Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

Hoosier

Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

Recommended Posts

On 2/20/2018 at 7:42 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

That's because the upcoming -NAO and -AO strongly coincides with big time Nor'Easters. The analogs are not as strong for the GL section. Their hype has some merit. 

 

This will be a rather interesting scenario. This highly negative NAO (possibly record-breaking, if you look at Mike Ventrice's twitter feed ??) will be an east-based negative NAO and the East Coast will have above normal heights and temperatures while the West will be cold. On the topic of Europe, this winter has featured a generally positive NAO and Europe has already seen above normal snow this winter. Europe will get a cold wave and snow in the upcoming days. [NAO index picture is from NOAA ESRL-PSD, not CPC.]

dsiYQXf.png

 

Ik6mKHK.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On February 21, 2018 at 5:19 PM, Angrysummons said:

This is just lol model output in 168-240 hours. Not even worth looking at.

I think we can all expect this long range model output to verify this time. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Baum said:

I think we can all expect this long range model output to verify this time. 

In terms of how the upstream blocking develops, sure. In terms of results downstream in your back yard, they are spinning wheels.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, GreenBo said:

No mention of the blizzard on the 12z GFS. 

 

992mb blows up around Erie PA. Dream scenarios for us SeMI-ganders. 

Why would anyone comment about something that far out on the models? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS has consistently shown a big storm wrapping up over Iowa on Thursday, March 1st.  The other models have been in and out with the storm.  However, all the models this morning are wrapping up a biggie.  It's too bad there couldn't be more cold air available.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS has consistently shown a big storm wrapping up over Iowa on Thursday, March 1st.  The other models have been in and out with the storm.  However, all the models this morning are wrapping up a biggie.  It's too bad there couldn't be more cold air available.

Yeah, no front end cold.  Any changeover to snow will have to be on the backside.

ecmwf_T850_us_6.thumb.png.bf78afb5202652e98509bf91c5502e39.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, no front end cold.  Any changeover to snow will have to be on the backside.

ecmwf_T850_us_6.thumb.png.bf78afb5202652e98509bf91c5502e39.png

No cold air to be found on this side of the planet. Better luck next winter I guess. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

These type of storms create thier own cold air. As climo might conclude based on these type of " bowling ball" setups someone will get 10" plus in the sub-forum. One of my favorite storms was a forecasted 1-3" in early March with this type of setup that put down 8"+ with thunder perhaps circa '93-'94. Someone else can verify. Here's hoping Angry is pants-less come Friday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Baum said:

These type of storms create thier own cold air. As climo might conclude based on these type of " bowling ball" setups someone will get 10" plus in the sub-forum. One of my favorite storms was a forecasted 1-3" in early March with this type of setup that put down 8"+ with thunder perhaps circa '93-'94. Someone else can verify. Here's hoping Angry is pants-less come Friday.

Skeptical. The pattern has not been productive at all over the past several years...decade...in "creating cold air" in the Great Lakes region. I'm about to throw in the towel on this winter.

I sure wish you would be right, but the odds have certainly been against over the past several years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Baum said:

These type of storms create thier own cold air. As climo might conclude based on these type of " bowling ball" setups someone will get 10" plus in the sub-forum. One of my favorite storms was a forecasted 1-3" in early March with this type of setup that put down 8"+ with thunder perhaps circa '93-'94. Someone else can verify. Here's hoping Angry is pants-less come Friday.

Euro does this exact thing for MI on the 00z run.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 18Z GFS run is one of the best I have seen in weeks for several wintry opportunities in the long range. Nothing huge, because as has been the case for years, the flow is soooooo fast. But, some opportunities.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×