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AMZ8990

Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

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Upper Plateau radar echos are holding together AND cloud tops are staying cold, both good signs for northeast Tenn. Can we get it across to TRI? Most of the high-res NWP has something moving through before it switches to NW flow. 

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8 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Upper Plateau radar echos are holding together AND cloud tops are staying cold, both good signs for northeast Tenn. Can we get it across to TRI? Most of the high-res NWP has something moving through before it switches to NW flow. 

Good catch.  Noticed that the 6z RGEM depicts that, and it (along w the Euro) did pretty well w the final look on this.  

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Tagging onto Jeff's early comment....Following today's snow showers in association w the slp forming on the coast, 12z RGEM and 3k NAM do depict some upslope/northwest flow snow over the next two days.  This "should" be mainly a higher elevation event w possible the normal valley snow showers associated w it in NE areas of the forum.  You know if your microclimate can benefit from these.  

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Token flakes here in upper east tn, which is more often then not typical for march and sometimes into april. Blah 

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Steady snow showers in west Kingsport from 9:00 AM until about 2:00 PM.  Snow showers were sometimes moderate to heavy.  The heaviest rates were definitely west of I-81.  Bays Mountain was snow covered even at lower elevations when the clouds first lifted...then the sun went to work.  East of 81 was a different story unless at elevation.  If this had been at night, we would easily have had 2-3" if not more.  Either way, it was the longest duration of snow that I have seen all winter which is unusual.  Great day and nice way to wrap up the winter unless we get hit with some type of Hail Mary which I do not see on any modeling, but will have to be watched as long as we have this stubborn block in place. As Bango mentioned, not uncommon to see snow flurries or showers into April.   

Short term:  Nice weekend on tap it appears after 3-4 days of much BN cold this upcoming week.

Long term:  The real question is does the block re-establish (not that it really leaves)?  The Weeklies from last Thursday were full of bowling balls which would make for a cold, rainy spring w mtn snows after the brief warm-up.  It was a cold run, and I am not sure that I totally buy.  But it could happen.  I do think the models really favor warmth building in from the south/southwest at some point.  It is spring right?  How far/quickly can it push against the block.  Weeklies tonight will be interesting as the EPS had warmth building late in the run.  After a couple of cold weeks, I am ready for spring.

Time for a March/April/May spring thread IMHO...anyone willing to create it?

edit:  @John1122 and I must have been thinking the same thing.  He already has the new thread created! Thanks!

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Ended up getting more snow then I thought I would. Local reports say 2 inches fell in my area last night. I didn't measure so I'm not sure how much fell exactly but not bad at all for almost mid march.

9451ddbe009c2b0e261cd99067046a82.jpg

54fcd950e7b8b7cb259b96aa191dfdd3.jpg


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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25 minutes ago, Olhausen said:

Ended up getting more snow then I thought I would. Local reports say 2 inches fell in my area last night. I didn't measure so I'm not sure how much fell exactly but not bad at all for almost mid march.

9451ddbe009c2b0e261cd99067046a82.jpg

54fcd950e7b8b7cb259b96aa191dfdd3.jpg


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Outstanding! Great pics as well!

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We learned from this that the -NAO is conductive to northern stream energy that brings the snow and that the -NAO is kind to the western, central and eastern areas. Had this been Dec-Feb the storm that got Kentucky and gave Olhausen his snow would likely have worked better for us all from areas further south to areas further east. We are less dependent on the NAO than areas east of us, but when we get a nicely negative one, the good times are usually coming.

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On 3/14/2018 at 7:58 PM, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Found this from a twitter account I follow and I thought I'd throw it in here for posterity (Site: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snowfall/ )  

Sorry should have said this is a seasonal snowfall map to date: (9/17 - 3/14/18)

2017-18 snowfall map.jpg

Ugh. You know it's been a bad winter when coastal GA outdoes you in seasonal snowfall. This has been one of my least favorite winters.

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Cyclonic flow aloft, not just any NW flow, once again will grace the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Accumulating snow at elevation is quite reasonable. Short waves will pinwheel through that cyclonic flow. Plus it stays quite moist up the column. March Madness describes just about everything in March.

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Lol.. Everyone has already logged off for the winter...  Have somewhat significant snow forecasted for the area tomorrow morning and no discussion... lol 

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It's a smaller portion of the area, so less interest, but it's being talked about in the spring thread. 

Get a mod to wipe out this thread since today we turn the page.


.

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Looks like a stout Cold front could push through west Tennessee next week,. Possible snow/sleet next Tuesday.  Would not surprise me if it hsppened.  I've been offline for a few weeks so I haven't got a chance to talk with everybody.  I hope everyone is doing well!

 

AMZ

 

 

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