a rock tonight. I'm at -3 right now. The Canadian has been my model of choice this year and last and as of now it keeps the mixing at the southern border of PA and WV. If the precip is not too light than you may be okay. I am pulling for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, north pgh said: The Canadian has been my model of choice this year and last and as of now it keeps the mixing at the southern border of PA and WV. If the precip is not too light than you may be okay. I am pulling for you. The models usually seem to underestimate that warm tongue but I hope I get lucky this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: The models usually seem to underestimate that warm tongue but I hope I get lucky this time. Yeah I always lean toward warm air coming in faster than models show unless we have a strong high to the North. This should have relatively weak WAA and cold will be intrenched to the South so maybe this time we luck out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 1 hour ago, blackngoldrules said: I think some records are going to fall tonight. KPIT is at -2 right now with the record being -5. If it stays mostly clear there tonight, I think that record will fall along with others across the area. I'm at -4 now on my weather station. Had - 5 on the car thermometer about 20 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 20 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Had - 5 on the car thermometer about 20 minutes ago. I'm at - 6 now. This is one of those nights when you just have to be thankful to have a warm place to sleep. A lot of people don't. So brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 3k NAM looks like 2-4 locked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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