moneypitmike Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 P/C and ZFP have an epic temp fail. Prog was 5*, achieved was 20*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: P/C and ZFP have an epic temp fail. Prog was 5*, achieved was 20*. Yeah. Writing was on the wall last night. I got to 17F. Chilly but mundane. Clouds helped and the air I think was modified enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 18. we meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 I will remember this forgettable air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Radiators mounted up, then thrown off horse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Nice to have frozen ground at least. We kill insects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Radiators mounted up, then thrown off horse. The non-radiators obviously did well, but we all pulled some decent cold max temps yesterday. Overall, this will end up pretty meh for S NH numberswise. When Steve's great-great-great grandchild finds my scrolls he will think "meh". CON 11/10 44/22 11/11 36/19 This morning...20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Some how TF Green (Torch Flamethrower) Green is still +1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Some how TF Green (Torch Flamethrower) Green is still +1.1 CON +1.2 as of midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: CON +1.2 as of midnight. Forgettable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Saw my first snowflakes and now 30mins later we are getting showers in Sandwich. Warm front means business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Morning low was 22.4F Point and click was 6F. I knew we would never get that low as the P and C is weighted and I'm up high. I'm sure areas below got colder but not near 6F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 11 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Morning low was 22.4F Point and click was 6F. I knew we would never get that low as the P and C is weighted and I'm up high. I'm sure areas below got colder but not near 6F Oh no, we got shellacked on verification last night. Being on long term I wasn't diving into details, but that high/mid level RH profile must've been thicker than modeled and/or MOS just blew chunks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Oh no, we got shellacked on verification last night. Being on long term I wasn't diving into details, but that high/mid level RH profile must've been thicker than modeled and/or MOS just blew chunks. Those recent MOS runs were like 35F too cold for the mins at CON combined for the weekend. I can't recall a 2 day stretch that was that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: Those recent MOS runs were like 35F too cold for the mins at CON combined for the weekend. I can't recall a 2 day stretch that was that bad. Great example for why pure computer based forecasts aren't quite there yet. But we also don't do ourselves any favors by blindly following MOS around as we have the last two nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 49 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Saw my first snowflakes and now 30mins later we are getting showers in Sandwich. Warm front means business Wow. Return flow OE precip. That's really rare this time of year. Impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Nice, GOES-16 picked up rocket exhaust from a launch down at Wallops Island this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 GOES-16 Rocket Launch You can see a puff of bright white "cloud" just east of the southern Delmarva (near the MD/VA border) around 1225z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Great example for why pure computer based forecasts aren't quite there yet. But we also don't do ourselves any favors by blindly following MOS around as we have the last two nights. I have no idea...but could the warm landmass affect MOS? I was just outside and even with the wind and cold the past couple of days my lawn is not frozen. Not even a thin surface crust frozen. Obviously, snow radiates the best but I would guess a frozen surface without snow would radiate better than warm soils, stream, ponds etc after a near record October. Could that throw off models or are they that sophisticated they take that into consideration this time of year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: I have no idea...but could the warm landmass affect MOS? I was just outside and even with the wind and cold the past couple of days my lawn is not frozen. Not even a thin surface crust frozen. Obviously, snow radiates the best but I would guess a frozen surface without snow would radiate better than warm soils, stream, ponds etc after a near record October. Could that throw off models or are they that sophisticated they take that into consideration this time of year! Unlikely, but snow cover definitely can throw it off in the other direction (verification is colder than MOS in winter radiation events). The problem is probably climo. MOS wants to decouple, because more often than not ASOS sites are calm at night. So dry air mass and calm winds and MOS wants to drill temps down. MOS was OVC last night, so not sure why it still insisted on single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 19 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Unlikely, but snow cover definitely can throw it off in the other direction (verification is colder than MOS in winter radiation events). The problem is probably climo. MOS wants to decouple, because more often than not ASOS sites are calm at night. So dry air mass and calm winds and MOS wants to drill temps down. MOS was OVC last night, so not sure why it still insisted on single digits. It's moments like this where humans still can add value which is nice. Well, unless you rip and read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 For those interested, I posted my winter outlook in the main forum: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 That's a really nice band of OES precip actually. That's a man cold air mass when you get OES on return flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 24 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That's a really nice band of OES precip actually. That's a man cold air mass when you get OES on return flow. Nah... not memorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2017 Author Share Posted November 12, 2017 2 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Unlikely, but snow cover definitely can throw it off in the other direction (verification is colder than MOS in winter radiation events). The problem is probably climo. MOS wants to decouple, because more often than not ASOS sites are calm at night. So dry air mass and calm winds and MOS wants to drill temps down. MOS was OVC last night, so not sure why it still insisted on single digits. I was a little confused early last night because we had stars out and calm winds and it just wouldn't drop. You can usually tell pretty quickly with the radiators...when SLK/BML/MVL still have decent dew point depressions a couple hours after sunset it's probably going to be a struggle. The true rad nights have the temps catch the dews almost immediately after sunset. Those quick 10-20F drops that show the radiational vacuum is working. Still sitting 15/9 after a couple hours of clear/calm shows something isn't right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I was a little confused early last night because we had stars out and calm winds and it just wouldn't drop. You can usually tell pretty quickly with the radiators...when SLK/BML/MVL still have decent dew point depressions a couple hours after sunset it's probably going to be a struggle. The true rad nights have the temps catch the dews almost immediately after sunset. Those quick 10-20F drops that show the radiational vacuum is working. Still sitting 15/9 after a couple hours of clear/calm shows something isn't right. The water vapor was already there, it just hadn't fully condensed into the thicker clouds we ended up having. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 The NAM actually has a bit of ice tonight near Bob. Looks like they radiate just before that band of OE precip pivots NW. Not sure I buy it 100%, but it's plausible I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 You also have that inv trough sneaking into SE MA during the morning commute. Could be sneaky FZDZ os even -FZRA just away from the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: The NAM actually has a bit of ice tonight near Bob. Looks like they radiate just before that band of OE precip pivots NW. Not sure I buy it 100%, but it's plausible I suppose. What about CT? Rainers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What about CT? Rainers Maybe more tomorrow night with moisture coming in from the east? It's very marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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