BigO60 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 3 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Welcome! The models are funded from various agencies around the world. They all take data inputs from around the globe and run the information through advanced equations in an attempt to model the atmosphere. We don't have anywhere near 100% data input, the equations aren't perfectly accurate, and other variables like effects from space can quickly cause a change in the state of the atmosphere at any given time, so the further you get out in time the more these imperfections get magnified. A much more details explanation can be found here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction Generally the ECMWF gets the highest verification scores, but it has limited free access, although recently weather.us started providing quite a few products from this model for free. GFS in run by NCEP and is typically the second best model but all products are available for free.The CMC is run by Envormental Canada. The UKMET is run out of the UK, but getting output can be tricky as its not widely available. Generally you want to see some consensus between models to give higher confidence in a forecast. As for Weather Channel vs AccuWeather, I'm not sure which is better, to some degree they are both going to sue automated processes to generate forecasts. I honestly read the NWS discussion and if I am feeling lazy, just tune into a local news website or weather segment. Thank you for that detailed response, it was really helpful! I’m learning more and more as I continue to read this thread. I never knew how complicated the weather and predicting the weather is. Jerry Seinfeld always made it seem so arbitrary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 51 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: What appears to be the snow equivalent of mist is falling. I imagine there's not enough lift for more organized crystals to form. My buddy in South Park told me it started off the same way at his place, but has turned over to legit flakes now. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 6 hours ago, BigO60 said: I’m new to this forum, and weather forecasting in general. Can any of you tell me what the difference is between all of these models? Also, I usually check the weather channel or accuweather for the forecast but I’ve noticed tremendous discrepancies between the two. Which is more reliable? Thank you for your help and here’s to a new year filled with happiness and snow! Welcome get ready to hate everything about weather, especially if you like big snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Well I woke up to a fresh powdery 4” this morning in chalk hill, then got to Uniontown and they probably had an inch-if that....snow should stick around until next system Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 The lack of precip being shown over the next 10 days is pretty laughable. I am guessing our next good precip event will be once the cold moves out lol but I hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 On 12/26/2017 at 9:21 AM, TeaysValleyWV said: Interesting record for Erie and PA: From NWS Service Cleveland......Erie, PA picked up 19" of new snow from midnight to 6 AM. This brings the storm total to 53" over the past 30 hours, shattering many records. This is the greatest 2-day total in the entire state of PA (prev. record 44" in Morgantown, PA 3/20-21/1958). We were up as far as I-79 and I-80 last night and they have just as much snow as we do here. Must be confined to close to Lake Erie. Damn impressive! Still amazing to think about that Morgantown total though considering it was a synoptic event. Lake snows given the right setup can be incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 hour ago, dj3 said: The lack of precip being shown over the next 10 days is pretty laughable. I am guessing our next good precip event will be once the cold moves out lol but I hope I am wrong. Yeah overpowering cold is usually not conducive for big snows. One of the more irritating aspects is that we can't even get a favorable trajectory off the lakes for some snow showers. Won't be long before Erie starts to ice over though. We really need a juiced up STJ wave to attack the cold dome, even if something could manage to cut west it would be a heck of a front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 The next big cold plunge goes straight down into Texas and into Mexico, lol. Knowing those folks down there a lot of pipes will be freezing. It looks to get bitterly cold in our area centered around the 5th, but continues dry. With no snow cover the ground will be getting frozen pretty deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 44 minutes ago, TeaysValleyWV said: The next big cold plunge goes straight down into Texas and into Mexico, lol. Knowing those folks down there a lot of pipes will be freezing. It looks to get bitterly cold in our area centered around the 5th, but continues dry. With no snow cover the ground will be getting frozen pretty deep. It’s supposed to snow 2-4” for the area on Friday night into Saturday.....other than that it looks dry.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 On 12/25/2017 at 12:14 AM, Mailman said: Wonder when we'll be above freezing again. On 12/25/2017 at 1:09 PM, RitualOfTheTrout said: Probably 2 hours before the next significant precipitation event lol Looks like Friday is the next shot at some snow. Ha, and right on cue.... Really anything past day 5 is really not worth analyzing in this pattern, just thought it was humorous to see this showing up given how dry it looks while we have the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 41 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: It’s supposed to snow 2-4” for the area on Friday night into Saturday.....other than that it looks dry.... Yeah its not much, but GFS showing .15 - .2 total qpf Friday - Sunday with a few impulses coming through. Would think ratios would be better than 10:1 but still looking at about a general 1-3 over a 48 hour period but better than clear blue skies and temps in the teens. Looks pretty similar to 00z Euro precip amounts for this time period, will be interesting to see what 12x Euro shows since its been more consistent with this setup while seems the GFS has just caught on in the last run or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Unfortunately, big-time cold usually means not much snow in this region. The exception to that rule could be if you had a moderate (or stronger) El Nino event occurring with an active STJ to keep a precip train flowing into the cold air mass. The only other possibility is the development of a SE ridge to push the trough in the East further westward. Even in those cases, however, what you usually end up with are coastal huggers, and it's tough for them to throw precip all they back into the Pittsburgh area. Best case scenario is an overrunning event once the pattern relaxes some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 What does it take to get a 1-3" storm to over-perform and drop 3-5"? I doubt this one will given how little moisture there is too work with. I doubt I will manage to total 10" in the 11 months worth of winter break I've had the past 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Euro Total Precip through Sunday about on par with GFS, .1 - .15 If we could manage to squeeze another .1 out of this that would probably be the ceiling I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 4 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Yeah overpowering cold is usually not conducive for big snows. One of the more irritating aspects is that we can't even get a favorable trajectory off the lakes for some snow showers. Won't be long before Erie starts to ice over though. We really need a juiced up STJ wave to attack the cold dome, even if something could manage to cut west it would be a heck of a front end thump. Lake Erie is icing over rather quickly this year. Current mean surface water temp of 36.48 is more than 2 degrees below mean average (38.79). Lake Erie is already 9% covered (it has almost doubled in the past 48 hrs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 TIL there's an 18z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 GFS doesn't look too shabby for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 18 minutes ago, Mailman said: GFS doesn't look too shabby for the weekend. Looks like 4 or 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Looks like 4 or 5 I won't complain about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Oh, Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 18 hours ago, cwc said: Lake Erie is icing over rather quickly this year. Current mean surface water temp of 36.48 is more than 2 degrees below mean average (38.79). Lake Erie is already 9% covered (it has almost doubled in the past 48 hrs). Ice cover up to 16% today. Lake Erie was only progged to ice over 48% this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Anyone else notice that wx.graphics is done? Now asking to subscribe to a new site called weathermodels.com. What a croc. Maue talked extensively on his twitter feed about how the Euro should be free for public use and that is why he made his site. That lasted all of a few months. Back to no free Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 37 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Anyone else notice that wx.graphics is done? Now asking to subscribe to a new site called weathermodels.com. What a croc. Maue talked extensively on his twitter feed about how the Euro should be free for public use and that is why he made his site. That lasted all of a few months. Back to no free Euro Still free on weather.us, which is plenty functional although not the best interface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Still free on weather.us, which is plenty functional if not the best interface. I did notice this. I've never been a fan of the interface of Weather.us I really liked Maue's maps. Oh well. Also, I apologize. After i posted, I realized this belonged in the Banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Seems about right, I'd go 2-3 rather than 3-4, although I don't really know what ratios will be like. I don't have experience with how kuchera does with cold storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Typical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 20 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Typical I'll be shocked if that storm works out like that. So many pieces need to come together just right in the progressive flow at 7 days out.... A few runs from now it might be out in Bermuda lol. or... riding inland just east of the apps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 37 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I'll be shocked if that storm works out like that. So many pieces need to come together just right in the progressive flow at 7 days out.... A few runs from now it might be out in Bermuda lol. or... riding inland just east of the apps... Not that it means much atm, but my untrained eye sees the H5 map supporting a further west solution. This is based on the negative tilt, and position of the closed low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 56 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I'll be shocked if that storm works out like that. So many pieces need to come together just right in the progressive flow at 7 days out.... A few runs from now it might be out in Bermuda lol. or... riding inland just east of the apps... I think it goes further east. Triple phase of the jet stream is hard to make work perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 New GFS consistent with 2-4 in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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