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Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread


AMZ8990

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GFS is similar, bullseye right in the middle of Kentucky. Famine all around the feast. Could still shift or change but not likely to do too much more. 

It even looks like the mountains are out on this one. 

Not a huge surprise as our two years of winter futility continues unabated in the Eastern half of the Valley as well as some other parts that are in a snow drought on this side of the Apps. If nothing else, we've learned what we don't want to see happen in winter the last two years, as they have been historically bad for our forum in regards to snow totals, rampant drought, wild fires, flooding etc. We've have every extreme except for snowy weather and severe weather over the past two years.

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6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

GFS is similar, bullseye right in the middle of Kentucky. Famine all around the feast. Could still shift or change but not likely to do too much more. 

It even looks like the mountains are out on this one. 

Not a huge surprise as our two years of winter futility continues unabated in the Eastern half of the Valley as well as some other parts that are in a snow drought on this side of the Apps. If nothing else, we've learned what we don't want to see happen in winter the last two years, as they have been historically bad for our forum in regards to snow totals, rampant drought, wild fires, flooding etc. We've have every extreme except for snowy weather and severe weather over the past two years.

yep, almost a spitting image of the 18z run

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Looks like trends are over night and 6z to more energy moving up the eastern valley. Still hoping for N and NW and maybe even W areas can get in on some sort of a TROWAL feature.  Think we just have to see how and where it all develops and swings through.  One concern (and maybe wrong) will also be as the system shifts to a coastal system across the Apps, whatever TROWAL there is associated with the energy transfer may dissipate to reform somewhere north and east. Regarding the TROWAL as a whole, my battle cry: Remember Memphis in 2016 and how that worked out for them. The TROWAL giveth and taketh away.  Feast and famine indeed. I 100% hope it over performs for someone in our areas even if that is at the expense of others (likely me). I wish we could all get in on it, but just don't see it.

I'd be willing to bet the High that builds in later this week as this departs will be a cold one for March. 

 

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1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

You all need a lot of credit for this system. Even though the majority of the forum won’t see anything, you all had this in your sites a month ago. Congrats


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Good Point Powell,. Well done guys.  What about southern and central Kentucky this year,. Y'all have had a pretty good year with the white stuff!!  Side note-. Tiger woods is in the hunt on a Sunday and the VOLS are playing for a championship and a 2 seed in the ncaa tourney. It doesn't get much better than that.  

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True models have struggled a lot for so close to event time. Believe it is two vigorous short waves in a row interacting with each other. While frustrating, it's explainable.

What will become the TROWAL is diving through Missouri as of Noon Sunday. It has taken a right/south turn; but, will it be enough? Keep watching water vapor loops.

Risk of the TROWAL dissipating when the coastal low takes over is real. I'm almost sad for TRI if that happens 2018-ing. On the bright side, long as the TROWAL is going, it also has an inverted surface trough to work with, a plus.

This reminds me of last time BNA was on the bubble, and Kentucky got snow hammered. BNA could get dry slot followed by part of the TROWAL iff it tracks south enough. 

Anyway TRI will go down to the wire - nowcast. Even BNA is an easy TROWAL or not question. TRI also has to worry about it holding together. 

If we can all take a way a small victory, even those of us in cold rain, we have been talking about this for weeks. Here it is!

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I see the nam is trying to give tri some love. Maybe the ull will over perform here and produce colder air which will hopefully produce more snow here? Maybe im just wishcasting but us here in ne tn have been outed so many times this winter cant one thing go right for us?!?!?

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Something I've noticed about these upper lows and I've seen folks on here mention it as well, is that for the northeastern sections (I-40 N) of East TN, after they pass the Apps to the south you can get a fetch down the valley that maintains precip. a little longer than you might think, just as it seems to be moving out, at least that's how it has often seemed to me. I saw this after the NC storm this Jan and wonder if we'll see it tomorrow. It started north of Morristown after that one and moved SW. It just always seemed weird to me since we usually have NE winds at the time and you'd think that would lead to downsloping, but just the opposite seems to be happening. 

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True models have struggled a lot for so close to event time. Believe it is two vigorous short waves in a row interacting with each other. While frustrating, it's explainable.
What will become the TROWAL is diving through Missouri as of Noon Sunday. It has taken a right/south turn; but, will it be enough? Keep watching water vapor loops.
Risk of the TROWAL dissipating when the coastal low takes over is real. I'm almost sad for TRI if that happens 2018-ing. On the bright side, long as the TROWAL is going, it also has an inverted surface trough to work with, a plus.
This reminds me of last time BNA was on the bubble, and Kentucky got snow hammered. BNA could get dry slot followed by part of the TROWAL iff it tracks south enough. 
Anyway TRI will go down to the wire - nowcast. Even BNA is an easy TROWAL or not question. TRI also has to worry about it holding together. 
If we can all take a way a small victory, even those of us in cold rain, we have been talking about this for weeks. Here it is!


Looks like you are spot on. Energy transfer is going to rob areas west of the apps.


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Looks like a winter weather advisories are up for northern middle TN which includes BNA and for portions of the northern Plateau.  Just looking at radar, seems like a pretty heavy band of precipitation(snow?) is working its way east (I-40 northward).  Looks like heaviest returns are in between Nashville and Cookeville.  Not sure Nashville saw that much based on the absence of our observations.  

I would suspect that does not (edit ex post facto:  indeed, it held together) hold together once over the Plateau, but we will see....

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Yeah hoping the band holds together or temporarily reforms for a quick burst as the energy transfer to the coast continues.  WBIR Knoxville has a reporter in Campbell county and looks like some pretty good snow at the Caryville exit of I-75 despite some weak radar echoes. Most Plateau county schools are closed, but not sure how much that has to do with Spring break in my area.  Like I said yesterday, sometimes if the trajectory is just right the eastern valley can help hold things together from around Knoxville north. 

Looking at MRX NEXRAD, interesting to see precip moving in almost every direction at some point in its scanning region.  I wonder if sometimes, as bad as the valley can be for trapping warm air, sometimes it can trap a little eddy in the atmosphere that can prolong low level lift? 

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Convinced, I live in the worst area for potential snowfall in all of Kentucky. Fitting end I suppose, how frustrating it is to see system after system miss to the south, east north and west. It didn't use to be that way, but no doubt things have surely changed. Really takes the perfect storm to lay down a good snow here, they just dont make snow storms like they use to.

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8 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Upper Plateau radar echos are holding together AND cloud tops are staying cold, both good signs for northeast Tenn. Can we get it across to TRI? Most of the high-res NWP has something moving through before it switches to NW flow. 

Good catch.  Noticed that the 6z RGEM depicts that, and it (along w the Euro) did pretty well w the final look on this.  

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Tagging onto Jeff's early comment....Following today's snow showers in association w the slp forming on the coast, 12z RGEM and 3k NAM do depict some upslope/northwest flow snow over the next two days.  This "should" be mainly a higher elevation event w possible the normal valley snow showers associated w it in NE areas of the forum.  You know if your microclimate can benefit from these.  

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Steady snow showers in west Kingsport from 9:00 AM until about 2:00 PM.  Snow showers were sometimes moderate to heavy.  The heaviest rates were definitely west of I-81.  Bays Mountain was snow covered even at lower elevations when the clouds first lifted...then the sun went to work.  East of 81 was a different story unless at elevation.  If this had been at night, we would easily have had 2-3" if not more.  Either way, it was the longest duration of snow that I have seen all winter which is unusual.  Great day and nice way to wrap up the winter unless we get hit with some type of Hail Mary which I do not see on any modeling, but will have to be watched as long as we have this stubborn block in place. As Bango mentioned, not uncommon to see snow flurries or showers into April.   

Short term:  Nice weekend on tap it appears after 3-4 days of much BN cold this upcoming week.

Long term:  The real question is does the block re-establish (not that it really leaves)?  The Weeklies from last Thursday were full of bowling balls which would make for a cold, rainy spring w mtn snows after the brief warm-up.  It was a cold run, and I am not sure that I totally buy.  But it could happen.  I do think the models really favor warmth building in from the south/southwest at some point.  It is spring right?  How far/quickly can it push against the block.  Weeklies tonight will be interesting as the EPS had warmth building late in the run.  After a couple of cold weeks, I am ready for spring.

Time for a March/April/May spring thread IMHO...anyone willing to create it?

edit:  @John1122 and I must have been thinking the same thing.  He already has the new thread created! Thanks!

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We learned from this that the -NAO is conductive to northern stream energy that brings the snow and that the -NAO is kind to the western, central and eastern areas. Had this been Dec-Feb the storm that got Kentucky and gave Olhausen his snow would likely have worked better for us all from areas further south to areas further east. We are less dependent on the NAO than areas east of us, but when we get a nicely negative one, the good times are usually coming.

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