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Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco


Hoosier

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3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

The almighty OZ (aka JB),  says Jan20 thru Feb 20 something.  If that were true I'd say lets just ride into Morch and never turn back til December '18.

Really? Yuck. But I meant regarding the mjo phase thing. I remember before someone said JB said January 20th February 5th would torch. Did he extend it? No matter, considering how so many places are so below normal for snow I just have to believe that there will be some big snowstorms before the season is over. The CFS does torch the next couple weeks but it has colder and very wet February & March. Shades of 2007-08 would be nice. We are only about 1/3 of the way through the snow season so far. With a good start here I don't want to peter out.

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5 hours ago, scud said:

Who's ready for some 60s to start February?

stddeviation.JPG

Looks like we best enjoy whatever father winter throws at us this next week because that rubber band that's been pulling all this unreal arctic air over us is about to snap hard.    JB sounded this morning as though this could be the end of winter once the pattern breaks.   The MJO is about to get lost and meander in 3 and 4 for quite awhile.   

Quite telling that he would risk kickstarting the subscription cancellations of thousands of defeated snow weenies...but sure enough it was in his voice even though he tried to muster up some 'ifs' and 'buts' about late FEB into March....not very convincingly.  

Would not be unheard of for winter weather to be done after what we just went through.   We saw this happen in '89-90 too.

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GFS has been giving a moderate signal for a sudden stratospheric warming in the 1.5-2wk range for a bit over two days now. While there's likely going to be a strong mediation of Arctic air toward the Siberian instead of Canadian side, I think there is a good chance for a -AO outbreak starting around the end of the month.

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16 minutes ago, buckeye said:

   We saw this happen in '89-90 too.

Yeah never forget that, driving home to Indiana from the Carolinas for Christmas I remember the digital bank signs in various towns in Ohio ranging from -15 to -25 if memory serves.  So bone chilling cold for the holidays followed by a very active svr wx season. Starting with March 13 1990 outbrk and going well into June.

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27 minutes ago, Nflow6 said:

Yeah never forget that, driving home to Indiana from the Carolinas for Christmas I remember the digital bank signs in various towns in Ohio ranging from -15 to -25 if memory serves.  So bone chilling cold for the holidays followed by a very active svr wx season. Starting with March 13 1990 outbrk and going well into June.

Wasn't '90 the Valentines Day ice storm in northern IL?

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2 hours ago, buckeye said:

Looks like we best enjoy whatever father winter throws at us this next week because that rubber band that's been pulling all this unreal arctic air over us is about to snap hard.    JB sounded this morning as though this could be the end of winter once the pattern breaks.   The MJO is about to get lost and meander in 3 and 4 for quite awhile.   

Quite telling that he would risk kickstarting the subscription cancellations of thousands of defeated snow weenies...but sure enough it was in his voice even though he tried to muster up some 'ifs' and 'buts' about late FEB into March....not very convincingly.  

Would not be unheard of for winter weather to be done after what we just went through.   We saw this happen in '89-90 too.

Ugh i hope not. Cfs (can't forecast sh*t) certainly disagrees for Feb and Mar. This area is far enough north that even in that scenario I'm sure we would still see snowstorms but no lasting snowpack. Edit- and looks like that's exactly what happened in 1990. Winter doesn't end in MI by the beginning of Feb. In its worst years it may be on life support but it doesn't end. Hopefully not in OH either.

 

I still prefer the start to winter we have had over risking torches for a possibility of a big snowstorm. But lmao it would be hilarious if jb is wrong. He would never go warm anything ever again.

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3 hours ago, buckeye said:

Looks like we best enjoy whatever father winter throws at us this next week because that rubber band that's been pulling all this unreal arctic air over us is about to snap hard.    JB sounded this morning as though this could be the end of winter once the pattern breaks.   The MJO is about to get lost and meander in 3 and 4 for quite awhile.   

Quite telling that he would risk kickstarting the subscription cancellations of thousands of defeated snow weenies...but sure enough it was in his voice even though he tried to muster up some 'ifs' and 'buts' about late FEB into March....not very convincingly.  

Would not be unheard of for winter weather to be done after what we just went through.   We saw this happen in '89-90 too.

That's quite a change in tone from JB. Only earlier this week he was saying the thaw would come and go...that it would come back by February.

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19 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

That's quite a change in tone from JB. Only earlier this week he was saying the thaw would come and go...that it would come back by February.

You're right.  Which is why I brought it up.  Maybe some one pissed in his cheerios or something or mabye he saw some new guidance that spooked him...but it was definitely not a hopeful tone for any kind of winter come back which is striking coming from Mr winter hype himself.

If you have a wxbell subscription, watch his atmospheric avenger vid.

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I'll go on record and say I don't buy any prolonged torch until the NE Asian vortex that's been driving the -EPO goes away...which won't be anytime soon.  I can certainly buy a milder week or so when other things are unfavorable...but a big torch, no, not for more than a few days.  The -EPO will keep cropping up and it'll get cold again.  The ensembles have really struggled to sniff out longer range cold this winter.  

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I am thinking the rest of January is going to be much like this week. It is not looking like a sustainable torch, but a very up and down pattern...and more active. The models have had a very active outlook towards the end of next week and beyond. They are taking the systems right through our region. Seems like this is more along the lines of what was being predicted for this winter. Hopefully many of us can be on the snowy/cold side of the storm tracks. But I am thinking it is going to be lots of mixed bag storms, starting off with rain and changing to snow.

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3 hours ago, blackrock said:

 The models have had a very active outlook towards the end of next week and beyond. 

Exactly. I'm ready for a prolonged period of no locked in PV or serious torch. Could use an active pattern with some open waves for an extended period of time. We are overdue for that type of pattern

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Although after this last disaster and the constant let downs and disappointments, one thing that atleast can keep me and all of us a little hopeful is the upcoming pattern. Though it may come with increased warmer risks, the gradient may be in our favor between now and early February. Looping and briefly scanning the long-range GEFS, a few things stick out; 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.d3475bd90c1ad00396f376e219efb861.png

1) The ridging near the Aleutians, or commonly referred to as an Aleutian ridge which is a common Nina feature. This may help keep the EPO around neutral, good for sustaining cold anomalies across the west.

2) The trough across the PNW, which is indicative a -PNA pattern. This will help keep the trough centered in a key area that may prove to be beneficial for us, in the right circumstances that is.

3) Ridging around Bermuda, which suggests a potential SE ridge. This is a key feature in Nina's which has been absent this entire winter. This combined with the trough alignment across the west may allow for some gradient pattern to develop. Good for storm development, I hope. :(

4) Ridging around Greenland. This may aide towards developing an Atlantic block (-NAO) which should keep constant cold intrusions across the east and cold anomalies locked across Canada (-AO). 

5) Building trough around the Okhotsk Sea, which is sort of a sign, in laments terms, of colder intrusions down the road. This is in relation to the WPO. 

Winters far from over, but some of you are probably asking, when did it start? :lol: Cold is there, but we just need an active pattern. Storms have been very dismal this winter :(. I don't know, lets see! I personally have zero hope left now, lol. 

 

 

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Thanks for posting that Snowstorms. I feel that the main thing to watch is that little nubbin' of a SE ridge for our subforum. With everything else being equal, wouldn't we want it to be a little more pronounced? Of course we wouldn't want it to flex its' muscles too much. Any comments would be appreciated.

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2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Thanks for posting that Snowstorms. I feel that the main thing to watch is that little nubbin' of a SE ridge for our subforum. With everything else being equal, wouldn't we want it to be a little more pronounced? Of course we wouldn't want it to flex its' muscles too much. Any comments would be appreciated.

Yes otherwise we get systems like today or clippers that blow up at the coast.

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10 hours ago, Stebo said:

Yes otherwise we get systems like today or clippers that blow up at the coast.

 

Why a -NAO is not a good thing for us either.. With that and the PNA with want them near neutral.. Can handle a bit of a -PNA as that is what promotes the se ridge IF the NAO is not negative..

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1 hour ago, Harry said:

 

Why a -NAO is not a good thing for us either.. With that and the PNA with want them near neutral.. Can handle a bit of a -PNA as that is what promotes the se ridge IF the NAO is not negative..

I disagree a bit... I feel like it's easy to get boxed in with whether a particular index is negative or positive, when a lot of it comes down to positioning of key features.  Like, we can get away with a -NAO especially if it's more of an east based one.

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1 hour ago, Harry said:

 

Why a -NAO is not a good thing for us either.. With that and the PNA with want them near neutral.. Can handle a bit of a -PNA as that is what promotes the se ridge IF the NAO is not negative..

-NAO can be good if it is East based, but even then it is limited circumstances.

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32 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I disagree a bit... I feel like it's easy to get boxed in with whether a particular index is negative or positive, when a lot of it comes down to positioning of key features.  Like, we can get away with a -NAO especially if it's more of an east based one.

 

16 minutes ago, Stebo said:

-NAO can be good if it is East based, but even then it is limited circumstances.

 

I hear you guys and agree. I just prefer not to gamble with them in certain configurations.. Yeah the pay off can be huge once in a great while..

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10 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

 

I hear you guys and agree. I just prefer not to gamble with them in certain configurations.. Yeah the pay off can be huge once in a great while..

Yeah, problem is it is hard to get a neutral NAO, usually it is one or the other, that is a hard configuration to pull off as well. To me the key is a weak -PNA though if we want a massive storm. This was close but not enough, still ended up slightly positive PNA.

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