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Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread


AMZ8990

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South Drought Summary

Eastern portions of the South region were wet, with two or more inches of rain falling from southeast Texas, across southern Louisiana, to southern Mississippi. D0-D1 were pulled back in those states and, in central Louisiana, D2 was trimmed where the rainfall was above normal for the week. Half an inch to an inch of precipitation fell across part of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and most of Tennessee, but it was still below normal for the week. As a result, D1-D2 expanded in Mississippi and Tennessee. The Bristol Tri-Cities Airport station in Tennessee has received only 3.73 inches of precipitation since November 11, 2017, which is the driest November 11-January 30 period on record.

From U.S. Drought Monitor.

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2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

I have zero interest in the Super Bowl event down in Chattanooga. Rainy days are great for watching football on TV.

The SSWE is forecast to impact Eurasia, which is no surprise. Peer reviewed research shows a correlation for Eurasia but little to none for NA. Weeklies (CFS/ECMWF) today are in good agreement that China will celebrate the Spring Festival too early this year. SF is even late due to the lunar calendar, but China looks cold anyway.

I will assume the European weeklies are right for the USA. This is my last post of the thread barring another major flip. Look for me in Severe Weather 2018.

OK,bring on severe season..

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GEFS continues the big ridge in the west that turns the flow NW here, keeps the east below normal for the next 16 days. It's has been performing better than the Euro lately too. The Canadian Ens tries to pop the SE ridge on occasion, which hasn't worked all winter. But still generally keeps things below normal, especially after day 10.  The AO is going negative as well. The NAO is positive, but it has been since November. It can help a lot regarding storm tracks, but it has snowed in areas that normally are desperate for the -NAO many times this year. Nor has the NAO effected the severity of the cold here. EPO is still expected to be negative  over the new few weeks.  We may not get snow, but I don't feel like we're done with cold.

Last year winter was bad because it was a +EPO/-PNA combo. This year winter is cold because those two are opposite. I believe the NOAA forecast busted terribly for the DJF period. Cold NW and warm East. The North Pacific has ran the show again this winter to date.

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57 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

OK,bring on severe season..

Actually, she also notes in a tweet from this AM that there is large variability between events.  Looks to me like a lobe of the PV splits into NA. I suspect that is not modeled correctly or downstream events.   As I said above, there is another driver in the norther hemispheric circulation pattern.  Just no way to know right now.  But I suspect that is why we see almost polor opposite surface temps between the GEFS/GEPS vs Euro.  No matter how it ends up, it is an interesting event IMO.

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36 minutes ago, JayCee said:

From U.S. Drought Monitor.

I have been saying for a couple of months now how dry it has been.  This last system putting down .43 was the first system I can remember (in several months) that performed to the level it was supposed to...  Most have been about 1/4 to 1/2 predicted QPF at verification time.

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1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

February only: MJO phase 7 with +global wind is warm. MJO phase 8 with -global wind is warm. Unfortunately the global wind flips as the MJO moves. If true, winter is over. OK maybe this is my last post. We should pin the 2018 Severe Weather thread.

Almost hate to ask because I know you want to be done posting on this.... lol

but how big is the data set (MJO phase 7 with +global wind).  Same question for MJO phase 8 with -global wind?  Is the correlation between what you have pointed out 100%, or near 100%?   

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Sample size is limited. My main reasoning is the massive heat flux into the Mid Latitudes either way; and, SSW research (Eurasia not NA) going meh. 

19 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

but how big is the data set (MJO phase 7 with +global wind).  Same question for MJO phase 8 with -global wind?  Is the correlation between what you have pointed out 100%, or near 100%?   

Signing off for the weekend. Enjoy the college basketball games and maybe the Super Bowl.

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2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I'd feel better (more confident) about it if I had gotten my 2" from last night.... lol

Oh, I have 0 confidence in it. Models can't get anything right this year at the surface. Hi-Res or not. Just flailing failure after flailing failure. But it shift back quite a bit south with it's frozen precip. Reallly lets parts of Eastern Kentucky have it, areas around Jackson get 3-5 inches. It had been rain into Ohio on there.

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Just now, John1122 said:

Oh, I have 0 confidence in it. Models can't get anything right this year at the surface. Hi-Res or not. Just flailing failure after flailing failure.

Well, apparently I checked 0z.  That's what was giving a chunk of east TN 2-3".  12z didn't have much, but did show the shadow of the valley nicely.  Hope some of us get lucky and score a quick couple of inches before washing it away.  At least we have successive fairly moisture laden events coming.  We need rain.

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16 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Well, apparently I checked 0z.  That's what was giving a chunk of east TN 2-3".  12z didn't have much, but did show the shadow of the valley nicely.  Hope some of us get lucky and score a quick couple of inches before washing it away.  At least we have successive fairly moisture laden events coming.  We need rain.

For whatever reason the Euro for a few days had been showing rain over us on the ptype but still increasing snow depth on the snow map. But today at least it seems to be showing snow falling to cause the snow depth increase.

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Saw on MRX website for the history section at the bottom that on this date back in 1996, 4-12in of snow hit the valley with up to 24 in higher elevations. Interesting that we just had this minor snow north of 40 last night into this AM on the anniversary of one of our greatest storms! I guess we can reminisce about those days. Some day it will happen again. Probably not this winter, but someday.

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3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Jax, that is a GREAT person to follow on Twitter.  Going to add her to my people that I follow.  I appreciate the share.  That is goldmine of info. That 2009 event was not warm in the Upper South I don't think.

 

Yeah,no doubt.I'm going to read some of her peer reviews

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Way out there so not the gospel or even close...but both the 0z EPS and 12z GEFS are showing substantial heigh rises over the Davis Straits.  This morning's MJO reading on the ECMWF plot is clearly in phase 8.  Will be interesting to see if/how the global winds change that correlation to the EC.   The last third of February and first half of March could still be impacted by a -NAO.  I matters less as spring goes on.  Plenty of rain on the 6z GFS which is great news...and we will need to watch each system as they are placed in a way that if the first system deepens, it could drive the second south.  And I hold firmly to this, if any of those have thunder...snow within two weeks of the event.  Great win by the Vols last night, so my optimism has an extra boost.  Who would have thought this team would have had 17 wins w quality wins over three different Power 5 conference opponents.

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10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Way out there so not the gospel or even close...but both the 0z EPS and 12z GEFS are showing substantial heigh rises over the Davis Straits.  This morning's MJO reading on the ECMWF plot is clearly in phase 8.  Will be interesting to see if/how the global winds change that correlation to the EC.   The last third of February and first half of March could still be impacted by a -NAO.  I matters less as spring goes on.  Plenty of rain on the 6z GFS which is great news...and we will need to watch each system as they are placed in a way that if the first system deepens, it could drive the second south.  And I hold firmly to this, if any of those have thunder...snow within two weeks of the event.  Great win by the Vols last night, so my optimism has an extra boost.  Who would have thought this team would have had 17 wins w quality wins over three different Power 5 conference opponents.

It really was a good win,. It's nice to see Barnes and Co blow out teams that they should beat.  17-5 at this point of the year is awesome.  I just like the way they all play too, nobody's gonna jump out at you as a superstar but they have 10-11 guys that can and do bring it every game.  They've played a really tough schedule too so that has helped them a lot.

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32 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Way out there so not the gospel or even close...but both the 0z EPS and 12z GEFS are showing substantial heigh rises over the Davis Straits.  This morning's MJO reading on the ECMWF plot is clearly in phase 8.  Will be interesting to see if/how the global winds change that correlation to the EC.   The last third of February and first half of March could still be impacted by a -NAO.  I matters less as spring goes on.  Plenty of rain on the 6z GFS which is great news...and we will need to watch each system as they are placed in a way that if the first system deepens, it could drive the second south.  And I hold firmly to this, if any of those have thunder...snow within two weeks of the event.  Great win by the Vols last night, so my optimism has an extra boost.  Who would have thought this team would have had 17 wins w quality wins over three different Power 5 conference opponents.

Sounds good. I am real close to pulling the spring lever! Good too see the rain for sure. Dismayed that seems like we all lament the models each year how they are struggling with what ever pattern is present. Is this a ongoing thing? Seems like each year it is the same. Cannot even imagine what it must have been like to forecast the weather when I was a kid, back in the 70's, perhaps was easier back then!

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