olafminesaw Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: So that would mean .2 inches of liquid would yield like 5 inches but minus 1 or 2 due to virga and possible compaction/light rates. 2-4 seems pretty doable. My hourly graph has .19 QPF and 3.4", so 18:1 ratios. Hopefully we get some decent banding to maximize ratios. It's pretty rare to get above 20:1 outside lake effect I think (and in those cases you have a lot of compaction like we saw in Erie). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 30 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: My hourly graph has .19 QPF and 3.4", so 18:1 ratios. Hopefully we get some decent banding to maximize ratios. It's pretty rare to get above 20:1 outside lake effect I think (and in those cases you have a lot of compaction like we saw in Erie). Agree, cold temperatures don't guarantee high ratios. That is a common misconception I see in various regional threads. I think there is even a point that it can be to cold for good dendrite growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 353 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2017 OHZ048-057>059-068-069-PAZ031-075-WVZ003-004-012-021-509-300500- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0023.171230T0000Z-171230T1200Z/ Coshocton-Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Greene-Fayette- Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia- Including the cities of Coshocton, Zanesville, Cambridge, Martins Ferry, St. Clairsville, Caldwell, Woodsfield, Waynesburg, Uniontown, Wheeling, Moundsville, New Martinsville, Fairmont, and Morgantown 353 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected. * WHERE...Portions of southwest Pennsylvania, east central Ohio and northern and northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Mine says this for chalk hill no way will there be 7”! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Sweet no advisory here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 I believe there is also a time component like 3 or more inches in a 12 hour period? This will be a fairly drawn out affair so maybe that is partially why. Right. Our 2 to 4 is going to happen over a period of more than 12 hours so no advisory. If it was 12 hours or less, then they'd issue one here. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 The HRRR seems pretty locked in on 2.5-3.5" for the main event the past three runs (through 9am). Any additional light snow/snow showers would be icing on the cake. Of course the HRRR isn't always reliable, but it seems to do well when consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 45 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: Right. Our 2 to 4 is going to happen over a period of more than 12 hours so no advisory. If it was 12 hours or less, then they'd issue one here. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk From my untrained eyes it looks like the advisory is from heavier batch of precip but we get the more prolonged precip to give us our totals further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 27 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: From my untrained eyes it looks like the advisory is from heavier batch of precip but we get the more prolonged precip to give us our totals further north. The PA border looks to be the bullseye with this, then maybe 50-75 miles either side of that. Those areas will likely see 2-4 but I think further north it will be more like 2-3, but then we will likely see a little extra form LES, so it might all be a wash in the end anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The Sterling forecast discussion mentions fairly high winds in the Dendrite Growth Zone limiting ratios (15-17:1). It makes sense that it could limit growth somewhat here too, although it looks like somewhat less of a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The Sterling forecast discussion mentions fairly high winds in the Dendrite Growth Zone limiting ratios (15-17:1). It makes sense that it could limit growth somewhat here too, although it looks like somewhat less of a factor. Where’s Sterling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Where’s Sterling? DC area NWS office Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Warm advection aloft is rapidly increasing from the southwest this evening as radar returns increase areawide. Based upon trends in surface observations as well as the 00z KPBZ sounding, there really isn`t much of a lag between radar indicating precipitation and it actually falling out. This is likely due to a bit more moist boundary layer over our area as compared to points farther west earlier today. That said, ascent in warm advection combined with at least a modestly coupled upper jet structure will traverse the southern half of the area overnight. This is already being verified by the heaviest strip of precipitation scraping along just to the south of area. QPF and snow amounts were adjusted upward just a tad along the southernmost tier of Ohio counties, otherwise the forecast is largely running right on track. A long duration of warm advection through a saturated dendritic layer should result in a very efficient snow across the area. Bufkit profiles suggest a general 20:1 or so seems reasonable, and given the QPF consensus favoring the heaviest amounts generally along and south of I-70 overnight, a quick 2-4 inches of snow will be likely here. Winter weather advisories have been hoisted here for this. Farther north, less moisture will limit amounts overnight. As the system pulls east on Saturday, northwesterly flow quickly increases and instability rapidly increases in cold advection. Lake enhanced snow showers will result in conditions favorable for a quick inch or so over most of western PA, with higher amounts in the snow belts and upslope areas. Due to band- placement uncertainty, no lake effect headlines were issued at this time, however upslope areas will undoubtedly see a longer duration of snow going from system snow tonight straight into upslope until Sunday morning. Thus, advisories have been issued for the duration in the ridges. Fries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Not sure how much anyone pays attention to the HRRR, but its looking pretty solid 3.6 for KPIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 A very dry powdery snow coming down in Bethel right now. Definitely going to have a high ratio snow from this. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 Driving back from southwest New York tomorrow morning. Snowy conditions. Avoiding Erie again like I had to on the way up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2.2" as of 6AM, melted 0.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Looks like a solid two inches, with steady light snow coming down. If we can get a nice squall later I will be more than content. It would appear that KPIT will go 8 consecutive days without reaching 20 degrees. I wonder if that's a record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Looks like a solid two inches, with steady light snow coming down. If we can get a nice squall later I will be more than content. It would appear that KPIT will go 8 consecutive days without reaching 20 degrees. I wonder if that's a record. 9 straight is the record. 1989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 13 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Looks like a solid two inches, with steady light snow coming down. If we can get a nice squall later I will be more than content. It would appear that KPIT will go 8 consecutive days without reaching 20 degrees. I wonder if that's a record. My wallet is definitely feeling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2.7 at my house with still some very light snow falling. 3 in some spots. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 hours ago, TeaysValleyWV said: 2.2" as of 6AM, melted 0.1" Measured 2.5 around 9am. Seems reasonable to expect another half to one inch the rest of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 24 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: 9 straight is the record. 1989 Will be easier to "enjoy" the cold now that the ground is covered. Was 89 a drier period around Christmas? I remember on year for Christmas getting an awesome sled that had levers on each side for brakes / steering, and it was cold and had been cold but we had no snow on the ground. Maybe it was a few years earlier though, but I'm pretty sure I was 8 or 9 at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Went out to shovel about 45 minutes ago. In the couple spots I measured I had right around 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 58 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Will be easier to "enjoy" the cold now that the ground is covered. Was 89 a drier period around Christmas? I remember on year for Christmas getting an awesome sled that had levers on each side for brakes / steering, and it was cold and had been cold but we had no snow on the ground. Maybe it was a few years earlier though, but I'm pretty sure I was 8 or 9 at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Will be easier to "enjoy" the cold now that the ground is covered. Was 89 a drier period around Christmas? I remember on year for Christmas getting an awesome sled that had levers on each side for brakes / steering, and it was cold and had been cold but we had no snow on the ground. Maybe it was a few years earlier though, but I'm pretty sure I was 8 or 9 at the time. 500 mb for the 9 day stretch. Brrr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 About 3" here with still some nice bursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Little chance at this point we see anything but a favorable flow over the lakes from the Jan 4th system but its a possibly significant weather event so I'll end up following it. Interesting trend on the GFS, you can see the spacing between the vorts has gotten more favorable for a phase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Measured 3.5" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Lake Erie is almost 30% covered, expected to be fully covered this week coming up. Earliest freeze since 2000. LES machine turning off early this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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