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Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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Posted
3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

On the 12z Euro Ensemble, still a signal for a storm somewhere in the region Sunday-Monday, but significant spread. Lots to sort out before we can get a sense of any trends it appears.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

Are there a lot of members more focused on the southern energy like the op?

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

I may be in the minority but a settled powder 6 inch snowpack and arctic cold in place all week- I can certainly think of worse ways to start January. I am all for action, but want to avoid any rain. We avoided rain all of December, certainly want to keep that up after this record cold snap. Signal for SOMETHING appears to be good on Sunday. 

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pondo1000

pondo1000

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I may be in the minority but a settled powder 6 inch snowpack and arctic cold in place all week- I can certainly think of worse ways to start January. I am all for action, but want to avoid any rain. We avoided rain all of December, certainly want to keep that up after this record cold snap. Signal for SOMETHING appears to be good on Sunday. 

I’m with you! I love to keep any sort of snowpack I can. I’d take this over a warm rainer any winter day. 

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Chambana

Chambana

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1 hour ago, roardog said:

Bastardi is all about a big thaw between January 20th and February 10th. I don't recall him ever forecasting a big thaw. lol

The CFS runs on 1/1/18 predicted 3 straight months of ridging near Alaska, and an eastern NA trough. Almost sounds like a 2014 Redux.

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Indystorm

Indystorm

Posted
Posted

This snippet from the IND afternoon AFD supports what Hoosier was referencing regarding this storm in an earlier post. 

Long term period will likely feature a brief warmup over the latter
portion of the weekend as heights build and low pressure develops to
our west. This system will move through the area late in the weekend
with a variety of precipitation types possible. Given the recent
extreme cold, this could be disruptive as the ground will not have
much time to warm up before onset of potential precipitation - this
could lead to rapid freezing of any rain on roadways and other
surfaces, even with above freezing air temperatures. Given the
system is so far out, any forecast at this point is low confidence
and will likely change significantly, especially given the models`
recent poor performance with the details of the extreme cold. This
will merit watching as the week wears

 

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UMB WX

UMB WX

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, roardog said:

Bastardi is all about a big thaw between January 20th and February 10th. I don't recall him ever forecasting a big thaw. lol

I feel it to. I have the uttermost faith in mother natures abilities to totally wreck this winter here.   I'm over it not snowing..  Sooo, now she's on to wanting me to hear robins singing in Jan after a snowless deep freeze.

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Stebo

Stebo

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16 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

He is probably just saying that to throw a curve ball to the throngs who like to bash his cold bias lol

Why? He is 100% cold year after year and has been for over a decade. Might be the one time where even he has to call it like it is and that it will be warming up, which god I hope does happen if it isn't going to be snowing.

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Baum

Baum

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Posted

As a weather fan, wouldn't a flip to a warm pacific flow flooding the country after a brutal arctic cold period just be in line with a La Niña winter?  Granted other factors can influence but for our sub forum cold/dry periods followed by mild/dry periods is typical of many La Niña. Personally, I like it being cold in January. Other off topic sidenote is why Stebo has JB as his avatar. :o:lol:

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Baum said:

As a weather fan, wouldn't a flip to a warm pacific flow flooding the country after a brutal arctic cold period just be in line with a La Niña winter?  Granted other factors can influence but for our sub forum cold/dry periods followed by mild/dry periods is typical of many La Niña. Personally, I like it being cold in January.

I would like Dec 1st thru March 15th to have non stop snow cover, but I don't think that is possible at 42N.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

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57 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Why? He is 100% cold year after year and has been for over a decade. Might be the one time where even he has to call it like it is and that it will be warming up, which god I hope does happen if it isn't going to be snowing.

I thought once he went mild. Never follow him though, just go by what is on here. And he DOES always go cold cold cold...so you would think there would be some monster sign for massive torch for him to even mention a thaw, even though a January thaw is normal. And I have seen nothing indicating that. I want the action to return too, but having a winter wonderland landscape in the meantime is right up my alley. Plus it usually finds ways to snow in MI.

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Jonger

Jonger

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3 minutes ago, Baum said:

Much better to be in Michigan during a La Niña especially early in the season.

I'll be watching the long range models and hoping that the Pacific flow look starts to vanish. I don't need it this cold, but I don't want Pacific flow. That kills LES and everything else.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
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18 minutes ago, Baum said:

As a weather fan, wouldn't a flip to a warm pacific flow flooding the country after a brutal arctic cold period just be in line with a La Niña winter?  Granted other factors can influence but for our sub forum cold/dry periods followed by mild/dry periods is typical of many La Niña. Personally, I like it being cold in January. Other off topic sidenote is why Stebo has JB as his avatar. :o:lol:

Usually La Ninas are up and down in general though normally they are a bit more moist than this.

 

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I thought once he went mild. Never follow him though, just go by what is on here. And he DOES always go cold cold cold...so you would think there would be some monster sign for massive torch for him to even mention a thaw, even though a January thaw is normal. And I have seen nothing indicating that. I want the action to return too, but having a winter wonderland landscape in the meantime is right up my alley.

The Euro weeklies are decently warm in the period he is looking, even before it though we are close to the dividing line which would be nice.

As for the snow out there now, it is just 4" of Styrofoam at this point, little to no use in my book.

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roardog

roardog

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Everywhere or mainly east coast?

Everywhere. He’s relying on the MJO rotating through the warm phases, therefore placing a trough from Alaska down to the west coast and blow torching most of the country. He said he expects most places from the plains to the east coast to average 3-5 degrees above average during the period from Jan 20-Feb 10. 

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
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15 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Usually La Ninas are up and down in general though normally they are a bit more moist than this.

 

The Euro weeklies are decently warm in the period he is looking, even before it though we are close to the dividing line which would be nice.

As for the snow out there now, it is just 4" of Styrofoam at this point, little to no use in my book.

Depth is still 5-6" here. LOL thats a new term for it, styrofoam :lmao:. I do like the way it crunches under your feet, its a product of the arctic cold.

 

That period is the dead of winter. A mild pattern isnt always a bad thing. Especially when active. And the dividing line could definitely be fun. Theres an old weather saying that loosely goes something like "You have to be close enough to smell the rain in order to get the heaviest snow". One thing is certain, this winter is not behaving La Nina-like so far.

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cmillzz

cmillzz

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, roardog said:

Everywhere. He’s relying on the MJO rotating through the warm phases, therefore placing a trough from Alaska down to the west coast and blow torching most of the country. He said he expects most places from the plains to the east coast to average 3-5 degrees above average during the period from Jan 20-Feb 10. 

We're going to be feeling the effects of phase 4 I think.

pAFZSAX.png

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

JB's boy crying wolf on snow and cold is well documented.   OTOH, touting warm in winter is something he usually has to be dragged into kicking and screaming.

This is why I would take to the bank his recent and constant beating of a warm turnaround.   As others mentioned, he believes the MJO will drive into phase 4 at a decent amplitude.  The other drum he's beating is the SOI.   It has now gone positive and climbing.

He has said he thinks winter will come back but doesn't seem that confident about it.  Feels when it comes back it will be centered in the central and western US, and will need to fight east.

I'm with Stebo.  If the best we can do during these outbreaks is 5" of styrofoam :lol:, then ill take a torch every time.

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