AMZ8990 Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The trough/ridge configuration is trending flatter...that is not allowing any storms to dig and form a storm here...now, at some point if it trends flat enough it will allow storms to track further north as sliders IMO. The track will shift north. The 6z GFS was a good example...the very first wave was further north. That is not a good setup for the NE...but if it gets flat enough it could help us. Right now it is in between being not sharp enough and not flat enough...thus, the dry look. I suspect if the ridge and trough continue to flatten to more of a flatter trough, we will see future runs slide along it. Even the NAM has began building snow back in the TX Panhandle over several runs...it is there between hours 33-36. To me that is a sign of a weaker trough/ridge configuration. Prob won’t help w the first storm but it might w subsequent storms. Isnt snow in the Texas panhandle a good look though overall. I know a lot of storms in the past have started out there then worked their way into ARK, TN, MS, ETC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 Seems like when I was a kid, If it snowed into Dallas up to Amarillo then that was usually a good sign for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, AMZ8990 said: Isnt snow in the Texas panhandle a good look though overall. I know a lot of storms in the past have started out there then worked their way into ARK, TN, MS, ETC. For sure. The models have to run on a razor’s edge to be bone dry here. We average 40+ inches per year of rain in my area. It may not like to snow...but it does like to rain. So, a flatter ridge can just give us dry, NW flow...but if it gets too flat, then sliders are in play. The first system will be a good test. It will show us the bias issues w each model. I just have my doubts that the models can balance the pattern well enough to keep it totally dry, even w no clippers. Right now, again, the trends are not good...but two days ago they were can’t miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The 12z NAM at 84(grain of salt) does show a much further north solution than the Euro. It could be overamped which is its bias....but it has an overall track north of some of the globals throughout its run. It did much better w yesterday’s mix than the global models. The big thing is to start watching it for trends. It does have ice for the mid-South at 84. Does 18z trend north, south, faster or slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z NAM at 84(grain of salt) does show a much further north solution than the Euro. It could be overamped which is its bias....but it has an overall track north of some of the globals throughout its run. It did much better w yesterday’s mix than the global models. The big thing is to start watching it for trends. It does have ice for the mid-South at 84. Does 18z trend north, south, faster or slower? That's a step in the right direction then, I reckon. I know we want to see a northern trend but Do we want the 18z to slow down or speed up?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said: Seems like when I was a kid, If it snowed into Dallas up to Amarillo then that was usually a good sign for us. Agreed, That's what I always kept an eye on, I guess it's a question of how strong this system will be and if the moisture can overcome those brutal dewpoints! 1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said: Seems like when I was a kid, If it snowed into Dallas up to Amarillo then that was usually a good sign for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Swing and a miss on the GFS. Coastal ice event. We live in strange times it would seem. I still wouldn't be surprised to see the far southern and eastern areas come back in play over the next 24-48 hours. Probably going to have a tough time getting back for the rest of us. In 9 out of 10 years I'd feel pretty comfortable with the GFS being so suppressed but this may be that odd year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: Swing and a miss on the GFS. Coastal ice event. We live in strange times it would seem. I still wouldn't be surprised to see the far southern and eastern areas come back in play over the next 24-48 hours. Probably going to have a tough time getting back for the rest of us. In 9 out of 10 years I'd feel pretty comfortable with the GFS being so suppressed but this may be that odd year. We need a NW Trend in a bad way, do you think there would be a scenario that we might get that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, Kasper said: We need a NW Trend in a bad way, do you think there would be a scenario that we might get that? I expect there will be some NW correction but I don't know how much or if it will be enough. The Canadian is so suppressed only deep south Georgia sees anything frozen, otherwise the storm scoots out to sea off central Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The New Years Day system is also super suppressed. There's a decent shot we may totally waste the cold air and have nothing but dry conditions. Reminds me of a stretch in January 2005 where we had two weeks of cold and only managed a dusting of snow from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 It's so cold the GFS is going to spit out highs in the 10s for a lot of us on New Years Day with no snow cover. That's almost impossible, at 1 pm on the 1st it has my temperature at 14 with a 1058 high pressing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Most of the forum area struggles to get to .05-.10 of precip over the next week. No NW flow, no return moisture from the GoM, nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Have to think the models stop the southern jog and come back. How far? Who knows. All systems are now suppressed inside of d10. The models finally see the big highs. Those 1058 highs mean business. Now, IMO watch for one of these systems to be much stronger than modeled. I still think the models are off simply because they have flip flopped so much. Though they seem to like the suppression flavor of the month now. Definitely some Grinch runs since 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: Most of the forum area struggles to get to .05-.10 of precip over the next week. No NW flow, no return moisture from the GoM, nothing. For sure. And that is precisely why I think they are wrong. Either they have clippers or they have systems that tap the GOM. It is rare to see a pattern so dry. It happens for sure...and has happened before. But to me that is a red flag that their are problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 And the one thing I might add...IMO the models have been abysmal. Think how cold it is today and what they had a week ago. I highly doubt they have the pattern even remotely right, even in the mid range. I am thankful for the cold. Again, watch the short range models for trends. Also, remember how poorly they did w the past snow in the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 17 minutes ago, John1122 said: It's so cold the GFS is going to spit out highs in the 10s for a lot of us on New Years Day with no snow cover. That's almost impossible, at 1 pm on the 1st it has my temperature at 14 with a 1058 high pressing down. I think something is off with modeling that is, very rare to get that cold with no Snow cover, I think we still get some action in that southern stream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 26 minutes ago, John1122 said: The New Years Day system is also super suppressed. There's a decent shot we may totally waste the cold air and have nothing but dry conditions. Reminds me of a stretch in January 2005 where we had two weeks of cold and only managed a dusting of snow from it. Parts of the area had plenty of mostly dry cold in the "great" winters of 2014 and 2015. The midsouth has been especially good at topping out with dustings and flizzards during recent cold outbreaks. In Jan 2014 OHX was -5.3 for the month with a whopping 0.4" of snow. February of 2015 was -9.2 with only 2.1" of snow. I remember a lot of . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 CMC is basically in agreement with GFS, system gets suppressed and pushed out to sea, All hail the NAVGEM, or better runs overnight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, Coach B said: Parts of the area had plenty of mostly dry cold in the "great" winters of 2014 and 2015. The midsouth has been especially good at topping out with dustings and flizzards during recent cold outbreaks. In Jan 2014 OHX was -5.3 for the month with a whopping 0.4" of snow. February of 2015 was -9.2 with only 2.1" of snow. I remember a lot of . I was thinking that there were some big rainers in Jan 2014 but that it didn't snow a lot and that the cold would come in 2-3 day increments. I believe February 2015 also had plenty of precip but that it was in the form of ice and rain instead of snow in the Nashville area. Winter is a rainy time here, especially December. Carvers pointed out that he gets 47 inches of rain a year and he lives in one of the driest areas of the forum. I get 60 inches a year. To go 10 days without any notable precip in winter is uncommon here. That's what the models are currently advertising though. In 2005 it went from January 14th to the 27th in Nashville and .08 precip fell. That was the dry stretch I was referring to, it was similarly dry here. We had some cold temps but only got a heavy dusting of snow from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 28 minutes ago, John1122 said: In 2005 it went from January 14th to the 27th in Nashville and .08 precip fell. That was the dry stretch I was referring to, it was similarly dry here. We had some cold temps but only got a heavy dusting of snow from it. January 2010 was a bad one as well. The first two weeks of the month was waaay below normal with only .03" of precip. I think OHX did get the obligatory half inch in there somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 GEFS is only slightly more robust with precip through New Years, with a max of .2-.3 falling over the next week in the forum area. Both moisten up nicely shortly after due to a series of cutters which wouldn't surprise me in the least. Warm up and rain is a winter pattern we've seen many times in the 2000s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Here is a trend....it may or may not have time to make a difference. The RGEM and NAM have been creeping north with the first wave and dampening the second. That may be suppressing the second wave, but it may be the best chance for someone in the forum area to see some precip. The precip has now creeped into northern MS and AL before sliding off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Take hour 30 on the RGEM at Tropical Tidbits and toggle that hour back in time by switching to previous runs. Watch the precip trend north. It may not help MBY...but it could have enough to get to southern areas of the forum if it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The Euro has 3 major winter events along either the Deep South, Gulf Coast or way down the SE coast over the next 10 days. I'd guess there's about a .001 percent chance of that actually happening in a 100 year period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Take hour 30 on the RGEM at Tropical Tidbits and toggle that hour back in time by switching to previous runs. Watch the precip trend north. It may not help MBY...but it could have enough to get to southern areas of the forum if it continues. we will take what we can get at this point. Sooner or later one of these storms has gotta have us in the crosshairs instead of the Deep South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 18z GFS is looking a lot better for the New Year's Day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, Wurbus said: 18z GFS is looking a lot better for the New Year's Day storm. Looks great for New Years, let's hope it doesn't start with the suppression on the next few runs! That Thursday system is basically non existent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Merry Christmas for Happy New Year from the Happy Hour run? I just looked at the 18z GFS....these systems are moving so fast, that is why the models are struggling. It is also the models underestimating or overestimating the cold. Combine those two variables and massive numbers of outcomes are possible. The second wave that is getting suppressed more and more misses the northern stream energy. I can't remember...might be the southern stream energy is now faster? or the northern stream energy is slower? Anyway, this run that third wave catches the southern wave. If there is no snow on the ground, the Arctic boundary will be north IMO and mess w the suppression of systems. Anyway...the graphic that wurbus posted of the 18z is how I would expect these systems to look. The 18z also has a clipper right before the one we are discussing. That is more reasonable in its look. Is it right? No idea. Looking forward to the 0z run. At some point, there has to be an Easter egg...eh, or Christmas ornament. Much better than the Ghost of Midnight Past runs from earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 It’s a good start. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 There may be hope yet, the CMC and GFS are similar on the New Year's Day storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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