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Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco


Hoosier

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12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I will welcome an eastern trough. Everytime we hear of suppression worries, snow still flies. If DTW gets 5.8" more of snow this season, it will crack into the top 20 snowiest winters. If that happens, 7 of the top 20 snowiest winters would be since 2003, and 5 of the top 20 since 2008! Records go to 1880.

I don't know what it is, but this winter just has not impressed me one bit. I am at 95 inches for the season, but most of it has been fluff that vanishes during the many thaws we have had. It would be nice to get a couple of systems coming from the SW with cold air entrenched. Is that too much to ask for in the Great Lakes region?!? Rhetorical question.... :P

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11 minutes ago, blackrock said:

I don't know what it is, but this winter just has not impressed me one bit. I am at 95 inches for the season, but most of it has been fluff that vanishes during the many thaws we have had. It would be nice to get a couple of systems coming from the SW with cold air entrenched. Is that too much to ask for in the Great Lakes region?!? Rhetorical question.... :P

I don't care where our snow comes from haha...I just like snow. This has been a very good winter. It doesn't hold a candle to 2013-14, but nothing does.

 

Much of our snow has been powder. A bit of fluff, and a bit of wet snow, but mostly powder. So dry snow but not airy fluff that settles super fast.

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LMAO @ the difference between the op runs of the GFS and Euro regarding the weekend system.  The GFS has been pretty robust with this thing the past several runs, and now has it down to 969mb by 12z Sunday.  The Euro has it at just 1000mb at the same time frame.  Wonder which model will win this battle? :popcorn:

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

LMAO @ the difference between the op runs of the GFS and Euro regarding the weekend system.  The GFS has been pretty robust with this thing the past several runs, and now has it down to 969mb by 12z Sunday.  The Euro has it at just 1000mb at the same time frame.  Wonder which model will win this battle? :popcorn:

It won't make any difference for our area.  Expect rain.  Systems coming from the sw rarely produce good snow here.  Maybe this is just the new normal as the climate warms.

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23 hours ago, blackrock said:

GFS has been doing some goofy things in the long range (surprise surprise!). Once the colder air starts to sink in again next week, any low pressure moving in just gets shredded apart on the GFS. I guess that's not too goofy.....

If that insane block verifies in 10 days and the pv splits apart, things could get interesting with slow moving bowling balls trapped under the block.   Eastcoasters are all crowing about a huge noreaster, JB and DT are bringing up March '62 which apparently had a blockbuster noreaster.   

Personally I'm going with a November 1950 Appalachian bomb redux.  :ph34r:

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10 minutes ago, buckeye said:

If that insane block verifies in 10 days and the pv splits apart, things could get interesting with slow moving bowling balls trapped under the block.   Eastcoasters are all crowing about a huge noreaster, JB and DT are bringing up March '62 which apparently had a blockbuster noreaster.   

Personally I'm going with a November 1950 Appalachian bomb redux.  :ph34r:

Yeah, I've been checking out things on their forums and they are all VERY excited and proclaiming 100% likelihood of significant winter storms over there. Meanwhile, here in the Great Lakes sub-forum...nearly a mention of a flake. lol.... As some others were saying, we don't have as many hardcore winter people on here. Perhaps we just have more realists... :P I, however, am ALWAYS rooting for winter!

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18 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Yeah, I've been checking out things on their forums and they are all VERY excited and proclaiming 100% likelihood of significant winter storms over there. Meanwhile, here in the Great Lakes sub-forum...nearly a mention of a flake. lol.... As some others were saying, we don't have as many hardcore winter people on here. Perhaps we just have more realists... :P I, however, am ALWAYS rooting for winter!

That's because the upcoming -NAO and -AO strongly coincides with big time Nor'Easters. The analogs are not as strong for the GL section. Their hype has some merit. 

ao.sprd2.gif

 

nao.sprd2.gif

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That's because the upcoming -NAO is strongly and -AO strongly coincides with big time Nor'Easters. The analogs are not as strong for the GL section. Their hype has some merit. 

ao.sprd2.gif

 

nao.sprd2.gif

Oh, I know. No surprise things don't look at good for the Great Lakes... Yawn. Had an interview via Skype with the place in Chautauqua County last night. Have one next week in Lowville via Zoom. :)

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Spring is knocking on the sub forums doorstep. Looking at new charts shows "springs progression" is into Kentucky which is about 20 days ahead of normal. Should be interesting to see how far it advances in the next 7-10 days during this warm spell. I posted the February 20th map that shows it further into Kentucky, but the default map that keeps showing up is from yesterday. six-leaf-index-anomaly.png

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33 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Yeah, I've been checking out things on their forums and they are all VERY excited and proclaiming 100% likelihood of significant winter storms over there. Meanwhile, here in the Great Lakes sub-forum...nearly a mention of a flake. lol.... As some others were saying, we don't have as many hardcore winter people on here. Perhaps we just have more realists... :P I, however, am ALWAYS rooting for winter!

 I don't spend as much time chasing Winter as I do enjoying it when it's here. Now that we're on an unfortunate break that's when I have time to look ahead. I really don't understand indices, a lot of the hype, etc, all I know is I'm sure we have more snow to come.  If it's going to get cold, suppression be dammed, we will get more snow here. And especially with the hot hand we've had this winter, I am pretty sure winter isn't done.

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3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I don't spend as much time chasing Winter as I do enjoying it when it's here. Now that we're on an unfortunate break that's when I have time to look ahead. I really don't understand indices, a lot of the hype, etc, all I know is I'm sure we have more snow to come.  If it's going to get cold, suppression be dammed, we will get more snow here. And especially with the hot hand we've had this winter, I am pretty sure winter isn't done.

I think we'll have to continue relying on clippers if we're going to get much snow in March. We just can't get the southern and northern jets to cooperate here...for several years now. I wonder how common a clipper pattern is during the month of March? Like I said yesterday, we definitely wouldn't retain the fluff snow in the March sunshine.

Snow piles still all over the place around here and along driveways. I even have a patch of snow that survived in my backyard. It is at the bottom of a slight hill in deep shade...and is always the last to lose its snow. Maybe I should go roll around in it? Ha!

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5 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It won't make any difference for our area.  Expect rain.  Systems coming from the sw rarely produce good snow here.  Maybe this is just the new normal as the climate warms.

Looks like we should be good for a period of rain, followed by some wind-driven flurries on the backside. 

For snowfall I think hybrid type clippers are our best bet for heavy snowfall.  Cutters are the ultimate prize for snowfall, but landing one is something that doesn't happen for several seasons sometimes.

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9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That's because the upcoming -NAO and -AO strongly coincides with big time Nor'Easters. The analogs are not as strong for the GL section. Their hype has some merit. 

 

 

 

On the other hand has there ever been an upcoming pattern change to colder weather or a long range storm for that matter, that wasn't hyped in the MA forum as potential?   The drool buckets were overflowing back in early December with talk of the best upcoming pattern for snowstorms in years.  Other than the usual default Boston storm, not much happened.  

They do have a point though.  After all, almost every storm has to eventually end up on the east coast somewhere....

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3 hours ago, buckeye said:

On the other hand has there ever been an upcoming pattern change to colder weather or a long range storm for that matter, that wasn't hyped in the MA forum as potential?   The drool buckets were overflowing back in early December with talk of the best upcoming pattern for snowstorms in years.  Other than the usual default Boston storm, not much happened.  

They do have a point though.  After all, almost every storm has to eventually end up on the east coast somewhere....

....or they come to the Midwest to die...... :lol:

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The 12z operational GFS shows how the very strongly negative NAO developing can benefit parts of the sub for snow/wintry threats at the end of Feb into the first half of March. This is just for demonstration purposes, but next Wednesday into Thursday what would've been a warm cutter and congrats MSP gets forced east and then southeast under the block. It then becomes a big snowstorm for eastern IA, NW and far northern IL, southern WI and of course lower MI. There's another example of similar behavior later in the run.

The automatic assumption seems to be congrats East Coast, but we're not going to a strongly positive PNA that would be a drier look here. All the shortwaves coming ashore on the west coast have to go somewhere before affecting the east. It may be that the best true big dog potential is for the east but I remain fairly optimistic for snow chances, some of which could be moderate to significant, in portions of the sub while the -NAO lasts. Looking back to more recent history of strong -NAO in March coming out of Niña or cold neutral met winters, there's some good examples of snowy Marches, including March 1999 (18.2" at ORD) and March 2013 (10.4" at ORD and a very near miss south of central IL big dog late that month). a4ca61e2c8196643c09818fd44abd519.gif

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

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11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 12z operational GFS shows how the very strongly negative NAO developing can benefit parts of the sub for snow/wintry threats at the end of Feb into the first half of March. This is just for demonstration purposes, but next Wednesday into Thursday what would've been a warm cutter and congrats MSP gets forced east and then southeast under the block. It then becomes a big snowstorm for eastern IA, NW and far northern IL, southern WI and of course lower MI. There's another example of similar behavior later in the run.

The automatic assumption seems to be congrats East Coast, but we're not going to a strongly positive PNA that would be a drier look here. All the shortwaves coming ashore on the west coast have to go somewhere before affecting the east. It may be that the best true big dog potential is for the east but I remain fairly optimistic for snow chances, some of which could be moderate to significant, in portions of the sub while the -NAO lasts. Looking back to more recent history of strong -NAO in March coming out of Niña or cold neutral met winters, there's some good examples of snowy Marches, including March 1999 (18.2" at ORD) and March 2013 (10.4" at ORD and a very near miss south of central IL big dog late that month).

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. What I have noticed though...is it seems like the systems are progged to fizzle as they move east. Some previous runs have shown this occurring before the systems even get to the Great Lakes region. The 12Z GFS shows this happening more as it goes to the east coast. What is the main component causing this "shredder look"?

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 12z operational GFS shows how the very strongly negative NAO developing can benefit parts of the sub for snow/wintry threats at the end of Feb into the first half of March. This is just for demonstration purposes, but next Wednesday into Thursday what would've been a warm cutter and congrats MSP gets forced east and then southeast under the block. It then becomes a big snowstorm for eastern IA, NW and far northern IL, southern WI and of course lower MI. There's another example of similar behavior later in the run.

The 12z Euro has the same look, just with the main dump of snow farther nw.

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19 hours ago, blackrock said:

I think we'll have to continue relying on clippers if we're going to get much snow in March. We just can't get the southern and northern jets to cooperate here...for several years now. I wonder how common a clipper pattern is during the month of March? Like I said yesterday, we definitely wouldn't retain the fluff snow in the March sunshine.

Snow piles still all over the place around here and along driveways. I even have a patch of snow that survived in my backyard. It is at the bottom of a slight hill in deep shade...and is always the last to lose its snow. Maybe I should go roll around in it? Ha!

Just the isolated pile in residential areas left here. Most parking lots still have plowed piles though. Dewpoints were in the 50s for 36 hours.

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7 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 12z operational GFS shows how the very strongly negative NAO developing can benefit parts of the sub for snow/wintry threats at the end of Feb into the first half of March. This is just for demonstration purposes, but next Wednesday into Thursday what would've been a warm cutter and congrats MSP gets forced east and then southeast under the block. It then becomes a big snowstorm for eastern IA, NW and far northern IL, southern WI and of course lower MI. There's another example of similar behavior later in the run.

The automatic assumption seems to be congrats East Coast, but we're not going to a strongly positive PNA that would be a drier look here. All the shortwaves coming ashore on the west coast have to go somewhere before affecting the east. It may be that the best true big dog potential is for the east but I remain fairly optimistic for snow chances, some of which could be moderate to significant, in portions of the sub while the -NAO lasts. Looking back to more recent history of strong -NAO in March coming out of Niña or cold neutral met winters, there's some good examples of snowy Marches, including March 1999 (18.2" at ORD) and March 2013 (10.4" at ORD and a very near miss south of central IL big dog late that month). a4ca61e2c8196643c09818fd44abd519.gif

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

Good discussion. Let's see what March has up her sleeve!

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On 2/20/2018 at 9:42 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

That's because the upcoming -NAO and -AO strongly coincides with big time Nor'Easters. The analogs are not as strong for the GL section. Their hype has some merit. 

ao.sprd2.gif

 

nao.sprd2.gif

Have to admit I would have preferred a March 1984 redux over March 1962. This winter has been good up here. The only thing that's been missing for my region is an 8" + storm. Hopefully March can deliver.

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8 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Have to admit I would have preferred a March 1984 redux over March 1962. This winter has been good up here. The only thing that's been missing for my region is an 8" + storm. Hopefully March can deliver.

Absolutely hideous pattern shaping up for us. It might be tough for us even to scrape up a few tenths of an inch of snow. And that's not hyperbole.

Nice kick in the pants to endure the warm-up and the snow-melt only to have to face crippling suppression once it's over.

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3 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Absolutely hideous pattern shaping up for us. It might be tough for us even to scrape up a few tenths of an inch of snow. And that's not hyperbole.

Nice kick in the pants to endure the warm-up and the snow-melt only to have to face crippling suppression once it's over.

What a joke of a winter, lol. Now you might say, "but we got ~36.0" so far", however its literally all been nickle and dime events. And then we finally get a SE Ridge, but it turns out to be a monster, record-breaking one instead. And to make it worse, we finally get some NAO cooperation, but it could be a very strong WB -NAO which has shades of 09-10 all over again. Just a big fat slap in the face. Despite having the Pacific ridge anchored a bit further west allowing for a more neutral to -PNA, it may not counteract the strong block across Greenland to provide a more northerly track. With that being said, I'm not wholly optimistic moving forward with the upcoming pattern for our sub-forum. 

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