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Early Winter Banter, Observations & General Discussion 2017


powderfreak

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56 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Amazing how little precipitation can cause a mess.  Just ran out and took a good 10 minutes to scrape the car off of snow grains/sleet/zr.

I feel like warm frontal precip in a cutter is exactly what a Winter Weather Advisory was made for.

axQqjV5.gif

Heh. I follow you on the advisory aspect, but is this really a cutter? I’m nitpicking of course—but this system is a prime specimen for further muddying the definition of a true cutter. Check out the 0z NAM. Is that a miller B or a cutter? Secondary develops near Portland ME. Looks a lot like the 0z EPS from four/five days ago. Anyway, the warm sector is so disjointed with this, it obviously means little in terms of our sensible weather...just thought I’d bring some attention to it...

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17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, funny that's the progression it took here too (freezing drizzle to snow) but about 6 hours ago and has since gone back to IP/ZR.

I believe that’ll be our scenario as well.  Morning commute won’t be nice, I happened to fit my truck with winter studs this year.  Didn’t need them but they were free!  Might be useful tomorrow morning anyway.

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15 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Reports of multiple vehicles off the road Rt 93 around Northfield/Tilton.  That's Brian's back yard.  Report was not clear if Rt 93 shutdown...

Looks like both lanes were shutdown, but it’s cleared now according to i93 twitter.

23.9° with lighter sleet now.

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18 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said:

I believe that’ll be our scenario as well.  Morning commute won’t be nice, I happened to fit my truck with winter studs this year.  Didn’t need them but they were free!  Might be useful tomorrow morning anyway.

Yeah you guys will always hold onto the cold the longest in WAA scenarios, and the main goal is to get as much of the precip to fall at or below 32F.  

Pouring sleet here and a very firm/slick surface developing in the parking lot.

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We ice.

Friend is leaving Whitefield at noon down 93 to Boston/logan. Wonder how the notch to Northfield area will be then.

Any ideas should that be above 32

NAM 2m is 30F here at 15z tomorrow. Inside of 12-24hr I can’t really recall where it was too cold during a CAD situation here. We’ll probably rot in the low to mid 30s until the westerlies finally mix us out and by then the CAA in the mid levels will already be well underway. There’s a chance we don’t even spike out of the upper 30s here.

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NAM 2m is 30F here at 15z tomorrow. Inside of 12-24hr I can’t really recall where it was too cold during a CAD situation here. We’ll probably rot in the low to mid 30s until the westerlies finally mix us out and by then the CAA in the mid levels will already be well underway. There’s a chance we don’t even spike out of the upper 30s here.

0z 3km pretty much wedges down to lwm til fropo

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33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NAM 2m is 30F here at 15z tomorrow. Inside of 12-24hr I can’t really recall where it was too cold during a CAD situation here. We’ll probably rot in the low to mid 30s until the westerlies finally mix us out and by then the CAA in the mid levels will already be well underway. There’s a chance we don’t even spike out of the upper 30s here.

RGEM has a serious ice storm just to your NE

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30 F with flags pointing SW at dawn...and back-loaded cold with depressed DPs all the way into Maine = no warm penetration, period. 

in fact, i'd be bit concerned for a short duration /significant ice accretion at places like BED-ASH-FIT and maybe down into lower ORH Co at that as this batch of moderate rain pushes through.  

man, what a hand wringer trying to believe the models would actually succeed in holding back that cold flood of air and that polar high.  yet again...  ... Next week, Lake cutter, models attempt the same thing... 50 page thread about why it won't be icing.  it's almost comical.  

the problem is the planetary surface, ...it's not an atmospheric solution.  The topographical features literally induce llv counter flows and thus given any reason at all, the wind will turn NE anywhere east of the the Berk's, Greens/Whites

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34 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

2 hour school delay in all of Franklin Co. Kind of humorous since most locales out here are 32-34F.    Some patchy ice in the driveway but roads are fine.   32F on the nose.

I take that back, no ice on cars or trees but the road was slick when I walked the dogs.  Ground level just below freezing apparently while it is 32-32.2 at 2m.

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18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

30 F with flags pointing SW at dawn...and back-loaded cold with depressed DPs all the way into Maine = no warm penetration, period. 

in fact, i'd be bit concerned for a short duration /significant ice accretion at places like BED-ASH-FIT and maybe down into lower ORH Co at that as this batch of moderate rain pushes through.  

man, what a hand wringer trying to believe the models would actually succeed in holding back that cold flood of air and that polar high.  yet again...  ... Next week, Lake cutter, models attempt the same thing... 50 page thread about why it won't be icing.  it's almost comical.  

the problem is the planetary surface, ...it's not an atmospheric solution.  The topographical features literally induce llv counter flows and thus given any reason at all, the wind will turn NE anywhere east of the the Berk's, Greens/Whites

Yea Tip, we had the right idea with this for a while. But when all guidance is pinned against you at short lead times it's difficult to stand your ground.

These types of  events are clearly something guidance really struggles---and that's an understatement. Guidance in general can "see" the cold tuck, but forget about the details.... Even the RGEM and NAM have had to continue to correct colder 6 hrs out, virtually every run since 0z Sunday...I am making a mental note here that the ARW-WRF verified best in seeing the duration and intensity of the cold....

I agree, I'm quite concerned that most of that next batch will be ice around here. 27F in Exeter NH.

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