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Early Winter Banter, Observations & General Discussion 2017


powderfreak

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Man... that NAM still refuses to budge on this thing at 12z ... It has BOS (FRH grid point) at 0 C at 12z in the 980 mb level, which was about spot on/initializaton ... but bottle rockets that location to 51 at 980 mb by 18z ... 

That's going to be interesting to monitor.  This whole situation may just be acutely exposing the intrinsic inability of even higher resolution modeling types to resolve the topographical feed-backs into the lower boundary layer - like ... the model just tosses the initialization because it doesn't mean anything to it as 'undefined'. heh

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yeah.. just to be clear.

the bust doesn't stop busting if the accretion halts.   i think it is important to distinguish that and nip it in the bud ahead of time, because in the annuls of busts it should not matter whether it's 31.9 or 32.2... This was canned by the models with stench

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Man... that NAM still refuses to budge on this thing at 12z ... It has BOS (FRH grid point) at 0 C at 12z in the 980 mb level, which was about spot on/initializaton ... but bottle rockets that location to 51 at 980 mb by 18z ... 

That's going to be interesting to monitor.  This whole situation may just be acutely exposing the intrinsic inability of even higher resolution modeling types to resolve the topographical feed-backs into the lower boundary layer - like ... the model just tosses the initialization because it doesn't mean anything to it as 'undefined'. heh

Yea I don't quite understand it either. Using the 0z WRF-ARW2, since it seems to be verifying closest to 2m temps thus far. Gets me up to mid to upper 30's - that's it.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah.. just to be clear.

the bust doesn't stop busting if the accretion halts.   i think it is important to distinguish that and nip it in the bud ahead of time, because in the annuls of busts it should not matter whether it's 31.9 or 32.2... This was canned by the models with stench

Yeah guidance was really bad in this...it typically almost always underestimates the CAD and the extent southwest anyway...but this was one of the worst ones in a while.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah guidance was really bad in this...it typically almost always underestimates the CAD and the extent southwest anyway...but this was one of the worst ones in a while.

i'm actually kicking my self for not being a bit more steadfast ... up through three days ago i was hammering the colder solution but as jbenet astutely defined, it's hard in the face of a tsunamis of shorter range guidance to stick to one's guns.  so... much to my chagrin i holstered mine. 

but, i'm claiming a moral victory here ?  

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yesterday's 18z NAM had ORH almost 50F at this hour....the 18z GFS was even worse...it had ORH at 52F by 15z. At least the 00z GFS improved to 49F...but then the 06z GFS regressed back to 50F on a 9 hour forecast. 06z NAM was at 40F.

Agreed, my temp sat @ 27F from midnight to about 6am, went from 28F to now 30F................please NO flash freeze later! Rather have snow then this, however, auto body shops are happy

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25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Man... that NAM still refuses to budge on this thing at 12z ... It has BOS (FRH grid point) at 0 C at 12z in the 980 mb level, which was about spot on/initializaton ... but bottle rockets that location to 51 at 980 mb by 18z ... 

That's going to be interesting to monitor.  This whole situation may just be acutely exposing the intrinsic inability of even higher resolution modeling types to resolve the topographical feed-backs into the lower boundary layer - like ... the model just tosses the initialization because it doesn't mean anything to it as 'undefined'. heh

 

19 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea I don't quite understand it either. Using the 0z WRF-ARW2, since it seems to be verifying closest to 2m temps thus far. Gets me up to mid to upper 30's - that's it.

I think part of the issue is the nature of the inversion too. It is very shallow but strong. Even a tiny amount of mixing is spiking temps well into the 30s and 40s. 

Just taking our sounding, if we mix to 970ish (about 500-700 feet) today that's 35-36 just eyeballing it. Imagine if a model is trained to naturally mix out during the daylight. 

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I think between the sleet and freezing drizzle, we're a little closer to rime ice than pure glaze ice here. The trees and very white, so definitely on the opaque side.

that's the best kind...  if you are going to ice and risk grid (ha!) ... having pixie dust mixed in making it white like that is pretty fantastic looking

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

so long as the ageostrophic flow continues to undercut... if the accretion lightens up ..you may actually recede a half degree.  If the accretion continues at this hefty rate, that's offsetting.

I was wondering....does the latent heat release get folks above 32, or just up a couple of degrees?  If it doesn't get above 32, and the wind continues out of the north then some places are going to have one helluva ice storm in a short period of time.

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