RogueWaves Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: I would like to see a March 2012 type of pattern in mid-late April. SMI had the warmest April on record last year. It was fantastic. Not sure what more peeps are looking for bringing up '12? You want 100+ for 10 days in April? Really?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 If it's not going to snow then bring on the tstorms. We've been lacking those lately too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Yesterday I posted about the drought in the Plains and some western areas of this region... and even some areas outside of the "drought" zone have turned pretty dry. I think we may see this become more noticeable in having an effect on temps once the snow melts. For one thing, a lot of the snow that has occurred has been on the drier side, so not a ton of water content. When it does eventually melt and the water is released, how much of that will be able to soak into the ground is questionable especially because of the extreme cold stretch. Admittedly this is getting out in time but it's easy to see how the groundwork is being laid for some torchy days, especially around/beyond mid month. I've received 8.3" of snow since Xmas Eve, all of it still on the ground. However, there is only 0.44" of liquid in the snow. It will get mowed down in a hurry if next week's storm tracks nw and we get 50s, like this morning's Euro showed. Most locations across the region have less than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2018 Author Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, cmillzz said: If it's not going to snow then bring on the tstorms. We've been lacking those lately too. Yeah, I miss the frequent December/January thunderstorms that are known to occur in the northern states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krfd Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Yeah, I miss the frequent December/January thunderstorms that are known to occur in the northern states. lol looks like around here we're going to lose our little snowpack mid week next week with a rainer, just hope we can get a couple inches laid back down on the backside. things aren't looking good out west, i saw the wasatch front is at the lowest snow level at this point in the season since 1977. looking more and more like the west is going to slip right back into drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Can't wait for the warm up, going to feel refreshing compared to freezing my ass off for the last 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 I'll be snowmobiling with my shirt open next weekend in the UP. Probably mid 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 18z GFS was 0z Euroish but not as strong for next Friday/Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 1 hour ago, snowlover2 said: 18z GFS was 0z Euroish but not as strong for next Friday/Saturday. Ok ill contribute my ,optimistic post of the week. The 12z eps has a pretty strong signal for a classic app runner next weekend. Assuming an event does happen somewhere , it'll probably be the last hoorah before the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 I know all the models are screaming torch(crazy East Asian Jet and all) but I think we all need to relax. A similar warm-up occurred in 2013-2014 and we all remember that Winter. There is way too much of a good thing going with the established cold all around us, including a polar vortex that keeps getting poked and prodded. Honestly, we needed this pattern to change and relax for a second, so we can start getting real storms in this sub. You can already see signs in the models of a more western based trough forming. Patience my friends. Warm Temp Anomaly Winter 13-14.jpg_large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 From the evening of January 6, 2014. 6:45 PM EST. To get what Frog Town was mentioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Frog Town said: I know all the models are screaming torch(crazy East Asian Jet and all) but I think we all need to relax. A similar warm-up occurred in 2013-2014 and we all remember that Winter. There is way too much of a good thing going with the established cold all around us, including a polar vortex that keeps getting poked and prodded. Honestly, we needed this pattern to change and relax for a second, so we can start getting real storms in this sub. You can already see signs in the models of a more western based trough forming. Patience my friends. Warm Temp Anomaly Winter 13-14.jpg_large An epic, historic winter, and yes it was easy to forget that warm week. We went from 16" on the ground January 7th to 4" January 14th, but of course then it was up towards 2 feet by mid-Feb. I dont know how long or short lived this thaw will be, but everyone has to remember that a January thaw is common. No need to write off winter. And maybe it will shake things up for those that have not fared well yet this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 I think people are in a bit of a panic because the pattern went from staying relatively cold next week to all of a sudden a big warm-up in the matter of just a day. Then, you have all the warministas coming out of hibernation mode at the first glimpse of a warmup...and some trolling...that winter is OVER..................... By the way, as an agriculture guy, those hoping for another Morch '12....PLEASE no. That warm up was very hard on plants that budded pre-maturely. Anybody remember fruit prices that summer and fall?!? Almost as high as America's debt to China... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 What a nice interior/east coast special on the GFS for next weekend, lol. Why am I not surprised. If I had to look at it from a bigger perspective, we need all the ridge support we can get from the SE, keeping the gradient pattern locked in, allowing the s/w to become tighter and phase with the oncoming clipper or ride up the Apps. Is that to much to ask for? My hopes of any storm were shattered after 15-16, so don't mind my frustration, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 0Z GFS trended colder on the end of week storm and gives a nice back end thump. Figured it would since the snow pack will moderate temps somewhat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 0z Euro back to the secondary apps runner for next weekend but more east than yesterdays 0z run. Has 4-8" of snow for the eastern half of OH/KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 00z GFS really weakened the whole warm-up. Let's hope this trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Jonger said: 00z GFS really weakened the whole warm-up. Let's hope this trends. Thankfully, the EPS and GEFS still scream warmer than normal temps. Winter is tra$h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 If this verifies it may well be into the 60s even as far north as Wisconsin. Whether it’s 50° or 65° it’ll feel so nice after this ridiculous stretch of garbage cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 3 hours ago, IllinoisWedges said: Thankfully, the EPS and GEFS still scream warmer than normal temps. Winter is tra$h. So you enjoyed the last two weeks I suspect? I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this sudden warm up muted somewhat as we go forward, and see more of an open wave scenario with the late week event. Been the trend for two years running. Do look for a decent stretch of mild pacific air to end out the back half of the month. Good news it's the coldest time of year so we can still get some white stuff. But rest assured, the cold/dry regime will be back for a visit thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 1 minute ago, cmillzz said: If this verifies it may well be into the 60s even as far north as Wisconsin. Whether it’s 50° or 65° it’ll feel like so nice after this ridiculous stretch of garbage cold. Just don't see a strong enough storm to get that done. If so, may not be a bad thing; temperature volatility and mixing extreme air masses can lead to something. My grill is ready to go, and need some warm weather to get the decorations down. It's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 4 hours ago, Jonger said: 00z GFS really weakened the whole warm-up. Let's hope this trends. Lol, your snowpack won’t survive this (06z GFS was the warmest run yet btw). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenBo Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Longtime lurker, first time poster. I agree with some of the posters stating how common small ‘thaws’ are in La Niña winters. Just took a peek at the 0z and 6z GFS and the ‘thaw’ looks less impressive with each subsequent run. The 6z decides to re-open the Arctic gates in the LR. What looks interesting is the possibility of a classic La Niña gradient setting up shop. Let it snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 1 hour ago, cmillzz said: Lol, your snowpack won’t survive this (06z GFS was the warmest run yet btw). I don't care about my snow pack at my own house. The 06z is colder overall with the upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Can't believe we are about to have a January thaw... Warministas rejoice in the victory of warmth and the melt down of localised snow pack. I tend to remember so many big systems brewing in the long term GFS which were just phantom as the dates came and went with no snow to show for it. My thinking is this trend will deliver once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 2 hours ago, cmillzz said: Lol, your snowpack won’t survive this (06z GFS was the warmest run yet btw). Wait...I thought you said a month or so again that it was "NEVER" getting above 50 or something until Spring??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 I liked the 06z GFS better than the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2018 Author Share Posted January 6, 2018 Everybody knows about op runs at such long timeframes. Will want to see a signal on the ensembles that suggests less/shorter duration warmth. The north/northwest areas have the best shot to escape/minimize the warmth, if anybody does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 I can envision some real dense fog issues throughout IN along about Wed/Thur with 40's and 50's over the tundra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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