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Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco


Hoosier

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39 minutes ago, OHweather said:

It's been amusing to watch the early February potential gradually trend towards a regular FROPA. 

Yep quite deflating though not as bad as earlier in the month. A bad trend though for exciting weather and the drought to have glorified FROPAs.

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4 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

Any guess when the GFS capitulates? Looks like a farther west version of the modest cold shot that occurred pre-Christmas. I would like to know what we did to the weather gods to make them so angry.

Capitulate to what?  The euro?  Sorry but the gfs did better on the last event than the almighty euro at long range....that being said, every model has been a joke outside of 72hrs anyways.   

If you mean capitulate to the seasonal trend of further southeast and weaker....then I agree that's a better point to make.

 

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13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It's an interesting look on models and ensembles in the long-range with an active pattern and very cold north and very warm south. That could potentially work out very well in the southern Lakes. But of course, we know how the models are...

Problem is, this "active pattern" has always been modeled this winter beyond 7 days but as we got closer 85% of the storms turned out to be dud's or frontal passages, lol. I wouldn't hold my breath for anything at this point in time. To much variability and we have yet to see any moisture laden system actually come to fruition. For example, a couple of days ago the models had a somewhat decent storm signal for the 28th-30th, but that's become nothing more than a weak frontal passage. And now this early February event is starting to wane as well. Euro had virtually nothing, lol. 

 

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45 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Problem is, this "active pattern" has always been modeled this winter beyond 7 days but as we got closer 85% of the storms turned out to be dud's or frontal passages, lol. I wouldn't hold my breath for anything at this point in time. To much variability and we have yet to see any moisture laden system actually come to fruition. For example, a couple of days ago the models had a somewhat decent storm signal for the 28th-30th, but that's become nothing more than a weak frontal passage. And now this early February event is starting to wane as well. Euro had virtually nothing, lol. 

 

Meh. I don't recall that type of look. No arguments from me on how bad the models are. I just commented because its an interesting look and i know we have a lot here who like to peak at fantasy range. It has been actually fairly active in terms of unsettled weather but it's been a dry active and with virtually no southern stream action, precip totals are way below what you would expect in a nina. 

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7 hours ago, Stebo said:

Yep quite deflating though not as bad as earlier in the month. A bad trend though for exciting weather and the drought to have glorified FROPAs.

I must admit, I do not recall many "glorified FROPAs" dropping 6-12" of snow on me.  Call it what you will, but I'd take it in a heartbeat.  

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Problem is, this "active pattern" has always been modeled this winter beyond 7 days but as we got closer 85% of the storms turned out to be dud's or frontal passages, lol. I wouldn't hold my breath for anything at this point in time. To much variability and we have yet to see any moisture laden system actually come to fruition. For example, a couple of days ago the models had a somewhat decent storm signal for the 28th-30th, but that's become nothing more than a weak frontal passage. And now this early February event is starting to wane as well. Euro had virtually nothing, lol.   

 

It's right to not get excited or too hopeful about anything yet because it's so far out. I've acknowledged being much too optimistic in previous occasions this winter, for instance for mid December and the late December-early January period.  

The key difference from what was being modeled for those periods and the current state of the models/ensembles for the medium-long range is that the tropical forcing via the MJO stands to actually benefit this time should what is being shown verifies. The ensembles were incorrect with the pattern for late December into January (GFS had a mega big dog for a few days) that should have occurred with the phase of the MJO (was a cold eastern troughing phase and ensembles were showing southeast ridge influence).

 

For the upcoming pattern, the placement of the significant -EPO ridge is forecast to be westward of previous occasions. The MJO during early Feb is forecast to be traveling through phase 7 with amplitude greater than 1 (variance on ensembles how strong the wave will be in phase 7). The two in concert should work to keep higher geopotential heights south and east instead of constant dry northwest flow or a crusher PV look.

 

I'm not gonna speculate as to whether a big moisture laden system will occur in the pattern being modeled, and certainly wouldn't rule one out. But we should at least have chances for more frequent moderate+ events, such as via overrunning. We'll see how things look as we get closer. Definitely need the more west based -EPO ridge to verify. 04fc66766ee2a6c0dec99db1d6b72678.jpg&key=d1dc18fb01a3f0d47253e6dc4d023c14fa9e4e47e9d5258dd43a0c2be5d127737cfc35922d124915fef9dcf01618cacb.jpg&key=97c7d446432e157f9472420cc6bed57641b7cb24cdf2bed8c56010035d3dc718ed032aa9b8f517c03e0760c1a9a45906.jpg&key=531280b3d3a51c90f915a7e84c388f8ff3dd51120b27e2683eaa1b2a5080c4b34c930c8af09cda9fe84b03c2eda943c8.jpg&key=6f1546196534cad7d0312439aba73128c2dcfa5e610381bba8c13cf424432d01

 

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

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Nice post RC and I tend to agree.  The models continue to show a stronger and slower translation through phase 7, which promotes a SE ridge lingering longer into February.  They also have the EPO ridge centered a bit west than both earlier in the winter and than what some of the earlier runs were hinting at for this period.  I'm now starting to think that it may be close to mid-month before we risk the cold becoming more suppressive...though I do think it still happens eventually when the MJO propigates farther east into phase 8, and given the amount of cold over Canada once that happens, some very impressive/potentially record cold especially across the northern tier still wouldn't surprise me...but a solid two week window to start the month with big cold diving into the north-central US and a SE ridge lingering, setting up a gradient across the Ohio Valley/southern Lakes, may be in the cards.  Whether or not we get enough STJ help for a bigger storm remains to be seen. 

As for the threat at the end of next week, I suppose the GFS, CMC, and good number of ensemble members still manage a pretty large swath of warning criteria snows across either the Ohio Valley or southern Great Lakes (a few EPS members even farther north)...so I definitely don't want to give up hope...though they're definitely doing it with a flatter shortwave/weaker storm (more of a prolonged overrunning event with some weak deformation snows developing over the east end of the area as the low finally starts intensifying), and given trends this winter there's still a lot of time to even lose that.  One way or another, the region needs precip. 

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22 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

Some thoughts from forecaster Bill McMillan from IndyWX who is bullish for the upcoming period...

http://indywx.com/2018/01/25/potential-on-the-table-for-a-spectacular-period-of-winter-weather/

 

  Lets hope they're right. They're gonna need a big dog to meet their initial call of 30" for IND.  I was puzzled to see mention of "the resistance of the eastern ridge".  I thought it had been a bit wimpy so far this winter but maybe I'm reading it wrong.  I'll lock that forecast in though :weenie:

Edit:  Thanks for the link!

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2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

....and then the euro craps the bed...:lol:

 

Was just wondering about the Euro on this. You know in years past we would just discount the GFS in this situation, but recently the Euro has been just as bad. I’m not saying GFS will end up being right, but it’ll be interesting to see how it all plays out.

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4 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

It's right to not get excited or too hopeful about anything yet because it's so far out. I've acknowledged being much too optimistic in previous occasions this winter, for instance for mid December and the late December-early January period.  

The key difference from what was being modeled for those periods and the current state of the models/ensembles for the medium-long range is that the tropical forcing via the MJO stands to actually benefit this time should what is being shown verifies. The ensembles were incorrect with the pattern for late December into January (GFS had a mega big dog for a few days) that should have occurred with the phase of the MJO (was a cold eastern troughing phase and ensembles were showing southeast ridge influence).

For the upcoming pattern, the placement of the significant -EPO ridge is forecast to be westward of previous occasions. The MJO during early Feb is forecast to be traveling through phase 7 with amplitude greater than 1 (variance on ensembles how strong the wave will be in phase 7). The two in concert should work to keep higher geopotential heights south and east instead of constant dry northwest flow or a crusher PV look.

I'm not gonna speculate as to whether a big moisture laden system will occur in the pattern being modeled, and certainly wouldn't rule one out. But we should at least have chances for more frequent moderate+ events, such as via overrunning. We'll see how things look as we get closer. Definitely need the more west based -EPO ridge to verify. 

 

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

 

I envy your optimism. :lol: Great points I agree. To much model discrepancy this winter. 

The MJO has definitely been a strong driver of the weather pattern this winter. When you look at the upper level analysis of this winter, its nearly identical to last year especially across the North Pacific (Aleutian or Alaska ridge). But other drivers such as the MJO and the PV (thanks to the QBO) have overwhelmed the Nina signal. Can't say for certain if the high-latitude blocking across the Pacific, that we've seen quite evidently in the last few years, can be attributed or have some linkage to climate change and/or the PDO. What do you think?

I still doubt the potential for a strong moisture-laden given the -EPO, but we'll see. I think Feb 5th - 12th is prime for a nice overrunning event or two. The signal is much stronger around that time-frame than say the early February event.  If we can't see a half decent system within the first 15 days of the month, then I don't know anymore. The overall drivers support a system, but the way things have been, I wouldn't be surprised if nothing comes out of it. 

Pretty stupid question, but would the current drought conditions across the southern plains and Midwest be playing a role in the lack of storm development? 

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56 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Wake me within 72 hours

Yup. I just don't care unless we're at least 3 days out. I think I get especially bitter because local socialmediarologists will share raw maps days leading up to an event, and then people ultimately blame US, the media, for a busted forecast we never gave. Gets old after the first one!

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1 hour ago, pondo1000 said:

Was just wondering about the Euro on this. You know in years past we would just discount the GFS in this situation, but recently the Euro has been just as bad. I’m not saying GFS will end up being right, but it’ll be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Absolutely, the old perception that you weigh the euro more is out the door.  It has been just as horrible as the rest of the models.  There was a time when you could take the euro to the bank inside of 96 hours, especially when it came to storms effecting our region...not this winter.

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13 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said:

Yup. I just don't care unless we're at least 3 days out. I think I get especially bitter because local socialmediarologists will share raw maps days leading up to an event, and then people ultimately blame US, the media, for a busted forecast we never gave. Gets old after the first one!

Lol. Did you coin that? it is a good one. You know that I completely agree with you. In the old days it seemed to be NWS and TV mets getting kicked for busting when it was the private forecasters doing the hyping. Nowadays, anyone can pull off a run of the GFS and post it on social media and the public goes gaga. The end result is the NWS and TV mets  (as well as your friendly neighborhood EMA Director) gets blamed for busting.

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I have a couple of examples on my home computer that I will post later of maps posted with the social media author claiming he was "not hyping a storm" yet throwing out maps with amounts and track 5 days ahead of time. Pure incompetence and a blow to the legitimacy of the meteorological community. (Can you tell that this subject gets me worked up?)

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58 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I envy your optimism. :lol: Great points I agree. To much model discrepancy this winter. 

The MJO has definitely been a strong driver of the weather pattern this winter. When you look at the upper level analysis of this winter, its nearly identical to last year especially across the North Pacific (Aleutian or Alaska ridge). But other drivers such as the MJO and the PV (thanks to the QBO) have overwhelmed the Nina signal. Can't say for certain if the high-latitude blocking across the Pacific, that we've seen quite evidently in the last few years, can be attributed or have some linkage to climate change and/or the PDO. What do you think?

I still doubt the potential for a strong moisture-laden given the -EPO, but we'll see. I think Feb 5th - 12th is prime for a nice overrunning event or two. The signal is much stronger around that time-frame than say the early February event.  If we can't see a half decent system within the first 15 days of the month, then I don't know anymore. The overall drivers support a system, but the way things have been, I wouldn't be surprised if nothing comes out of it. 

Pretty stupid question, but would the current drought conditions across the southern plains and Midwest be playing a role in the lack of storm development? 

I think the drought is more reflective of the pattern we've been in.  The feedback loop (the ol dry begets dry) can start to get out of control during the warmer months as evaporation rates increase.

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I almost started a new thread since I've already bantered enough here in the middle of a current serious discussion of the medium range, but since you guys mentioned it and it is a long range issue, there are some similarities here which may be relevant down the road. No, I'm not calling for another Morch, but will be interesting to watch.

 

WaterPNormMRCC.png

OND12PNormMRCC.png

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