weathertree4u Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Flip or not to flip...that is the question. The trough should go into the West after the upcoming week with a BIG warmup here. We broke a record high at TRI a few days ago...that kind of warm air mass. Now, is that trough a flip or just a temporary change before reverting back to the trough in the East? There are models that put the trough in the West and lock it in for several weeks...the JAMSTEC might be one of those as it is my understanding that it keeps us in the warm phases of the MJO. The Weeklies step down to cold beginning the first week of Feb. The 0z EPS locks the ridge out West during the 10-15 day time frame...but it should break down about a week after that if the past Weeklies were right. The 0z GEPS is very warm. The 6z GEFS is less bullish. So, looks like a trough in the West gets established for a couple of weeks which will lead to very warm temps. I still like the Jan 20 - Feb 5 time frame. There is always a chance the models are incorrect, and the 6z GEFS shows exactly how to get cold when it should be warm. But the EPS has been pretty solid this winter as have the Weeklies. I think for the time frame that I mentioned above, +5 to +10 seems about right. So is a 14-21 day warm spell a flip? Probably not. But if it locks in, it would be spring here. I think that unlikely since the base state for winter has been cold so far...and since the Weeklies, which have been very good this winter, do show the trough at 500 returning. Add in low solar and the -QBO, and high latitude blocking seems likely to continue. Those ideas have served us well so far. So, I think "thaw" is probably a good term with the NA pattern balaninc out the pattern with cold and heat. Thanks for your thoughts. For example, a week ago, I don't recall thinking I was going to have 3" of snow on the ground Saturday morning and the possibility of at least a dusting more Tuesday with a real threat of going negative Tuesday night. Besides, it is not everyday that the NWS in Nashville, typically ultra conservative in the Winter, for good reason, hard to forecast but for them to mention the long range in their morning discussion is unusual at best and to me says that there is at least the chance that the overall patterns holds into February, which by then, we will be on the upward climb toward Spring. It will be interesting to see how the low solar impacts weather. I know I have posted before about that and that the Nashville area really does not have much in the way of reliable weather records that go back to the last real low solar time period. Although, we do have records going back to the founding of Nashville that indicate that founders were walking across the frozen Cumberland River. The next few years in general should be interesting to say the least. In addition, if you throw in things that are also associated with low solar like increase in volcanism, all we need is one big one to blow during a low solar to have far reaching impacts. 000 FXUS64 KOHX 131133 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 533 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018 .UPDATE... FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... The winter storm that created slick, icy travel for most areas along and north of I-40 was moving away toward the northeast early this morning. It appears all measurable precipitation has ended, with just scattered flurries expected to linger this morning for the Upper Cumberland. A Special Wx Statement was issued last night to highlight the hazardous travel, and this statement will be freshened for the morning. Untreated surfaces will be slow to improve this morning under cloudy and very cold conditions. Slight improvement may occur in the afternoon with a few small breaks in the clouds, but temps will only reach the mid to upper 20s across the Mid State, so some icy patches will remain along and north of I-40. Northwest winds will continue in the 10-20 mph range today, so wind chills will be in the single digits this morning and teens in the afternoon. For tonight, the approaching Arctic high pressure will become centered over the Ohio Valley, extending southward across TN. This will bring clearing skies with lows mainly in the teens, except single digits for the areas with snow cover. Wind chills will be in the singles. On Sunday, there will be more sunshine, but temperatures will recover only into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Lows Sunday night will be around 20 with partly cloudy skies. For Monday (Martin Luther King Jr. Day) a brief warmup will occur as south winds develop ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs will reach the upper 30s to lower 40s. Clouds will increase through the day, with a chance for afternoon rain or snow showers over our northwest counties. Monday night into Tuesday, a cold front / clipper system will bring another strong shot of frigid air, along with a period of wintry wx. Snow pops will be increased to likely for most of the area as the major operational models are in good agreement indicating almost all snow for precip type, with potential accumulations in the one half to 2 inch range. If we do indeed get a fresh coating of snow Monday night through Tuesday morning, it would help bring what may be the coldest day or 2 of winter so far. Highs Tuesday are only expected to reach the teens. Lows Tuesday will drop to the single digits as skies clear out, but snow cover could allow lows to plummet into the single digits below zero. Wednesday will bring highs only in the lower 20s, but perhaps teens again if there is any snow on the ground. Looking ahead, there will be a warmup late week as the upper air pattern becomes less amplified and more wavy. Temps could push toward 60 next Saturday, before crashing down again with the next cold shot a day or 2 later. Indices such as the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are trending downward for late January, indicating at least the potential for continuing cold air outbreaks. It looks like we could have a lot of winter to deal with yet. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OHX&issuedby=OHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 https://www.newsmax.com/headline/dark-winter-cold-global-cooling/2014/11/16/id/607672/ http://shewasabird.blogspot.com/2013/05/photo-friday-frozen-cumberland-river.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 12Z GFS keeps the front with plenty of moisture, connecting it to the gulf as well. Shows as weakening in East TN a bit but I would be suspicious of that with any gulf connection for any period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 GFS paints the cold front meh snow scenario Tuesday. Euro clearly has a stronger southern stream, and drops a narrow but notable 2-4 inch swath. Yes 20:1 ratios. NAM appears to be a compromise. Normally LOL at NAM beyond 60 hours, but it is showing a reasonable blend of the above. Like to see the Canadian more on board, but the NAM is a start. 12Z GFS takes baby steps. Places like Nashville, Knoxville and TRI are favored at this time - per pattern recognition, regardless of NWP. MEM, HSV, CHA will need a more robust southern stream PVA solution to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I like higher ratio for more impressive totals from light qpf, but the thing I hate about high ratio snow is they sublimate faster while below freezing, and of course melt quicker when above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 hours ago, weathertree4u said: Thanks for your thoughts. For example, a week ago, I don't recall thinking I was going to have 3" of snow on the ground Saturday morning and the possibility of at least a dusting more Tuesday with a real threat of going negative Tuesday night. Besides, it is not everyday that the NWS in Nashville, typically ultra conservative in the Winter, for good reason, hard to forecast but for them to mention the long range in their morning discussion is unusual at best and to me says that there is at least the chance that the overall patterns holds into February, which by then, we will be on the upward climb toward Spring. It will be interesting to see how the low solar impacts weather. I know I have posted before about that and that the Nashville area really does not have much in the way of reliable weather records that go back to the last real low solar time period. Although, we do have records going back to the founding of Nashville that indicate that founders were walking across the frozen Cumberland River. The next few years in general should be interesting to say the least. In addition, if you throw in things that are also associated with low solar like increase in volcanism, all we need is one big one to blow during a low solar to have far reaching impacts. 000 FXUS64 KOHX 131133 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 533 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018 .UPDATE... FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... The winter storm that created slick, icy travel for most areas along and north of I-40 was moving away toward the northeast early this morning. It appears all measurable precipitation has ended, with just scattered flurries expected to linger this morning for the Upper Cumberland. A Special Wx Statement was issued last night to highlight the hazardous travel, and this statement will be freshened for the morning. Untreated surfaces will be slow to improve this morning under cloudy and very cold conditions. Slight improvement may occur in the afternoon with a few small breaks in the clouds, but temps will only reach the mid to upper 20s across the Mid State, so some icy patches will remain along and north of I-40. Northwest winds will continue in the 10-20 mph range today, so wind chills will be in the single digits this morning and teens in the afternoon. For tonight, the approaching Arctic high pressure will become centered over the Ohio Valley, extending southward across TN. This will bring clearing skies with lows mainly in the teens, except single digits for the areas with snow cover. Wind chills will be in the singles. On Sunday, there will be more sunshine, but temperatures will recover only into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Lows Sunday night will be around 20 with partly cloudy skies. For Monday (Martin Luther King Jr. Day) a brief warmup will occur as south winds develop ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs will reach the upper 30s to lower 40s. Clouds will increase through the day, with a chance for afternoon rain or snow showers over our northwest counties. Monday night into Tuesday, a cold front / clipper system will bring another strong shot of frigid air, along with a period of wintry wx. Snow pops will be increased to likely for most of the area as the major operational models are in good agreement indicating almost all snow for precip type, with potential accumulations in the one half to 2 inch range. If we do indeed get a fresh coating of snow Monday night through Tuesday morning, it would help bring what may be the coldest day or 2 of winter so far. Highs Tuesday are only expected to reach the teens. Lows Tuesday will drop to the single digits as skies clear out, but snow cover could allow lows to plummet into the single digits below zero. Wednesday will bring highs only in the lower 20s, but perhaps teens again if there is any snow on the ground. Looking ahead, there will be a warmup late week as the upper air pattern becomes less amplified and more wavy. Temps could push toward 60 next Saturday, before crashing down again with the next cold shot a day or 2 later. Indices such as the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are trending downward for late January, indicating at least the potential for continuing cold air outbreaks. It looks like we could have a lot of winter to deal with yet. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OHX&issuedby=OHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 https://www.newsmax.com/headline/dark-winter-cold-global-cooling/2014/11/16/id/607672/ http://shewasabird.blogspot.com/2013/05/photo-friday-frozen-cumberland-river.html Great find. The Euro missed the strength of the upcoming/current trough. It has been pretty solid w the 500 pattern placement of ridges and troughs but has missed the strength of the cold at times. Yeah, I do think the teleconnections have a chance to line-up pretty well by the end of the month. That would fit pretty well with a an early Feb cool down. Definitely one of the reasons that I like the weather is trying to learn and figure out how things fit together...and we do have some things that might battle the warm signal during that time frame. It is likely that the latest warmup reset the timing of the northern and southern systems. Honestly, it was nice to have warm days this week. LOL. This morning was a shock! Pretty awesome front last night as well. Often, the only times that I hear that roar is high up in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Yes it needs to be high ratio with a decent dendrite growth zone. I want fluffy powder. Crap dendrites are subject to all of Shawn's concerns. Pixie dust sux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 The models look decent for Central-South Arkansas, What are your guy's thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 If you live in an area that gets NW flow snow, it's often dry/high ratio fluff. I can get an inch and it will burn away in the sun even in low 20s in just a short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Will (little rock) said: The models look decent for Central-South Arkansas, What are your guy's thoughts? It's according to which model is right, GFS and you're looking at an inch or so. Euro and you're probably doing a lot better. The main difference between the two is the speed of the front. The Euro is slower and it lets more moisture return across the entire area from Eastern Texas all the was to SWVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 In what is becoming a theme it seems, the Euro steps towards the GFS and is much drier than in prior days for next week. We from consistently showing .25-.4 across the area to .10-.20 across the area for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, John1122 said: In what is becoming a theme it seems, the Euro steps towards the GFS and is much drier than in prior days for next week. We from consistently showing .25-.4 across the area to .10-.20 across the area for Tuesday. If we can at least keep .10 to .20, and score 20-1 ratios thats still a good 2" to 4" event for most. We still have a couple days of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Hey, weathertree. The 12z Euro is putting a serious dent in my warm-up at d9-10. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 31 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: If we can at least keep .10 to .20, and score 20-1 ratios thats still a good 2" to 4" event for most. We still have a couple days of model runs. I hope we can get high ratios, it's tough to get 20:1. The GFS puts my area at 17:1 and the central valley at 13:1 for the event. Ratio adjusted the GFS puts down about 1-2 max north of 40 from Memphis to Knoxville roughly. Some 3 inch dollops in favored spots. It may be slightly drier than the 12z Euro but by no more than a few hundredths of an inch. It's all about speed and having time to transport energy. The Euro was allowing that to happen and it lost it. The NAM shows a little more juice but it's the NAM and that's a bias with it, especially at longer range. I'm going to really hope for a 2-4 inch type event but expect a 1-2 type and feel lucky if that comes to pass with how everything is busting for my area this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Hey, weathertree. The 12z Euro is putting a serious dent in my warm-up at d9-10. LOL. Let me take a look; this season has got me all off; it is backwards, we are looking for warm and have cold. We usually have warm and are looking for cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Hey, weathertree. The 12z Euro is putting a serious dent in my warm-up at d9-10. LOL. Hard for me too tell. I dont have access to any pay sites anymore only thing I can access ends on 01/22/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: Hard for me too tell. I dont have access to any pay sites anymore only thing I can access ends on 01/22/18 Weather.us is the place for the Euro if you aren't paying. What he's referring to is the entire country looks to be frigid at day 10. Freezing temps to the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, John1122 said: Weather.us is the place for the Euro if you aren't paying. What he's referring to is the entire country looks to be frigid at day 10. Freezing temps to the Gulf. Get out of town, let me take a look. Thanks for the link also. But if we have everything pushed so far south, then we are back where we were a couple weeks ago, cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 It might not be right, but the 12z Euro extended is a cold look.. it isn't a cold and dry look, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, John1122 said: Weather.us is the place for the Euro if you aren't paying. What he's referring to is the entire country looks to be frigid at day 10. Freezing temps to the Gulf. Looks like there is an I-40 special in there too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 NAM is just super juiced for the South Eastern areas with the Tuesday event. 3-6 inches from Chattanooga to Gatlinburg and still snowing along the NC border counties. Keep in mind, it's the NAM at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 MRX is not impressed at all about the snow totals for the Thurs. system Snow totals from Tuesday into Tuesday night look to be around half an inch for most locations, including the East TN Valley. Portions of the Cumberland Plateau, SWVA, and the higher terrain of our eastern mountains could see up to 1 to 1.5 inches. These totals aren`t that impressive but seeing that this system moves through during the day there could be some travel issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Somewhere in Chattanooga, Jeff is laughing...... well played NAM, well played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 25 minutes ago, bearman said: MRX is not impressed at all about the snow totals for the Thurs. system Snow totals from Tuesday into Tuesday night look to be around half an inch for most locations, including the East TN Valley. Portions of the Cumberland Plateau, SWVA, and the higher terrain of our eastern mountains could see up to 1 to 1.5 inches. These totals aren`t that impressive but seeing that this system moves through during the day there could be some travel issues. They must have seen the 18Z GFS. It looks terrible if you like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 The 18z NAM really digs the trough from Canada further west than previous runs (similar to recent Euro runs) and turns the flow straight from the Gulf. I don’t think the NAM is overamped at all if the depiction at 500mb is correct. GFS and most models don’t dig the shortwave as far to the Southwest. It seems the NAM and Euro could be sniffing this one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, 1234snow said: The 18z NAM really digs the trough from Canada further west than previous runs (similar to recent Euro runs) and turns the flow straight from the Gulf. I don’t think the NAM is overamped at all if the depiction at 500mb is correct. GFS and most models don’t dig the shortwave as far to the Southwest. It seems the NAM and Euro could be sniffing this one out. I sure hope the NAM and Euro are on to something. It is a little concerning the the Euro at 12Z was a tad drier than previously. On another note, I don’t even know why I bother with the GFS as bad as it is this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Jed33 said: They must have seen the 18Z GFS. It looks terrible if you like snow. Yeah, that was it's driest run yet. Gotta love how it snows north of here, northwest of here, West of here, southwest of here, and east and northeast of here. Almost in every direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: Yeah, that was it's driest run yet. Gotta love how it snows north of here, northwest of here, West of here, southwest of here, and east and northeast of here. Almost in every direction. GFS is pretty balmy in the long range as well; not sure if that is correct, seems like I heard that the NAO was going negative end of month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Does the Tuesday event have enough cred to have its own thread? Or is it too early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Robert of WxSouth is calling for a light event at this point. Hoping we get more moisture to tap from the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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