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Early Winter Banter, Observations & General Discussion 2017


powderfreak

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3 minutes ago, White Rain said:

This was one of those weird set ups where the eastern foothills and lowlands ice better than higher elevations to the west. Usually in all other situations Hubbardston is the coldest location.

When it's really shallow, you see it bank up against the spine of the ORH hills.

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4 minutes ago, White Rain said:

This event seems uncommon in that the cold air never scoured out. The NWS was playing catch up all day as they kept extending the advisory from 9 to 11 to 1, they should have just kept it going all day. High was 32.5F and forecast was for 53F. Kept expecting the warmth to move north and east but never did. 

Your high temp may still be coming once deep layer NW flow takes hold.

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16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yikes but that explains the silence from DIT today.  He's usually all over these novelty CAD icing stuff.

And wow near Lexington...PWS showing 57F right next to 32-37F.  Near Auburn, MA too...crazy stuff.

You needed to be on east facing slope and north of ORH.. otherwise you torched for like an hour or two 

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You needed to be on east facing slope and north of ORH.. otherwise you torched for like an hour or two 

Yeah it was a bit different as sometimes it's the high terrain down to your area that holds the cold in that 500-1500ft layer.  This seemed extremely shallow as even BED has only gone up 34F today.  Coastal plain in Mass was colder than up here where we hit 36F.  

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Just now, w1pf said:

NWS (or models in general) need(s) to do some work on cold air scouring or not.. they don't seem to have a handle on that at all..

The hires models do a decent job of sniffing it out, but they just underestimate it. Last night’s Plymouth WRF was pretty cold today for the region. I’ll have to find the maps valid for 21z today.

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Question for the Mets..

There seems to be a vast area in CNE that is 32F to 33F.  This area is covered with ice.  Is this temperature a coincidence or does it have something to do with the melting/freezing process?  

It’s the latent melting/fusion thermodynamic effects. It’s why we can get deep isothermal 0C layers with wet snow events. Where the flake starts to melt the air around it cools...where the flake starts to freeze the air around it warms. Put a temp probe into an ice water bath and it’ll tend to stay around 32F until most of the ice melts.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It’s the latent melting/fusion thermodynamic effects. It’s why we can get deep isothermal 0C layers with wet snow events. Where the flake starts to melt the air around it cools...where the flake starts to freeze the air around it warms. Put a temp probe into an ice water bath and it’ll tend to stay around 32F until most of the ice melts.

2008 was a classic example of this

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The hires models do a decent job of sniffing it out, but they just underestimate it. Last night’s Plymouth WRF was pretty cold today for the region. I’ll have to find the maps valid for 21z today.

For 18z today (18hr forecast). BOS just broke into the warm sector on this prog so it was still a hair too overzealous with bringing the sfc warm front north.

4F25B7EA-DD7A-4142-8E3B-6406F01C2FC4.png

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I work in Shrewsbury on a 400' hill .. the trees were still crowned in white glow leaving the office at 4:05 ...though dripping had commenced. I started back through town and by the time I hit the light at town center, the temp was up from 34 in the parking lot to 37 ... and there was very little if any accretion clinging on for dear life manly in bushes and shrubbery.   Up 140 ...same. Hit 290 and the temp dipped from 37 to 33 at that big bridge that spans that water where the rowers row (sorry don't know what that body of water is in the valley...).  Up the hill and the temp popped to 40 ...  Merged on 190 North ...38 ... 37 ... 36 by the time I hit the curves and the trees were crowned in glow and this time it was everywhere.  The whole way up I90 it was bouncing 33 to 35 with heavy glaze glowing everywhere.  Pretty spectacular with some peach colored evening sun slicing in to the scenery.  Hit Rt 2 ...same... In Ayer 33 F hasn't budge and the dripping is really light.  Comparatively, it's about identical to the look around town when the icing ended in the system prior to Xmass.  

Not bad for a forecast' high of what ...55 ?    solid 23 F bustorama

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

For 18z today (18hr forecast). BOS just broke into the warm sector on this prog so it was still a hair too overzealous with bringing the sfc warm front north.

Thats about as good of an 18 hour forecast as I can find looking back through the models. I also like the output for Pittsburg, even though its the extreme southside of town.

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35 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it was a bit different as sometimes it's the high terrain down to your area that holds the cold in that 500-1500ft layer.  This seemed extremely shallow as even BED has only gone up 34F today.  Coastal plain in Mass was colder than up here where we hit 36F.  

If there had been a snowpack I would have been both irate and devastated today. But with only grass now and thru the next 2 weeks or so, I honestly didn’t care at all

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24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I work in Shrewsbury on a 400' hill .. the trees were still crowned in white glow leaving the office at 4:05 ...though dripping had commenced. I started back through town and by the time I hit the light at town center, the temp was up from 34 in the parking lot to 37 ... and there was very little if any accretion clinging on for dear life manly in bushes and shrubbery.   Up 140 ...same. Hit 290 and the temp dipped from 37 to 33 at that big bridge that spans that water where the rowers row (sorry don't know what that body of water is in the valley...).  Up the hill and the temp popped to 40 ...  Merged on 190 North ...38 ... 37 ... 36 by the time I hit the curves and the trees were crowned in glow and this time it was everywhere.  The whole way up I90 it was bouncing 33 to 35 with heavy glaze glowing everywhere.  Pretty spectacular with some peach colored evening sun slicing in to the scenery.  Hit Rt 2 ...same... In Ayer 33 F hasn't budge and the dripping is really light.  Comparatively, it's about identical to the look around town when the icing ended in the system prior to Xmass.  

Not bad for a forecast' high of what ...55 ?    solid 23 F bustorama

Lake Quinsigamond Tip. Parts of Shrewsbury always seem to do well in Cad, used to work in Westborough and they do too. Not sure why.

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1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

High of 40F here when the sun popped out but hovered around 34F most of the day.   33F now, still plenty of snow up in my neighborhood, less in town.  

No shut um down, rains melted all snow to Canada? Some will be pissed when they were near 55 and others had a pretty sweet ice event.

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