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Early Winter Banter, Observations & General Discussion 2017

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10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Many many close family from South to North

I have close family in SFO and LAX, but they are closer to in the water than those hills. My sister got smoked out pretty good downtown SFO a few months ago.

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14 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I have close family in SFO and LAX, but they are closer to in the water than those hills. My sister got smoked out pretty good downtown SFO a few months ago.

San Diego , West Hollywood,Alhambra, SFO(Walnut Creek), Shasta, Bro and wife , Sister and husband, nephews nieces galore plus the Grand nieces and nephews and now great grand nieces and nephews. walnut Creek got smoked out, Bro also lives in Reno and has a farm in Nocal, he sent me vid of a fire tornado across the hill from his farm

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when looking at models, #neverforget how they waffle

Medium Range: Forecasting the blizzard in advance was more difficult than usual, as typically hints of a major storm show up on the model guidance at least more than a week in advance, but in this case there was no model showing a significant storm until only 120-144 hours (5-6 days) out, when the 2/3 0z ECMWF run showed a major nor’easter tracking over NYC and Boston with heavy rain for the coast and a major snowstorm inland. At that time, the ECM was the only model suggesting such an outcome; the rest of the models as well as prior ECM runs were in agreement with showing a weak clipper tracking from the Midwest into the Northeast with 1-3 inches of snow in central-northern New England, with no sign of a coastal low pressure to the south.

Through the rest of the 2/3 and 2/4 runs, the ECM remained the only model to show a major nor’easter, although it gradually trended further southeast with each run, at one point showing the blizzard conditions limited to southeastern New England and eastern Long Island while the rest of the region saw less snowfall. The ECM ensembles, which originally supported the operational ECM runs with the major nor’easter, also gradually trended southeast to show a weak and progressive coastal low. Meanwhile, the rest of the model guidance continued to show a dominant northern stream system with a weak and fast moving low pressure producing 3-6 inches of snow in the central-northern Northeast and light rain in the NYC area. The 2/4 evening runs, only 90 hours away from the storm when typically a significant storm would have more solid model support, began to show a weak coastal low, but kept both northern and southern streams separate, with a clipper quickly moving through the Northeast and the coastal low staying offshore.

Short Range: The rest of the model guidance did not begin to trend to a major nor’easter until the afternoon runs on 2/5, only 78-84 hours away from the storm, and even then was still inconsistent with the scenario. The 2/5 12z run of the GFS was the first to show a major coastal storm, showing a moderate rain/snow storm for the area and heavy snow in SE Massachusetts. The CMC also began to show a strong coastal low around that time, but was still too progressive, showing a quick moderate snow event in the interior Northeast and light-moderate rain for the NYC area. The ECM remained mostly consistent with its scenario of a major snowstorm while the ensemble mean also trended back to a similar output, showing Connecticut into Rhode Island and Massachusetts under the heaviest snow.

The 2/6 and 2/7 runs, only 1-2 days prior to the storm, continued the theme of model inconsistencies aside from the ECM, which remained the most consistent and accurate model. While some runs of the ECM were a little too far east and north with the heavy snow axis, it performed the best out of the model guidance, especially in the medium range when it was the only model to correctly depict a major coastal storm despite no support from other models and even its ensemble mean at one point. The GFS’ depiction of a major snowstorm was short lived, as most of its 2/6 runs were too far east, too weak and too warm with the coastal low, showing a rain to light-moderate snow event for the area with the major snowfall from the coastal low limited to southeast Massachusetts. Its 2/6 18z run was the most accurate, showing heavy snow over central Long Island and CT into Boston, but the rest of the 2/7 runs, only 1 day before the storm, were too far east with the coastal low, keeping the deformation band (which in reality was over central CT into Maine) offshore, barely clipping coastal New England, with a moderate to locally heavy snow event. The runs on the day of the storm, 2/8, were also too far southeast, with 4 to 8 inches of snow in NYC/northern NJ and 8 to 14 inches of snow in southern New England. The CMC and UKMET also had a similar issue with temperatures too warm and keeping the heaviest snow offshore, with the CMC showing a mostly rain event for NYC prior to the 2/7 12z run. The UKMET also showed a relatively insignificant event across the region with its 2/7 runs, depicting the coastal low too far southeast.

The 2/8 0z run of the NAM at hour 27, showing the heaviest banding of 3+ inches/hour over NYC and northern NJ. In reality, this band set up in central-eastern LI and central CT. Image from NCEP Model Analysis and Guidance.

nam_namer_027_850_temp_mslp_precip.gifThe NAM, which had a poor performance overall in the winter of 2012-13, continued to show a weak clipper with a disorganized coastal low, not showing a major coastal storm until its 2/6 12z run, only 54-60 hours before the storm, and began a trend of inconsistent and highly inaccurate runs, showing a wide swath of 60-65 inches of snow from Boston to Maine with its 2/6 runs. The NAM did not show moderate snow accumulations in the NYC area until its 2/7 6z run, the day before the storm, when it showed the storm too far west with the heavy snow axis from New Jersey into eastern NY with 24-36 inches of snow. As recently as the 2/8 0z run, only 12 hours before the storm started, it was too strong and too far west with the storm, with a storm maximum of 36-45 inches of snow in NW NJ and SE NY, and only showed a reasonably correct scenario for the first time with the 6z run. While on a regional scale, the NAM was exaggerated with snow totals due to its typical wet bias, showing widespread 24-48 inches across the region, on a localized scale it was more reasonable with the maximum snow totals under the heavier banding, as Hamden, CT recorded 40 inches of snow.

 

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I hate the way work interferes with my ability to keep up with this board.  Does anyone else have that problem?

Lol,.sometimes I think the opposite, like the non mets who seem to post every minute. I probably read this forum more than I should while at work and I hardly contribute anything of substance.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

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But yea, Ginx’s point holds weight. Besides March 2017 for the interior, which had unanimous support for 10 days straight, most systems (especially originating from Canada ey) will have two handfuls of different solutions. 

 

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

But yea, Ginx’s point holds weight. Besides March 2017 for the interior, which had unanimous support for 10 days straight, most systems (especially originating from Canada ey) will have two handfuls of different solutions. 

 

It's a game we play every winter. MR and LR  individual threats specifics arent. We play along until inside 96 50% then we get an understanding of possibilities then inside 72 65%  we start to fine tune, inside 48 its 75% inside 24 85% . You can see 24 inches end up flurries and the opposite , fact is even the very brightest minds are not good with exact details outside 48 hrs.

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CzGK7IpUoAAPm20.jpg

Always crazy to see this observation form pop up on this date every year. "Obstruction to visibility, at this point we're terrified."

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10 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's a game we play every winter. MR and LR  individual threats specifics arent. We play along until inside 96 50% then we get an understanding of possibilities then inside 72 65%  we start to fine tune, inside 48 its 75% inside 24 85% . You can see 24 inches end up flurries and the opposite , fact is even the very brightest minds are not good with exact details outside 48 hrs.

I think the smart ones are making some progress on this though. Some of that fuzzy clustering analysis can start to show you different camps. I think as we get more comfortable with that type of forecasting, it may allow us to rule out certain scenarios vs. saying everything is still on the table.

But clearly you're right about specifics, it's best not to get too detailed outside of that 3-4 day window.

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21 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I think the smart ones are making some progress on this though. Some of that fuzzy clustering analysis can start to show you different camps. I think as we get more comfortable with that type of forecasting, it may allow us to rule out certain scenarios vs. saying everything is still on the table.

But clearly you're right about specifics, it's best not to get too detailed outside of that 3-4 day window.

When tiny details matter. Example jet positioning on NAM last 12 runs, guess the hits

 

namconus_uv250_us_fh51_trend.gif

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6 minutes ago, ajisai said:

My wife has to walk to work... she's pregnant and a little over a month away. How do we keep her safe in the snow until she finishes working (early Jan)? Anyone got tips? We're not from a place where it snows.

A good pair of snow boots always helps....they will grip the snow/ice better than dress shoes...If she has to wear dress shoes to work, then just bring them and change into them when there.

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9 minutes ago, ajisai said:

My wife has to walk to work... she's pregnant and a little over a month away. How do we keep her safe in the snow until she finishes working (early Jan)? Anyone got tips? We're not from a place where it snows.

Get a sled and hire a puller

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

A good pair of snow boots always helps....they will grip the snow/ice better than dress shoes...If she has to wear dress shoes to work, then just bring them and change into them when there.

Thanks! I'll have to take a look at her boots. I'm not sure if they're actually "snow" boots or just boots.

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2 minutes ago, ajisai said:

Thanks! I'll have to take a look at her boots. I'm not sure if they're actually "snow" boots or just boots.

Yeah there can be a difference between just regular hiking or walking boots and a good pair of winter snow boots.

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52 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Take her to LL Bean's in Freeport Maine, Or go on there website, They make a great winter boot, Last pair you will ever have to buy.

Then add the strap-on cleats for when it's icy.

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14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yup, I use them Ice fishing.

Hope to do better than last year, when I never dug a hole.  The 21" in late Dec meant my favorite ice fishing pond was topped by 6-12"+ of slush-lined snow right thru the end of March.  30 years ago I'd have slogged thru that stuff, but same as -10 mornings, I'm more picky now.

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Just now, tamarack said:

Hope to do better than last year, when I never dug a hole.  The 21" in late Dec meant my favorite ice fishing pond was topped by 6-12"+ of slush-lined snow right thru the end of March.  30 years ago I'd have slogged thru that stuff, but same as -10 mornings, I'm more picky now.

As am i, Sitting out in the elements in the single digits opening holes every hour ship has sailed away.

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46 minutes ago, dryslot said:

As am i, Sitting out in the elements in the single digits opening holes every hour ship has sailed away.

And my ancient (circa 1961) spoon augur only drills a 6" hole.  When it's under 20, especially in January, the hole ices in from the sides.  I recall an awful day in 1986 on Sand Pond in Litchfield, high was 9, no sun, and light snow began late morning, falling on glare ice with some raised and rounded frozen footprints from an earlier thaw to initiate loss of balance.  There's no closer approach in nature to a frictionless surface than powder on cold and smooth ice.  By the time we left, fishless, about 3 PM, my 6" holes were still wide enough to get the bait out, but not by much.
(Also memorable because the next 36 hours brought SE gales, 40s, and significant flooding of the Kennebec, though just a spritz compared to the following year.)

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Its coming down out there...ridgeline getting crushed on radar.  Bolton-Stowe-Smuggs area looks lit.  Nothing more than a tenth or maybe two, but snowing steadily at home.

NQlI9I4.gif

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